Gold's Decline Seen as Healthy Correction After 'Irrational' RallyCONCLUDED[S&P 500 Flirts With New Closing High]Last Updated:---12 hours ago# Gold's Decline Seen as Healthy Correction After 'Irrational' RallyByMegan Cheah, Dow Jones NewswiresGold's recent pullback is a healthy technical correction following an "irrational" rally seen in previous days, said Yuxuan Tang of J.P. Morgan Private Bank.The move has flushed out speculative positioning and brought prices back to levels seen about two weeks ago—stil ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has experienced a significant and rapid decline, with domestic gold prices dropping from 1240 CNY/gram to a low of 1099 CNY/gram within two days, marking a daily drop of over 10% [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - The decline is not isolated, as the international market also faced turmoil, with London spot gold falling nearly 450 USD/ounce after reaching a historical high of 5600 USD/ounce, resulting in a maximum daily drop of over 8% [3] - The market is undergoing a systemic sell-off in the precious metals sector, affecting New York futures and Shanghai gold futures [3] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The core trigger for this downturn is the shift in Federal Reserve policy, which has signaled a hawkish stance, significantly reducing the probability of interest rate cuts in the first half of the year, thus breaking previous market expectations for easing [5] - The strong rebound of the US dollar index and rising US Treasury yields have diminished the value of gold as a non-yielding asset, highlighting the "see-saw" effect between the dollar and gold [5] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The market was due for a correction after a substantial increase in gold prices, which rose over 30% since the beginning of the year, with the daily RSI indicator exceeding 90, indicating extreme overbought conditions [7] - The breach of key support levels triggered a chain reaction of stop-loss orders and leveraged liquidations, leading to a rapid decline in gold prices [7] Group 4: Market Sentiment - Market sentiment has shifted dramatically, with previous scenes of consumers eagerly purchasing gold bars and jewelry now replaced by a cautious and fearful outlook, as retail gold prices dropped nearly 100 CNY in a single day [9] - Investors are torn between the decision to buy the dip or remain on the sidelines, with leveraged traders facing significant losses and frequent short-term liquidations [9] Group 5: Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that this decline is a technical correction rather than the end of a gold bull market, as global inflation remains sticky and geopolitical tensions have not fully eased, preserving gold's safe-haven and anti-inflation attributes [11] - Ordinary investors are advised against blindly buying the dip, emphasizing the need to control positions and gradually enter the market, while long-term investors should consider their risk tolerance and diversify their entry points [11] Group 6: Future Considerations - The precious metals market is undergoing volatility, and rationality is emphasized as a key investment principle, with a focus on monitoring Federal Reserve policy, dollar index trends, and non-farm inflation data to navigate market dynamics [12]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a slight decline in early Asian trading, attributed to a likely technical correction following a significant increase of 2.8% in front-month Comex gold futures during the previous trading session [1] Group 1 - Gold edged lower in early Asian trade [1] - The decline is seen as a technical correction after a notable increase [1] - Front-month Comex gold futures settled 2.8% higher overnight [1]

Core Viewpoint - Oil futures experienced a slight decline in the morning Asian session, likely due to a technical correction following a significant increase of 2.6% in WTI and Brent crude oil futures on Monday [1] Group 1 - WTI and Brent crude oil futures settled 2.6% higher on Monday [1] - The decline in oil futures during the Asian session is attributed to a probable technical correction [1]

Core Insights - The value of gold experienced a significant drop of over 5%, marking the largest single-day decline in more than a decade, as investors retreat from a recent buying frenzy [1] - Silver and platinum also saw declines after substantial gains earlier in the year, indicating a broader sell-off in precious metals [2] Gold Market Analysis - Gold futures fell by 5.2% to approximately $4,130, with earlier losses reaching 6.3%, the largest intraday drop since June 2013 [1] - Analysts suggest that the market is undergoing a "technical correction" after a rapid expansion of investors seeking safer assets [2] Silver and Platinum Market Analysis - Silver and platinum futures have risen 60% and 66% respectively this year, but have recently declined by 6.7% and 7.2% [2] - Analysts warn of potential volatility in silver prices due to increasing liquidity and falling demand, despite its continued favor among investors [5] Economic Influences - The strengthening U.S. dollar, which rose by 0.4% on Tuesday, typically leads to lower gold prices as it makes bullion more expensive for overseas investors [3] - Economic and policy uncertainties, including tariffs and inflation, have driven metals' prices higher this year [6] Future Price Predictions - Bank of America has set a bullish price target for gold at $5,000 per ounce by 2026, while HSBC raised its 2025 target to $3,950 [4] - For silver, Bank of America increased its target to $65 per ounce, with expectations of continued price rises amid potential government shutdowns and interest rate cuts [5] Market Sentiment - Analysts expect more volatility and downside risk for silver compared to gold, which benefits from central bank demand [7] - Platinum's rise is attributed to strong demand from jewelers and automakers, indicating a diverse interest in precious metals [7]