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Buy, Sell, or Hold FedEx Stock as Its Q4 Earnings Approach?
ZACKS· 2025-06-23 22:46
Core Insights - FedEx is set to report its fiscal fourth quarter results, providing insights into the transportation industry's delivery services amid tariff-related challenges [1][3] - The company is actively assisting customers with international logistics to navigate the evolving tariff landscape [2] FedEx's Q4 Expectations & Outlook - FedEx's Q4 sales are expected to decline by over 1% to $21.73 billion from $22.11 billion in the same quarter last year, while earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise by 9% to $5.93 from $5.41 [3] - For fiscal year 2025, total sales are anticipated to decrease slightly by less than 0.5% to $87.44 billion, with a rebound projected for FY26, increasing by 2% to $89.41 billion [4] Performance and Earnings History - FedEx has missed sales estimates in three of the last four quarters and earnings expectations in two of the last four quarters, with an average EPS surprise of -5.79% [5] - The reported EPS for the last four quarters were 4.51, 4.05, 3.60, and 5.41, compared to estimates of 4.65, 3.90, 4.82, and 5.34 respectively [5] Stock Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, FedEx stock has fallen nearly 20%, underperforming the broader market and trailing competitors like GXO Logistics, which has gained 12% [6] - FedEx is trading at a forward earnings multiple of 11.5X, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 23X and also below UPS's 14X and GXO Logistics' 19X [7] Dividend Appeal - FedEx offers a 2.44% annual dividend yield, which, while lower than UPS's 6.61%, exceeds the S&P 500's average of 1.25% [9] - The company has demonstrated a strong annualized dividend growth rate of 21.96% over the past five years, with a payout ratio of 31%, indicating potential for future increases [9] Current Market Position - Ahead of its Q4 results, FedEx holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting that while it presents value, investors may want to wait for confirmation of overcoming tariff-related challenges [12]
How Will Dip in Q2 IB Revenues & Trading Surge Impact BAC's Fee Income?
ZACKS· 2025-06-12 15:16
Core Insights - Bank of America (BAC) CEO Brian Moynihan highlighted anticipated weakness in investment banking (IB) fees for Q2, while trading revenues are expected to show strength [1][9]. Investment Banking Fees - BAC expects IB fees to decline over 20% year-over-year in Q2 due to tariff-related challenges affecting deal-making sentiment [2][9]. - In Q1, BAC reported IB fees of $1.52 billion, a 3% decline, primarily due to a drop in equity underwriting income, although higher advisory and debt underwriting revenues provided some offset [2]. Trading Revenues - BAC projects trading revenues to grow in the mid-to-high single-digit range for Q2, marking the 13th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth [3][9]. - Last quarter, BAC's sales and trading revenues reached $5.65 billion, the highest in a decade, with a consensus estimate of $5.11 billion for Q2, indicating a 9% year-over-year growth [3][4]. Non-Interest Income - Sales and trading account for approximately 43% of BAC's fee income, which is expected to help mitigate the pressure from declining IB fees, leading to a projected 2% increase in non-interest income to $11.87 billion [4][9]. Peer Comparisons - JPMorgan (JPM) anticipates mid-to-high single-digit growth in market revenues for Q2, while expecting IB fees to decline in the mid-teens range [5]. - Citigroup (C) expects a mid-single-digit increase in IB fees due to a rebound in deal-making activities, alongside similar growth projections for trading revenues [6]. Stock Performance - BAC shares have increased by 12.8% over the past three months, compared to JPMorgan's 19.1% and Citigroup's 16.6% increases [7]. Valuation and Earnings Estimates - BAC trades at a 12-month trailing price-to-tangible book (P/TB) ratio of 1.69X, which is below the industry average [10]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates year-over-year earnings growth of 12.2% for 2025 and 15.3% for 2026, with slight upward revisions for 2025 estimates and minor downward adjustments for 2026 [12].