Core Points - CoreWeave reported Q3 earnings on November 10, highlighting aggressive scaling despite industry capacity constraints [1] - The company expanded its active power footprint by 120 MW sequentially to approximately 590 MW and grew contracted power capacity to 2.9 GW [1][4] - CoreWeave secured $14 billion in debt and equity transactions year to date, with no debt maturities until 2028, except for specific payments [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q3 was $1.36 billion, up from $583.9 million in Q3 2024 [7] - Operating income margin decreased to 4% from 20% in Q3 2024 [7] - Net loss was $110.1 million, an improvement from a net loss of $359.8 million in Q3 2024 [7] - Adjusted EBITDA increased to $838.1 million from $378.8 million in Q3 2024 [7] Guidance and Market Reaction - The company lowered its 2025 revenue guidance by $150 million to a range of $5.05 billion to $5.15 billion, causing a 15% drop in stock price [3] - Analysts noted that the decrease in fiscal year 2025 outlook was due to supply constraints, which are expected to be resolved by Q1 [5] - Capital expenditure guidance was reduced by 40%, from $21.5 billion to $13 billion, indicating a -9% reduction to Q4 expectations [5] Backlog and Demand - Backlog growth was reported at 200% year-over-year, reaching $55 billion, supported by diversified commitments from large companies [6] - Analysts indicated that the delays in powered shell construction were isolated to a single datacenter out of 41, suggesting strong underlying demand [6] Analyst Ratings - Bank of America analysts lowered the price target for CoreWeave stock from $168 to $140, maintaining a neutral rating [8] - The adjustments were based on a 24 multiple estimate for earnings before interest and taxes for calendar year 2027 [8]

Core Insights - The current energy constraints are impacting various sectors, particularly data centers and the commodity market, with significant implications for supply and investment [1][6][9] - A broad bull market in commodities is emerging, with notable increases in prices for gold, base metals, and agricultural products, while crude oil remains a laggard [2][11] - The overall commodity complex has seen a 25% increase this year, indicating physical supply constraints that are affecting market dynamics [3][11] Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market is experiencing a resurgence, with copper prices nearing $11,000 per tonne, which may stimulate new projects, although there is a lack of available projects even at higher price levels [8][14] - Investment in upstream oil projects is lacking, with no new major projects anticipated beyond March next year, leading to a potential supply deficit [5][6] - The focus on returning value to shareholders rather than overspending is creating a supply shortage in the commodity market [6][11] Investment Considerations - The current investment landscape is characterized by a shift towards raw materials and commodity equities, as these are expected to provide better returns amid rising prices [18][20] - The anticipated price for copper could reach $15,000 per tonne in the next 2 to 3 years, driven by demand and supply constraints [14][17] - The volatility of commodities presents both risks and opportunities, with direct ownership of commodities offering potential for short-term gains while equities provide long-term price exposure [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - The current earnings season highlights significant supply constraints across various industries, which is leading to better-than-expected earnings for companies like Intel and others in the tech sector [1][2]. Technology Sector - Intel reported earnings that exceeded expectations due to supply constraints, allowing the company to raise prices, which is advantageous in any industry [2]. - Companies such as SanDisk, Western Digital, and Sea are experiencing strong stock performance due to their pricing power amid supply constraints, which have historically hindered their profitability [3]. - Micron is also noted for its supply constraints, which have led to a reevaluation of demand expectations [5][6]. - AMD's stock rose 7.6% following discussions about its supply constraints and partnerships in quantum computing [4]. Aerospace Industry - Boeing is expected to report on supply constraints affecting all its aircraft, particularly the 737 models, due to regulatory challenges and past mishaps [7]. - Major suppliers to Boeing, including General Electric, RTX, and Honeywell, are benefiting from increased demand for aircraft and maintenance services [7]. Energy Sector - Genova is highlighted for its supply constraints in power equipment, particularly large turbines used in data centers, suggesting potential for growth [8]. - The high cost of these machines, which can reach up to $100 million, positions Genova favorably in the market [9]. Precious Metals - The supply of gold remains constrained despite high prices, with foreign supplies becoming increasingly difficult to access due to tougher terms from host countries [10][11]. - The overall trend indicates a persistent imbalance between demand and supply across multiple industries, which is favorable for stock performance [11].