券 2026 年 2 月 4 日星期三 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 1 证 研 究 报 告 美国众议院批准政府融资法案，结束局部停摆 美联储理事米兰：今年需要降息不止 100 个基点 美国贸易代表：印度同意降低对美关税 澳洲联储宣布加息 25 个基点至 3.85%，为 2023 年以来的 首次加息 "十五五"首个中央一号文件正式发布 游戏、金融等行业增值税税率上调传闻不实 工信部部署未来产业，攻坚 6G、量子、脑机接口等领域 1 月 A 股新开户数同比增长 213% SpaceX 收购 xAI，史上最贵独角兽诞生 AMD Q4 数据中心收入猛增近 40%，收入预测不及市场预 期 2 年期美债收益率涨 0.01 个基点报 3.570% 5 年期美债收益率跌 0.34 个基点报 3.832% 10 年期美债收益率跌 0.59 个基点报 4.266% | 重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Group 1 - The account is managed by Noah's Arc Capital Management, focusing on providing Wall Street-level insights to main street investors [1] - The research primarily targets 20th-century stocks undergoing transformation in the 21st century, as well as companies that facilitate these transformations [1] - The goal is to identify innovations in business models that could lead to significant stock price changes [1] Group 2 - Noah Cox is the managing partner of Noah's Arc Capital Management, and his views may not necessarily reflect those of the firm [3] - The article is intended solely for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice [3]

Core Insights - Alphabet (GOOGL) stock has been performing well following a lenient sentencing in its Department of Justice case last fall [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The stock of Alphabet (GOOGL) has been soaring recently, indicating positive market sentiment and investor confidence [1] Group 2: Management and Strategy - Noah's Arc Capital Management, which manages the account mentioned, focuses on providing insights to main street investors, particularly on 20th-century stocks undergoing transformation in the 21st century [1]

Core Viewpoint - IBM is positioned as a strong player in the AI sector, with RBC Capital maintaining an Outperform rating and a price target of $350.00 ahead of its earnings report [1][3]. Group 1: Earnings Expectations - RBC anticipates solid results from IBM, expecting an increase in overall revenue and free cash flow [2]. - Investors are particularly focused on whether IBM can sustain its recent momentum as earnings are reported [2]. - The software revenue subcomponents will be closely monitored, with Red Hat facing pressure but expected to recover and contribute to growth by fiscal 2026 [2]. Group 2: Investment Perspective - RBC views IBM as a defensive AI investment, highlighting its exposure to hybrid cloud, AI, and long-term opportunities in quantum computing [3]. - The firm continues to favor IBM as a defensive play in the AI market, maintaining its Outperform rating and price target [3].

Group 1 - IonQ is acquiring SkyWater for $35 per share in a cash-and-stock deal [1]

Funding and Support - The Novo Nordisk Foundation has allocated up to DKK 5.5 billion (EUR 736 million) to the BioInnovation Institute (BII) to expand its activities and support more entrepreneurs and start-ups from 2026 to 2035 [1] - BII has already created and developed over 130 companies and attracted more than DKK 7 billion in external funding, aiming to enhance Denmark's innovation engine and European competitiveness [3][10] Strategic Focus - BII plans to significantly increase the number of start-ups supported each year, with a focus on life science and biotech, while also venturing into new fields such as AI and quantum technologies [4] - The funding will enable BII to strengthen its position as a European innovation powerhouse, translating scientific breakthroughs into new companies and solutions [5][8] Partnerships and Collaborations - BII has established partnerships with major organizations, including Ferring and the Gates Foundation, to advance women's health innovation and support early-stage start-ups in Power-to-X technologies and brain disease treatment [9] - The renewed support from the Novo Nordisk Foundation will enhance BII's ability to collaborate with academic institutions and form new partnerships with industry and foundations [10] Innovation Ecosystem - Since BII's establishment in 2018, venture capital investments in Danish biotech have increased more than fourfold, indicating a successful platform for innovation [6] - BII serves as a hub for connecting Denmark's life science ecosystem with leading innovation districts across Europe, leveraging its strong national platform for broader European expansion [7]

Core Insights - MKS Inc. (MKSI) shares have increased by 41.7% over the past three months, significantly outperforming the Zacks Electronics – Miscellaneous Products industry's growth of 11.5% and the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector's return of 5% [1][10] - The company is experiencing growth due to rising demand in semiconductor, electronics, and packaging markets, particularly in AI-related applications and NAND upgrades [1][10] Company Developments - MKS is set to showcase its latest Photonics Solutions at Photonics West 2026 in San Francisco, highlighting advancements from its brands Newport, Ophir, and Spectra-Physics, which will enhance its presence in AI, quantum, biophotonics, and security applications [2] - The "Surrounding the Workpiece" strategy is employed by MKS to optimize manufacturing precision and accelerate innovation through comprehensive product offerings, system integration, and lifecycle management [3] - The semiconductor business is expected to benefit from a strong portfolio and an improving market environment, with growth noted in chemistry and chemistry equipment businesses [4] Financial Performance and Guidance - MKS anticipates fourth-quarter 2025 revenues to be approximately $990 million, with a potential variance of $40 million, indicating a 6.1% growth compared to the previous year [5] - The expected adjusted earnings for the fourth quarter are projected at $2.27 per share, with a growth of 4.6% from the same quarter last year [6] - For the full year 2025, the revenue consensus estimate stands at $3.89 billion, reflecting an 8.4% increase from 2024, while the earnings consensus is $7.62 per share, indicating a growth of 15.8% from 2024 [7] Market Position - MKS currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating a favorable outlook compared to other stocks in the sector [8] - Other top-ranked stocks in the sector include Micron Technology, Ciena, and Amphenol, which have also shown significant price increases in the past three months [9]

Group 1: Investment Themes - The four key investment themes for 2026 are artificial intelligence (AI), quantum, nuclear, and space, with a focus on quantum as a promising area for growth [2][3] - Freedom Capital Markets Chief Market Strategist Jay Woods predicts lower gains for the S&P 500 in 2026 compared to 2025, emphasizing the potential of quantum stocks due to ongoing contract awards [2] Group 2: Company Insights - Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ:RGTI) is identified as a notable quantum stock, with Woods having sold 70% of his initial holdings after a significant price increase but still maintaining interest in the sector [3] - Salesforce Inc (NYSE:CRM) and Adobe Inc (NASDAQ:ADBE) are highlighted as companies in the AI space, with Salesforce facing challenges despite initial promise and Adobe experiencing competitive pressures [4][5] - Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU), and Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ:AVGO) are recognized as companies performing well in the AI sector, indicating a need for more research when investing in AI-related stocks [5][6]

Market Overview - The Dow is up approximately 270 points, with the S&P 500 increasing by about 0.3% and the NASDAQ rising by 0.2% [1][2]. - All three major indices are on track for five consecutive days of gains, indicating a potential Santa rally [2]. Sector Performance - Leading sectors include real estate, financials, consumer staples, healthcare, and industrials, contributing to the gains in the NASDAQ 100 [3]. - Notable stock movements include Apple up 1%, Amazon and Meta slightly higher, and Micron increasing by over 3% [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are above $4,500 per troy ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 70%, while silver futures are up 140% [4][5]. - Central banks have been purchasing gold, and expectations of easing rates have contributed to the gold rally [5]. - Some strategists warn of potential volatility, citing historical patterns where significant price increases were followed by sharp declines [6][7]. AI and Technology Outlook - The prevalence of AI has significantly impacted market dynamics, with many companies in the S&P 500 benefiting from AI advancements [9]. - The focus is shifting towards the "magnificent 493" companies, which are expected to harness AI for improved efficiency and growth [12]. - Companies like Broadcom are well-positioned in the AI sector, with expectations of doubling their AI business by 2026 [20]. Healthcare Sector - The healthcare sector is anticipated to see long-term growth, particularly in recurring revenue businesses that provide tools to the healthcare industry [22][23]. - Companies like Thermo Fisher and Agilent Metler Toledo are highlighted as key players benefiting from improving demand [22]. Defense Sector - The defense industry is expected to experience significant growth, particularly with European NATO spending projected to triple over the next decade [25]. - Companies with strong recurring revenue models in the defense sector, such as Haiko and General Electric, are well-positioned to benefit from this trend [25][26]. IPO Market Outlook - 2026 is anticipated to be a significant year for IPOs, with a backlog of solid private companies ready to go public [34]. - Factors contributing to optimism include a stable market environment, declining interest rates, and successful high-profile IPOs potentially driving further interest [36][39]. Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin is currently trading between $85,000 and $90,000, struggling to regain momentum after a sharp decline from its record high [31][32]. - The cryptocurrency market is facing challenges, with regulatory developments impacting sentiment [102].

Semiconductor Industry Overview - Semiconductor is ubiquitous, powering AI, EVs, 5G, and cloud services, making them essential for modern technology [12][16][17] - The industry is experiencing rapid growth, driven by increasing demand for chips in various applications, from automotive to consumer electronics [13][15] - India is emerging as a semiconductor hub, particularly Gujarat, with investments in manufacturing and packaging facilities [37][38] Transistor Technology and Advancements - Transistors are fundamental to computation, acting as on/off switches to process and store information using binary code [19][20] - The number of transistors on a chip has increased dramatically over the years, with AI chips now containing hundreds of billions of transistors [23][24] - Moore's Law observes that the number of transistors on a chip doubles approximately every 18 months, while the size and cost decrease [26] India's Role in the Semiconductor Industry - India designs 20% of the chips globally, with a significant number of Indian engineers working in the US semiconductor industry [31][32] - The country is attracting investments in semiconductor manufacturing and packaging, aiming to become a major player in the global market [27][29] - The government's progressive policies are facilitating the growth of the semiconductor industry in India [37] Quantum Computing - Quantum computing is poised to have a significant impact in the future, with potential applications across various industries [10] - Key concepts in quantum computing include superposition, entanglement, and dual wave theory [9] - Understanding semiconductors is crucial for grasping the principles of quantum computing [11][17]