Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry or specific companies covered Core Insights - The recent US-China tariff rollback is expected to benefit covered companies directly through reduced tariff costs and indirectly through lower inflation and potentially higher household cash flows [2][4] - The report anticipates that the 90-day window for tariff negotiations may lead to faster-than-expected export growth in Q2 and Q3 as Chinese OEMs resume production for US orders [4] - The report highlights that different companies will have varying impacts from the tariff changes, with OEMs likely to maintain profitability-focused strategies while brands may adopt divergent pricing strategies [6][10] Summary by Sections Tariff Rollback Impact - The US will reduce its tariff increase on China from 145 basis points to 30 basis points, while China will lower its effective tariff rate on US imports to around 30% [1][2] - The tariff rollback is larger than previously expected, leading to revised GDP forecasts for both the US and China [2] Company-Specific Impacts - Companies like Xinbao are expected to see faster revenue growth due to their leading position in the small appliances sector, while brands like Anker, Roborock, and Ecovacs may experience limited revenue changes in the current quarter but better growth in H2 2025 [6][21] - The report revises EPS forecasts for Anker, Xinbao, Roborock, and Ecovacs upwards by 2%-9% for 2025-2027, reflecting the alleviation of demand and margin pressures [21][23] Capital Expenditure and Production Strategies - Limited changes in CAPEX plans are expected in the near term due to ongoing uncertainty regarding future tariff rates [5] - Companies are likely to continue leveraging ASEAN countries for manufacturing, depending on future US tariff rates on the region [5] Share Price and Valuation - Share prices of covered companies rebounded after initial corrections, with major white goods companies expected to be least impacted due to diversified production bases [10][11] - The report notes divergent performance across sub-sectors, with some companies like Anker facing greater downside risks despite a rebound in share prices [11][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a real GDP growth forecast of 4% for 2025, with a revised export volume growth forecast for 2025 adjusted to -5% from -10% previously, indicating a more resilient export performance than initially expected [1][3]. Core Insights - Chinese exports showed unexpected strength in April, with a year-over-year increase of 8.1% in USD terms, which was significantly above market expectations. This resilience is attributed to trade re-routing and front-loading activities during a temporary tariff pause [2][3]. - The report suggests that the better-than-expected export performance reduces immediate pressure on Beijing for aggressive policy easing, with the next critical milestone for potential easing being the July Politburo meeting [4][9]. - The forecast for overall real domestic demand growth has been slightly lowered to 4.5% for 2025, down from 5.0%, reflecting a delay in the rotation towards domestic demand due to sustained export strength [9][21]. Summary by Sections Export Performance - The report highlights that despite weaker signals from manufacturing PMIs, actual trade data showed resilience, with exports expected to decline by 5% in 2025, a revision from a previous forecast of -10% [3][4]. - The net export contribution to GDP is now forecasted at -0.5 percentage points, an improvement from the earlier estimate of -1.0 percentage points [3]. Policy Outlook - Following recent monetary policy adjustments, including a 50 basis point cut in the reserve requirement ratio and a 10 basis point policy rate cut, the report anticipates further policy rate cuts of 20 basis points for the remainder of the year [4][8]. - The augmented fiscal deficit is projected to widen from 10.4% of GDP in 2024 to 13.5% in 2025, indicating a more significant fiscal stimulus than previously expected [8][16]. Inflation and Trade Uncertainty - The report anticipates continued PPI deflation, with forecasts for PPI inflation at -2.1% for 2025 and -0.6% for 2026, reflecting sluggish domestic demand and overcapacity in various industries [10][19]. - There remains high uncertainty regarding US-China trade relations, with expectations that bilateral tariffs may decrease from current levels of over 100% to around 50-60% in the near future [11][20].