Treasury yields rose from a three-month low ahead of a key inflation report that may shape market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates as soon as next month https://t.co/Y3Iq2o7vfp ...

Well, turning to the bond markets, Treasury issuing $58 billion in three-year notes today ahead of its record hundred billion dollar auction of four-week bills on Thursday. The government is pushing to increase liquidity after Congress raised the debt ceiling by $5 trillion back in July. For more, let's turn to Rick Santelli in Chicago.Rick, what are you seeing. Well, you know, Morgan, you touched on something important, and it was wasn't only the bills were expecting 100 billion four-week bills on Thursday ...

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Federal Reserve Policy & Presidential Influence - The President desires lower interest rates and expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) to align with his objectives, despite potential conflicts with sound monetary policy [1][2] - The President might replace the Fed chair with a more dovish nominee to achieve his desired policy outcomes [2] - A Fed that prioritizes the President's agenda over its independence could negatively impact the dollar's value due to concerns about biased policy and currency debasement [3] Potential Treasury Actions - The President may instruct the Treasury to intervene in the bond market to suppress long-term yields [4] - The Treasury could reduce long-term bond issuance by 25%, which would have a similar impact to the Fed's largest monthly quantitative easing (QE) program [5] - Decreasing bond supply could keep yields low, but might also lead to inflation and accelerated economic growth [7] Market Implications - Actions to control bond yields could lead to rallies in stocks, gold, and Bitcoin, potentially weakening the dollar [6] - Starving the market for duration through reduced bond supply could maintain low yields if demand for Treasury bonds remains strong [7]

Group 1: Economic Environment - The May 2025 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report indicates core PCE inflation rose approximately 0.22% month over month and 2.68% year over year, reinforcing expectations for the Fed's hawkish stance [1][11] - Treasury yields have increased, with the benchmark 10-year yield climbing from roughly 3.35% to about 3.45%, reflecting market reactions to persistent inflation data [2][11] Group 2: Financial Sector Performance - Financial institutions, including banks and insurance companies, are expected to see increased profitability due to higher lending rates and improved net interest margins in a high-rate environment [4][5] - The S&P 500 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF) has risen 9.1% year to date as of June 30, indicating strong performance in the financial sector [5] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Stocks such as Nelnet, Inc. (NNI), Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY), and United Fire Group, Inc. (UFCS) are highlighted as viable investment options due to their strong earnings momentum and favorable growth rates [3][11] - Nelnet (NNI) has an expected earnings growth rate of 59% for the current year, with a Zacks Rank 1 and a VGM Score of B [8] - Pagaya Technologies (PGY) shows an expected earnings growth rate of 195.2% for the current year, also holding a Zacks Rank 1 and a VGM Score of B [9] - United Fire Group (UFCS) has an expected earnings growth rate of 8% for the next year, with a Zacks Rank 2 and a VGM Score of B [10]

>> I'M ROMAINE BOSTICK. BLOOMBERG REAL YIELD STARTS NOW. COMING UP, THE FED KEEPS RATES STEADY AS CHAIR POWELL FLAGS INFLATION COMING DOWN THE PIPE.BUT EARLIER TODAY FED GOVERNOR WALZ OR HAD SOMETHING TO SAY. A DOVISH TILL POTENTIALLY CUTTING RATES AS SOON AS NEXT MONTH IN HIS VIEW. AS MARKETS GET A REPRIEVE FROM GLOBAL TENSIONS, PRESIDENT TRUMP BUYING TIME IN THE MIDDLE EAST.WE BEGIN WITH THE BIG ISSUE AND IT IS WAIT AND SEE AT THE FED. >> THE FED IS IN THIS REALLY POLICY PURGATORY. >> I THINK THEY ARE DOI ...

It's not at all uncommon for different duration treasury yields to rise and fall at different speeds, creating varied slopes of the yield curve to reflect market conditions. Much more rare is when different duration yields move in entirely opposite directions. Well, in recent weeks, 30-year Treasury yields have risen while shorter term yields have fallen.Pattern last seen in 2001. This shift is driven by a couple interesting factors. First, the Federal Reserve has cut short-term interest rates by 100 basis ...

It's not at all uncommon for different duration treasury yields to rise and fall at different speeds, creating varied slopes of the yield curve to reflect market conditions. Much more rare is when different duration yields move in entirely opposite directions. Well, in recent weeks, 30-year Treasury yields have risen while shorter term yields have fallen.Pattern last seen in 2001. This shift is driven by a couple interesting factors. First, the Federal Reserve has cut short-term interest rates by 100 basis ...