U.S. Treasury yields edged up as one threat to the market receded: spillover from year-end funding pressure in the repo market. ...

Core Insights - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note finished at 4.18% on December 31, 2025, while the 2-year note ended at 3.47% and the 30-year note at 4.84% [1] - The inverted yield curve, where longer-term Treasury yields are lower than shorter-term yields, is a reliable leading indicator for recessions, with the 10-2 spread turning negative before recessions [2][3] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average lead time of 18.5 weeks [4][6] Treasury Yield Analysis - The 10-3 month spread also indicates lead times to recessions ranging from 34 to 69 weeks, with similar patterns observed as in the 10-2 spread [5] - The most recent negative spread for the 10-2 occurred from July 5, 2022, to August 26, 2024, while the 10-3 month spread was negative from October 25, 2022, to December 12, 2024 [3][5] Mortgage Rate Trends - The Federal Funds Rate (FFR) influences borrowing costs, and typically, an increase in the FFR leads to higher mortgage rates; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite the Fed's rate-cutting cycle starting in September 2024 [7] - The latest Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.15%, the lowest since October 2024 [7] Market Behavior and Federal Reserve Influence - Federal Reserve policy has significantly influenced market behavior, particularly in relation to Treasury yields and mortgage rates [8]

Core Viewpoint - Treasury yields have decreased as the year-end approaches, indicating a period of quiet trading in the bond market [1] Group 1 - The decline in Treasury yields suggests a shift in investor sentiment as the market prepares for year-end [1] - The trading environment has been characterized by low activity, reflecting a cautious approach among investors [1]

Treasury yields were steady in thin trade on a holiday-shortened week, reversing much of Tuesday's rise after data showed the U.S. economy grew at a 4.3% annual pace in the third quarter.This lifted two-year Treasury yields to a 13-day high of 3.559% as investors trimmed expectations for another interest-rate cut in January.However, the data are backward-looking and traders will continue to watch for any signs of a weak jobs market and slowing inflation. ...

Treasury yields were rising, reversing last week's falls. They were tracking a rise in Japanese government bond yields after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates on Friday, with a further increase looking likely.Traders were awaiting delayed first-estimate U.S. third-quarter GDP data at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time Tuesday. Any weakness could add to prospects of U.S. interest-rate cuts and send Treasury yields lower, especially after recent below-forecast inflation figures.The Conference Board's December consu ...

This next table shows the highs and lows of yields and the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007. A Long-Term Look at the 10-Year Treasury Yield Here is a long-term view of the 10-year yield starting in 1965, well before the 1973 oil embargo that triggered the era of 'stagflation' (economic stagnation coupled with inflation) Inverted Yield Curve An inverted yield curve is when longer-term Treasury yields are lower than their shorter term counterparts. The next chart displays the latest 10-2 spread. Typically, ...

Treasury yields rose to a three-month high on Wednesday morning despite Wall Street's near certainty that the Federal Reserve was just hours away from cutting interest rates. https://t.co/19Y3SgYfpi ...

Core Viewpoint - U.S. Treasury yields have decreased slightly, indicating that investors are preparing for the Federal Reserve's policy decision, with a significant likelihood of a rate cut. Group 1: Market Expectations - A 25-basis-point rate cut is anticipated with a 90% probability, highlighting strong market expectations ahead of the Fed's announcement [1] - Investors are particularly focused on the Fed's projections and comments from Chair Jerome Powell, which may influence future market movements [1] Group 2: Fed's Stance - The Federal Reserve is expected to adopt a cautious tone while incorporating some hawkish elements to maintain policy flexibility, as noted by MFS Investment Management [2]

As Treasury yields fall, dividend stocks with higher payouts and room to maintain them are becoming an appealing bond alternative. ...

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