Summary of J.P. Morgan Japan Equity Strategy Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Japanese corporate sector**, focusing on the findings from the **June BOJ Tankan survey** regarding business sentiment and corporate earnings forecasts. Key Points and Arguments Impact of US Tariffs - The June BOJ Tankan indicates that **US tariffs have not significantly dampened corporate sentiment**, with a business conditions diffusion index (DI) for large manufacturers remaining steady at **13 points**, surpassing the Bloomberg consensus of **10 points** [1][4] - However, corporate earnings forecasts predict a **10% drag on net profit**, particularly affecting the **manufacturing sector**, especially **automobiles** and other processing industries [1][4] Corporate Earnings Forecasts - The FY2025 net profit growth forecast for large enterprises is revised to **-5.3%**, down from **-1.3%** in the March survey, aligning with the broader TSE Prime constituents' forecast of **-5.8%** [1][4] - **Manufacturers** lowered their profit growth forecast to **-9.8%**, while **non-manufacturers** raised theirs to **-0.8%** from **-2.0%** [1][4] Sales and Capital Expenditure (Capex) - Both manufacturers and non-manufacturers have increased their sales forecasts, with capex plans revised sharply upward to **+11.5% YoY** overall for large enterprises, driven by investments in **semiconductors**, **automation**, and **power transmission/distribution** [1][5] - Capex growth for manufacturers is projected at **+14.3%**, while non-manufacturers expect **+9.9%** [5] Foreign Exchange and Inflation Outlook - The corporate forex estimate for FY2025 is set at **¥145/$**, indicating a **4% YoY strengthening of the yen**, which is expected to negatively impact EPS by approximately **2 percentage points** [5][30] - The inflation outlook has slightly decreased, with companies expecting general prices to rise by **2.4%** in one year, down from **2.5%** previously [5][31] Sector-Specific Insights - Business conditions DI worsened in sectors more exposed to US tariffs, such as **automobiles** and **machinery**, while sectors like **materials** (paper & pulp, steel, oil & coal) and **construction** showed improvement [4][5] - The market consensus appears more cautious than company outlooks in sectors like **steel**, **services**, and **paper & pulp**, while being relatively optimistic for **electric & gas utilities**, **real estate**, and **communications** [4][5] Overall Corporate Sentiment - Despite the challenges posed by tariffs, corporate earnings remain resilient, particularly in domestic non-manufacturing sectors, which aligns with the investment strategy focusing on domestic demand sectors and potential upside in **semiconductors** and **machinery** [1][5] Additional Important Information - The report highlights the **limited impact of tariffs** on business conditions, with a flat DI for manufacturers and slight deterioration for non-manufacturers, which was in line with market expectations [4][5] - The report also notes that the **FY2025 TOPIX consensus EPS** has seen downward revisions in overseas demand sectors, particularly **automobiles**, which have been lowered by **18%** over the past three months, yet still shows a modest **+3.3% YoY profit growth forecast** as of end-June [4][5] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the Japanese corporate sector and its outlook amidst external pressures.

Let's talk about the jobs report because we got a a pretty positive report at least on the headline number. Unemployment rate goes down to 4.1%.1%. You have been um flagging the wages for bluecollar workers.You know, a lot of people didn't expect to see that at this time in the cycle with the Fed being restrictive with the tariffs in place. What do you think is is leading to the resilience in the job market and do you have any concern about what's under the surface there as far as where those jobs were crea ...

At IPO, I think Larry Ellison owned something like 23% of Oracle. Typically, that goes down over time. He now owns 41% of Oracle.What's he done. Every year, he's run that business superbly. It's got 43% operating margins and he's used that cash to buy back shares.He hasn't sold any. So, his ownership has just gone up over time. Two things happened this year.One is the stock really popped 40% and he got a lot of cloud credit. But the interesting thing is this is the year he actually abandoned the buyback str ...

硅谷模型大厂变化：对预训练和 Capex 的影响？ 20250702 摘要 Meta 积极挖角 OpenAI、谷歌和 Anthropic 等公司人才，尤其集中在 多模态处理、后训练和推理模型领域，旨在提升 LLAMA 模型竞争力， 加速下一代大模型研发。 Meta 通过收购 Skill AI 加强数据筛选能力，弥补参数量不足，同时加速 集群建设，学习 OpenAI 模式，综合提升数据、人力和算力，推动下一 代模型发展。 OpenAI 的 O1 模型核心团队成员流失，任宏宇、赵胜佳和余佳慧等关 键人物被挖走，对 OpenAI 造成一定冲击，促使其加快发展步伐。 AI 人才薪酬大幅上涨，顶尖人才年薪高达一亿美元，显示科技公司对 AI 人才的争夺白热化，扎克伯格通过高薪全面压制竞争对手。 2025 年下半年，科技公司将回归预训练阶段，Meta、谷歌和 OpenAI 采取不同策略：Meta 侧重数据，谷歌优化架构，OpenAI 坚持大集群战 略。 Q&A 近期硅谷的变化对全球大模型 AI 演绎节奏有何影响？ 近期硅谷的变化显著加快了全球大模型 AI 演绎的节奏。今年（2025 年）下半 年，美国将进入新一轮的大模型迭 ...

V i e w p o i n t | 25 Jun 2025 22:52:28 ET │ 18 pages +852-2501-2754 xiangrong.yu@citi.com Xinyu Ji AC +852-2501-2792 xinyu.ji@citi.com Yuanliu Hu AC +852-2501-2746 yuanliu.hu@citi.com See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations. China Economics 25H2 Outlook: Steady Growth with Divided Structure CITI'S TAKE We upgrade GDP forecast to 5.0%YoY for 2025E while expecting continued deflation. We still hold the view that the 20% fentanyl tariff could be sus ...

Joining me now, Goldman's co-head of public tech investing, Sun Cho. It's good to see you. Welcome back.You as well. What a day to have you. Um, no China, no problem.I mean, is that's is that what the market is saying here. Look, I think it's you have to take a little bit of a broader picture of what's been going on with the AI trade, right. And it singularly has to do with the perception around AI capex, right.Just a couple of months ago when all of these stocks were under lows, there was this perception t ...

特朗普并未显著推动美国油气企业加大资本开支或显著提高原油产量。一方面，油气上游投资的决策高 度依赖国际油价走势和资本回报预期，而非仅仅受到监管松绑或财政刺激的推动;另一方面，行业普遍 面临投资者"重回报、轻扩张"的资本纪律压力，尤其是在页岩行业，资本市场对高杠杆、高波动的勘探 开发投入已日益审慎。此外，尽管监管环境趋于宽松，但基础设施瓶颈、熟练劳动力短缺及长期市场需 求的不确定性仍制约了企业扩张的意愿。因此，特朗普政府的政策在提振油气行业信心方面虽有边际改 善，但未能根本扭转行业保守投资的趋势。 强α视角下的部分大化工投资机会 当前油制烯烃盈利仍处于磨底阶段，受制于当前油价水平相对处于中高位，油制烯烃在成本端存在一定 劣势，目前乙烷制乙烯毛利水平相较于油制乙烯、煤制乙烯有约2000-2500元/吨的优势。若国内近期一 系列货币和财政政策落地，或带动烯烃类化工品消费需求好转，油制烯烃盈利能力有望改善，乙烷制乙 烯在低成本原料前提下仍有望保持较强的行业α属性。成品油消费需求有望在政策刺激下相对维持稳 健，若政策落地，炼油板块同样具有修复机会，炼化企业业绩有望改善。 景气度视角下的部分大化工投资机遇 智通财经APP ...

Around the World in 80 Datapoints Equities May 2025 Global : A temporary fade in momentum? Indicator -30 in May 2025 vs -7 in Mar 2025 -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Nov-16 May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 May-19 Nov-19 May-20 Nov-20 May-21 Nov-21 May-22 Nov-22 May-23 Nov-23 May-24 Nov-24 May-25 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 Leading Indicator (RHS) 3m rolling Lead Indicator (RHS) FTSE World Industrial yoy change (LHS) 12m Mov. Avg. (Leading Indicator (RHS)) Source: FTSE, HSBC, LSEG D ...

electric utilities at Mizuho. Good morning. Good to see you.>> Hey good morning Frank. >> All right. So is a heat wave necessarily good for utilities.Does that increase profits. Does it increase revenue. What does it do.>> A little of everything. It's definitely really good for utilities because we're spending at record levels. Just to give you some numbers here five years ago I think the sector.So if I just use electric, gas and water utilities spending about $150 billion a year in CapEx. And in 2026, we'r ...

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy 11 June 2025 Japan Equity Strategy Capex expansion cycle continues amid uncertainty: Promising sectors and companies A capex expansion cycle continues for Japanese companies even as uncertainty over US tariff policy rises. In FY2024, capex in semiconductors, automation, power transmission and distribution, and inbound sectors advanced. Capex accounts for nearly 20% of Japan's GDP, and corporate capex expanded during periods of economic growth and a booming stock marke ...