19 May 2025 | 12:05PM CST China Consumer Durables Refreshing tariff analysis & estimates after US/China tariff rollback On May 12, following trade talks in Geneva, the US and China issued a joint statement agreeing to de-escalate trade tensions and establish ongoing dialogue on economic and trade relations. Specifically, the US will cancel tariffs from later retaliatory rounds and suspend 24pp of the 34% "reciprocal" tariffs for an initial 90 days (effective May 14), while maintaining the 10pp remaining tar ...

14 May 2025 | 10:39PM HKT Tariff turnover; reverting to our pre-Liberation Day base case Kinger Lau, CFA +852-2978-1224 | kinger.lau@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. China Musings 1. After the two-day trade talks in Switzerland over the past weekend, on May 12, the US and China announced a 90-day pause in retaliatory tariffs imposed in April. The effective US tariff rate on Chinese goods will be lowered from 107% to 39% starting May 14, whereas the import levy from the US to China will be cut to 30% from ...

13 May 2025 | 5:53PM HKT China: Raising GDP forecasts on larger-than-expected tariff rollbacks Bottom line: We had assumed that the US-China trade talks in Geneva would reduce tariff rates on Chinese products from >100% to 50-60%. The joint announcement released on Monday (May 12) indicated larger-than-expected tariff rollbacks, with US tariffs on Chinese goods dropping to 30% for 90 days. Although the forward path of tariffs remains uncertain, we now expect Chinese real exports to be roughly flat in 2025/2 ...

12 May 2025 | 9:55AM HKT China: Exports resilient into early Q2; pushing back our policy easing assumptions Bottom line: Chinese exports surprised to the upside in April due to trade re-routing. Both the US and China said trade talks in Geneva on May 10-11 were "constructive". Although we still forecast a material export slowdown in coming months, it is happening more slowly than we initially anticipated. We recently adjusted our export volume growth forecast for 2025 to -5% from -10% previously. This reduc ...