Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of changing US tariffs on trade flows with China, focusing on shipping, shipbuilding, ports, international freight flights, and land transportation [2] - Container throughput at key ports in China showed an acceleration, with a year-on-year increase of 11% compared to 6% in the previous week [3] - The spot container freight rate between China and the US increased significantly, with a 58% rise on the West Coast and 46% on the East Coast week-on-week [4] - Early signs of port congestion are noted in Europe due to strikes, tariffs, and climate change, with an 8% increase in global average waiting time for container ships over 8k TEU [5][28] - Import volume estimates at the Port of Los Angeles indicated a year-on-year decline of 2% in week 25, an improvement from a 12% decline in week 24 [8][2] Summary by Sections Trade Flows - The report tracks trade flows amid changing US tariffs, gathering data from various sources to present the latest trends [2] - The number of international freight flights rose by 21% year-on-year last week, indicating increased shipping activity [31] Port Activity - Container throughput at China's key ports increased by 11% year-on-year, while showing a slight week-on-week decline of 1% [6][7] - The average waiting time at the Port of Singapore increased by 9% week-on-week [19] Shipping Rates - The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) rose by 31% week-on-week but showed a year-on-year decline of 32% [11] - Container ship newbuild prices remained flat, with a slight increase of 0.4% year-on-year [25] Freight and Transportation - Direct shipping volume from China to ASEAN decreased by 7% week-on-week, while shipping volume from China to the US increased by 7% [14] - China expressway truck traffic decreased by 4% year-on-year last week [26]

21 May 2025 | 4:01PM EDT What's Top of Mind in Macro Research: Growing US fiscal concerns, tracking trade flows, the positives of population aging Transcript US: fiscal concerns grow We estimate that the House Republican reconciliation package that extends expiring tax cuts, enacts new tax cuts, and reduces spending will increase the US deficit by around $275bn, or 0.8% of GDP, next year compared with current policy. This increase is slightly larger than we originally anticipated, mainly owing to more gener ...

18 May 2025 | 9:26PM HKT China Data Insights Nowcasting China's Trade Flows Using Shipping Data (Chen/Song/Lu) Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Hui Shan +852-2978-6634 | hui.shan@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Lisheng Wang +852-3966-4004 | lisheng.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Xinquan Chen +852-2978-2418 | xinquan.chen@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Yuting Yang +852-2978-7283 | yuting.y.yang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Chelsea Song +852 ...