The Trump administration may be forced to temper the Iran conflict as borrowing costs surge, with the 10-year Treasury yield up 45 basis points since late February. The Bond Market Pressure Point Gold advocate Peter Schiff on Monday questioned why Trump dramatically escalated the war Saturday only to reverse course before markets opened, asking whether it was “market manipulation” or an indication the president has no idea what he’s doing. The answer may lie in Treasury markets. Don't Miss: According ...

Treasury Yields Snapshot: March 20, 2026 The yield on the 10-year note finished March 20, 2026 at 4.39% while the 2-year note ended at 3.88%. This is the highest level for each since July 2025. The chart below overlays the daily performance of several Treasury bonds, starting from the pre-recession equity market peaks, along with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007. This next table shows the highs and lows of yields and the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007. A Long-Term Look at the 10-Year Treasury Yi ...

Oil prices in Europe are still over $100 a barrel. ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices increased and Treasury yields surged as markets reacted to recent developments in the Middle East [1] Group 1: Oil Market - Oil prices rose again, indicating a strong market response to geopolitical events [1] - The increase in oil prices reflects heightened concerns over supply disruptions in the region [1] Group 2: Treasury Yields - Treasury yields jumped, suggesting a shift in investor sentiment towards risk and inflation expectations [1] - The rise in yields may impact borrowing costs and overall economic outlook [1]

Core Viewpoint - Yields on the 2-year note indicate that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates in the near future [1] Group 1 - The current yield on the 2-year note reflects market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1] - Investors are interpreting the yields as a signal of prolonged interest rate stability or potential increases rather than cuts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The surge in oil prices beyond $113 a barrel, driven by intensified attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure, has led to a sell-off in stocks and an increase in short-term Treasury yields [1] Group 1 - Oil prices have exceeded $113 per barrel due to escalating attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East [1] - The rise in oil prices has resulted in a negative impact on stock markets, leading to a sell-off [1] - Short-term Treasury yields have increased in response to the rising oil prices and market volatility [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of Treasury yields, the implications of an inverted yield curve, and the influence of the Federal Funds Rate on mortgage rates, highlighting potential recession indicators and recent trends in fixed-rate mortgages. Treasury Yields Overview - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.28% as of March 13, 2026, while the 2-year note was at 3.73% and the 30-year yield was at 4.90% [1] - A long-term view of the 10-year yield shows historical trends dating back to 1965, prior to the 1973 oil embargo [1] Inverted Yield Curve - An inverted yield curve occurs when longer-term Treasury yields are lower than shorter-term yields, with the 10-2 spread being a reliable recession indicator [1] - The 10-2 spread has been negative from July 5, 2022, to August 26, 2024, with the last negative spread recorded on September 5, 2024 [1] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average of 18.5 weeks [1] Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate influences borrowing costs for banks, which typically leads to higher mortgage rates when the FFR increases [1] - Despite the Fed's rate-cutting cycle beginning in September 2024, mortgage rates have recently declined, with the 30-year fixed rate at 6.11% according to Freddie Mac [1] - The article notes that Fed policy has significantly impacted market behavior, particularly in relation to Treasury yields and mortgage rates [1] ETFs Related to Treasuries - Mentioned ETFs associated with Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Dollar is currently supported by safe-haven demand, higher Treasury yields, and delayed Fed rate cuts, driven by soaring oil prices and tensions in the Middle East [1][2] - Rising oil prices are raising concerns about higher inflation and slower economic growth globally, creating a "toxic mix" that increases demand for the dollar as investors seek stability [3] - Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for global oil supply, could lead to reduced energy supplies and higher prices, further driving inflation and making the dollar more attractive [4] Group 2 - The timeline for the first Fed rate cut has been pushed to September 2026, with expectations for cuts in March, June, and July diminishing [5] - Short-covering by traders, who initially had a bearish outlook for the dollar, is contributing to its strength as they adjust their positions in light of delayed rate cuts [6]

Core Viewpoint - Major U.S. indexes are experiencing declines in premarket trading due to rising oil prices impacting global stock markets [1] Group 1 - The increase in oil prices is contributing to a negative sentiment in global stocks [1]

Core Viewpoint - February inflation data met investor expectations, leading to an increase in Treasury yields [1] Group 1: Treasury Yields - The 2-year Treasury yield is currently at 3.62% [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield stands at 4.18% [1] Group 2: Inflation Insights - Analysts are interpreting monthly price gains to assess their effect on the personal-consumption expenditures inflation index, suggesting that the Fed's core preferred inflation measure could remain at 3% or higher in February [1] Group 3: Market Context - The ongoing conflict in Iran continues to capture market attention, influencing investor sentiment [1] - The ICE U.S. Dollar index has increased by 0.3% [1]