Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields: January 2026ETF Trends is now VettaFi. Read More --Our [monthly market valuation updates] have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. This analysis focuses on the [P/E10 ratio], a key indicator of market valuation, and its correlation with inflation and the 10-year Treasury yield.## Market Valuation (P/E10) and InflationThe relationship between market valuation, ...

The yield on the 10-year note finished January 30, 2026 at 4.26%. Meanwhile, the 2-year note ended at 3.52% and the 30-year note ended at 4.87%. The chart below overlays the daily performance of several Treasury bonds, starting from the pre-recession equity market peaks, along with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007. This next table shows the highs and lows of yields and the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007. The 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage The Federal Funds Rate influences the cost of borrowing for ...

Core Viewpoint - Yields on Treasurys decreased as investors turned to safe-haven assets due to the increasing risk of another U.S. government shutdown ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision [1] Group 1 - The decline in Treasury yields indicates a shift in investor sentiment towards safer investments [1] - The potential government shutdown is contributing to market uncertainty, prompting a flight to quality among investors [1] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming decision is a critical factor influencing market dynamics and investor behavior [1]

Core Insights - The US dollar ended the previous week softer, influenced by inflation signals, rising Treasury yields, and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve and the White House [1] - Mixed inflation data, with Core CPI undershooting expectations and PPI meeting them, did not significantly alter the Federal Reserve's near-term policy stance [2] - The breakout in the 10-year yield above 4.2% suggests a potential increase in long-term US yields, yet the dollar struggled to gain traction due to resilient equity sentiment and reduced geopolitical fears [3] Currency Performance - The New Zealand dollar led the G10 currencies, supported by strong domestic manufacturing data, while the Canadian dollar benefited from optimism regarding renewed trade engagement with China [4] - European currencies, particularly the Euro, Swiss Franc, and Sterling, performed poorly due to political issues and declining growth momentum [4] - The Yen traded unevenly, influenced by speculation over US-Japan FX intervention and expectations of further Bank of Japan tightening, but overall demand for safe havens remained low [5] Currency Pairs Analysis - GBP/AUD has weakened significantly, with expectations for the trend to continue lower, potentially testing the key level of 1.98820 [6][8] - EUR/NZD has formed a head-and-shoulders pattern, with a baseline around 2.007; a break below this level could lead to a nearly 3% decline, testing the previous key level at 1.96225 [9][10] Market Outlook - Upcoming events, including the Davos summit and US-EU tensions over Greenland, are expected to create volatility in the Euro and Swiss Franc [11] - The acceleration of the equity earnings season, with results from major companies like Netflix and Intel, will shape risk sentiment and influence Dollar-sensitive carry trades [12] - The 10-year yield's movement above 4.2% will be closely monitored, as its trajectory could significantly impact the US dollar's performance against improving global risk appetite [13]

Core Insights - The JPMorgan Active Bond ETF (JBND) has attracted $5.4 billion since its launch in October 2023, primarily due to its ability to outperform in volatile markets [2][8] - The fund faces challenges as corporate bond spreads have compressed to their tightest levels in two decades, which may impact future performance [3][8] Fund Performance and Strategy - JBND has a portfolio turnover rate of 89%, indicating aggressive repositioning by managers in response to compressed spreads [4][8] - The fund is expected to generate around 5% returns from investment-grade bond coupons this year, emphasizing the importance of active sector selection [4] Yield and Income Generation - JBND offers a yield of 4.4% generated from bond coupons, distinguishing itself from other income ETFs that rely on options strategies [6][8] - The fund allocates approximately 30% to securitized products, such as agency mortgage-backed securities and asset-backed securities, to enhance yield while maintaining investment-grade quality [7][8] Market Risks - Rising Treasury yields pose a significant risk for JBND holders, with projections indicating that 10-year yields could reach 4.35% [5] - The fund's six-year duration means it is sensitive to interest rate movements, which will be crucial for determining the effectiveness of its active management strategy [5]

Group 1 - The relationship between market valuation (P/E10) and inflation shows significant patterns across three distinct periods: January 1881 to December 2007, January 2008 to February 2020, and March 2020 to the present [1] - The current P/E10 stands at 39.8, with a year-over-year inflation rate of 2.22%, indicating that the market is within the "sweet spot" of 1.4% to 3.0% inflation, historically associated with higher valuations [2] - The historical average P/E10 is 17.7, providing a benchmark for assessing current valuations, which are significantly higher than this average [3] Group 2 - The extreme overvaluation during the tech bubble (June 1997 to January 2002) is characterized by a P/E10 of 25 or higher, highlighting the risks associated with current valuations [3] - The shaded red area in the graph indicates the inflation "sweet spot" (approximately 1.4% to 3.0%), a range historically linked to elevated market valuations [3]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. Treasury yields increased as the market faced reduced pressure from year-end funding issues in the repo market [1] Group 1 - U.S. Treasury yields experienced an uptick, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1] - The year-end funding pressure in the repo market, which had been a concern, has started to recede, contributing to the rise in yields [1]

Core Insights - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note finished at 4.18% on December 31, 2025, while the 2-year note ended at 3.47% and the 30-year note at 4.84% [1] - The inverted yield curve, where longer-term Treasury yields are lower than shorter-term yields, is a reliable leading indicator for recessions, with the 10-2 spread turning negative before recessions [2][3] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average lead time of 18.5 weeks [4][6] Treasury Yield Analysis - The 10-3 month spread also indicates lead times to recessions ranging from 34 to 69 weeks, with similar patterns observed as in the 10-2 spread [5] - The most recent negative spread for the 10-2 occurred from July 5, 2022, to August 26, 2024, while the 10-3 month spread was negative from October 25, 2022, to December 12, 2024 [3][5] Mortgage Rate Trends - The Federal Funds Rate (FFR) influences borrowing costs, and typically, an increase in the FFR leads to higher mortgage rates; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite the Fed's rate-cutting cycle starting in September 2024 [7] - The latest Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.15%, the lowest since October 2024 [7] Market Behavior and Federal Reserve Influence - Federal Reserve policy has significantly influenced market behavior, particularly in relation to Treasury yields and mortgage rates [8]

Core Viewpoint - Treasury yields have decreased as the year-end approaches, indicating a period of quiet trading in the bond market [1] Group 1 - The decline in Treasury yields suggests a shift in investor sentiment as the market prepares for year-end [1] - The trading environment has been characterized by low activity, reflecting a cautious approach among investors [1]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. Treasury yields remained stable during a holiday-shortened week, reversing much of the previous rise after the U.S. economy reported a 4.3% annual growth rate in Q3 [1] Group 1: Economic Data Impact - The reported 4.3% annual growth in the U.S. economy for the third quarter contributed to a rise in two-year Treasury yields, reaching a 13-day high of 3.559% [1] - Investors adjusted their expectations regarding a potential interest-rate cut in January following the economic data release [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - The economic data is considered backward-looking, prompting traders to remain vigilant for indicators of a weakening job market and slowing inflation [1]