Americans who receive money from the federal government may soon notice a shift in how those payments are delivered. The IRS is moving many federal disbursements away from paper checks and toward electronic options. That includes tax refunds and other government payments, meaning any future stimulus payments would likely follow the same process. The new change could impact your stimulus payments. Here are five things you should know. Paper Checks Are Being Phased Out Under a recent IRS policy update, t ...

Extra money might be headed your way from the federal government. This could take a few different forms in 2026, but your tax refund will likely be the starting point. Find out below what you can expect and what the pros are saying is actually possible. Also wanting to know more about potential stimulus checks? Find out more here. Larger Tax Returns as a Stimulus? In 2025, the IRS refunded a total of $328.88 billion to taxpayers — as of Dec. 26, 2025 — according to the IRS. The average tax refund was $ ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company originated 16% more in new customer volume during the quarter, resulting in a 25% increase in outstanding ledger for active new customers compared to the same quarter last year [3] - Yields improved by 84 basis points year-over-year, indicating an increase in income [4] - Organic growth in ledger was 2.4% year-over-year, a recovery from a decline of 2.4% last year [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The first pay defaults for new customers are 19% lower compared to the same period in fiscal 2022, indicating improved credit performance [4][5] - The average outstanding loan balance declined by approximately 2.5% year-over-year due to stricter underwriting and larger investments in new customers [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The customer base has grown organically by around 5.4% year-over-year, a significant increase from 2.2% last year [5] - The company has seen substantial improvement in tax filing volume and revenue year-over-year, with expectations for larger tax refunds this year due to tax law changes [9][14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on improving branch operations and personnel management, with a commitment to long-term profitability and soundness of the portfolio [7][10] - There is an ongoing strategy to reduce headcount by 3%-5% in field-level offices, following an increase to build a quality team in anticipation of turnover [19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management has not observed any degradation in collections or credit quality, with a slight increase in demand noted [13] - The company remains optimistic about the upcoming tax filing season, expecting increased demand and larger refunds [14] Other Important Information - The company has repurchased nearly 600,000 shares, reducing outstanding shares by 11% in the first nine months of the year, with a remaining capacity for repurchases of over $60 million [8] - The current ice storm has affected operations in approximately 10 states, but management remains optimistic about revenue growth [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on the health of the underlying consumer and outlook into tax refund season - Management has not seen a degradation in collections or credit quality, with an increase in demand and expectations for larger tax refunds this year [13][14] Question: Growth in G&A and future trends - Management expects to see a decrease in incentive compensation expenses starting in Q4, following a share-based comp grant last December [16] Question: Increase and subsequent decrease in headcount - The increase was to build a quality team in anticipation of turnover, with a reduction expected to occur quickly within the current quarter [19] Question: Implications of a 10% cap on credit cards - Management believes there would be a severe reduction in access to credit cards for lower credit scores, potentially increasing demand for installment loans [22][23]

Financial Performance - Costco's revenue and earnings have grown at CAGRs of 9.18% and 13.26% over the past 10 years, with the most recent quarter showing a beat on both revenue and earnings [1][6] - For the first quarter ended Nov. 23, 2025, Costco's total revenue was $67.3 billion, an increase of 8.3% year-over-year, and earnings per share rose to $4.50, exceeding expectations of $4.27 [6] - Net cash from operating activities increased to $4.7 billion from $3.3 billion in the prior year, with a cash balance of $16.2 billion and no short-term debt [7] Stock Valuation and Ratings - Costco's market cap is $436.4 billion, with the stock up 5% over the past year and a current dividend yield of 0.53% [2] - Analysts have assigned a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" for COST stock, with a mean target price of $1,043.32, indicating an upside potential of about 6.1% from current levels [8] Business Model and Market Position - Founded in 1983, Costco operates a membership-only wholesale club model, offering a wide range of products at low prices and is a global leader in membership warehouse retailing [3] - The company has been raising dividends consecutively for 21 years, with a payout ratio of just under 30%, indicating room for growth [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that tax refunds are expected to be significantly higher this year, with many Americans seeking the fastest method to receive their refunds through electronic direct deposit [1][2] - Approximately 75% of Americans typically receive tax refunds, with the average refund in 2025 reported at $2,939. This year, refunds could increase by as much as 30% due to new provisions from President Trump's tax and spending bill [2] - The IRS aims to increase the percentage of taxpayers receiving refunds via direct deposit, as it is the fastest and safest method, having phased out paper checks for individual taxpayers since September 30 [3] Group 2 - Nine out of ten taxpayers currently receive refunds through direct deposit, which is over 16 times less likely to be lost, stolen, altered, or delayed compared to paper checks [3] - To sign up for direct deposit, taxpayers using tax software need to select direct deposit and provide their bank account and routing numbers [4] - Taxpayers using a tax preparer should inform their preparer of their preference for direct deposit, while those filing paper returns must mark direct deposit and ensure their information is accurate to avoid delays [5][6] Group 3 - For individuals without a bank account, options include finding a bank through the FDIC website or the National Credit Union Administration, as accounts can typically be opened quickly [7] - Refunds can also be deposited onto reloadable prepaid debit cards or mobile apps, which may have different routing and account numbers from the card number [8]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is expected to receive a boost as working households may receive tax refunds of up to $1,000 [1] Group 1 - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent highlighted the potential for tax refunds to positively impact working households [1]

Millions of Americans may see the "largest tax refunds of their lives" due to President Donald Trump's forward-thinking reforms, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Jan. 8. In 2025, the president laid the foundation for powerful economic growth with the historic passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which is actually the "Working Families Tax Cut Act," he added. Bessent made the remarks while addressing the Economic Club of Minnesota. Related: Treasury Secretary predicts historic ...

Core Insights - The IRS is undergoing significant changes in leadership and operational structure, with Frank Bisignano appointed as CEO while retaining his role as commissioner of the Social Security Administration [1] - The 2026 tax season is expected to have unique characteristics due to job cuts and leadership turnover within the IRS in 2025, potentially leading to delays in tax refunds for early filers [2][3] - New tax rules introduced by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act are expected to significantly impact tax refunds, with projections indicating that average refunds could increase substantially for many taxpayers [12][17] IRS Leadership and Structure - Frank Bisignano has been named CEO of the IRS, reporting to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is currently acting IRS commissioner [1] - The IRS has faced significant job cuts and turnover in leadership, which may affect its operations during the upcoming tax season [2] Tax Season 2026 Expectations - The official start date for the 2026 tax season has not yet been announced, but it is typically revealed in January [4] - Tax experts anticipate a possible delay in the kickoff of the tax season, which could affect the timing of tax refunds for early filers [3] Changes in Tax Refund Processing - The IRS will no longer issue tax refunds by paper check for most individual taxpayers, requiring direct deposit for refunds [5] - Taxpayers will need to file a new Schedule 1-A to claim key tax breaks, which will only be available in finalized form [5][12] New Tax Breaks and Deductions - Significant changes in tax rules for 2025 federal income tax returns include new deductions for overtime pay, tip income, and auto loan interest, which may lead to larger refunds for some taxpayers [11][20] - The new tax breaks come with specific income thresholds and phase-out rules that taxpayers must navigate [20] Projected Refund Changes - The Tax Foundation estimates that average refunds could increase by $300 to $1,000 due to the new tax cuts, potentially raising average refunds to upwards of $4,000 under favorable conditions [17][18] - The IRS has not adjusted withholding tables following the new law, meaning many taxpayers may receive larger refunds at tax filing rather than through increased take-home pay during the year [15] Direct Deposit Requirements - Taxpayers will be required to provide direct deposit information for their refunds, with options available for those without bank accounts [19][21] - Failure to provide direct deposit information may result in delayed refunds, as the IRS will issue paper checks only after certain conditions are met [22][24]

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential for large tax refunds in early 2026, which could resemble pandemic stimulus checks, raising concerns about inflation and consumer demand [1][2][10]. Tax Refunds as Stimulus - David Kelly from J.P. Morgan Asset Management suggests that upcoming tax refunds may function similarly to stimulus payments, potentially boosting consumer demand and inflation [2][10]. - Refunds are expected to be substantial due to retroactive tax cuts from a previous tax bill, impacting income earned in 2025 [4][5]. Details on Tax Cuts - Retroactive tax cuts include the elimination of taxes on tips, overtime, and car loan interest, along with increased deductions for state and local taxes, a new bonus deduction for retirees, and permanent increases in the standard deduction and child tax credit [5][6]. Expected Refund Amounts - An estimated 166 million individual income tax returns are expected to be processed, with around 104 million taxpayers projected to receive an average refund of $3,278 [7]. Additional Stimulus Predictions - Kelly anticipates that additional direct stimulus payments may be introduced to counteract potential economic slowdowns later in the year, possibly in the form of tariff rebate checks or other incentives [9]. Economic Implications - The influx of cash from tax refunds and potential additional payments could exacerbate inflationary pressures, complicating the economic landscape and influencing Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [10][11].

Economic Overview - The jobless claims numbers indicate a slight decrease in initial claims year-over-year, down about 1 to 2 percentage points, while continuing claims have increased by approximately 1.5%, which are not concerning figures [1] - The unemployment rate may be overstated, with a gradual rise being observed, leading to discussions on whether the slowdown in the labor market is demand-driven or supply-driven [1] GDP and Labor Market Dynamics - GDP growth is showing a decent trend, particularly in capital expenditure investment, which is being driven by AI and other factors [1] - The labor market is characterized by low hiring and low firing rates, suggesting uncertainty in economic policy is affecting employer decisions [1] Future Projections - An acceleration in the job market is anticipated if economic policy becomes more certain, potentially leading to an increase in GDP growth due to significant tax refunds estimated at 50 to 60 billion, acting as a stimulus [1] - The first half of next year is projected to see an annualized growth rate of 2.8%, while the second half remains uncertain [1] Labor Market Tightening - There are signs of tightening in the labor market, particularly in sectors like construction, where employment is down but wage growth is beginning to inflect [1] - The NFIB survey indicates an increase in the percentage of respondents citing quality of labor as a significant issue, which had been declining for two years [1] Federal Reserve Policy Considerations - The Federal Reserve is currently divided between those advocating for further rate cuts to address downside risks and those suggesting a wait-and-see approach due to ongoing inflation concerns [1] - The interaction of various economic policies, including immigration, adds complexity to the Fed's decision-making process regarding interest rates [1]