German Economy & Sentiment - German economy sentiment is powered by expectations of a deal with the US and reduced uncertainty about tariffs [1] - German government's debt package, including an infrastructure fund and tax incentives, is expected to boost investment [2] - Investment goods producers are showing improved data, indicating a positive impact from domestic factors [2] Trade & Tariffs - A stable 15% tariff deal between Europe and the US would be something German exporters could live with, avoiding a massive negative impact [3][4] - While not ideal for Europe, a 15% tariff deal would be an improvement compared to recent months, given the threat of higher tariffs [5] - Exports will become more difficult compared to the pre-Trump era [4] Investment & CapEx - Changes in tax incentives, prospects of higher infrastructure investment, and increased defense spending are currently driving CapEx [7] - Uncertainty is causing companies to postpone projects; a trade resolution could unlock pent-up CapEx spending into 2026 [6][8] - The reliability of the US government in upholding trade deals remains a key concern for investment decisions [8]