Yes, S&P global PMIs manufacturing service composite. These are jam preliminaries. Couple weeks they'll probably get uh fine-tuned a little bit, but our headline number for manufacturing 51.9% very close to expectations follows a final read on last month at 518.Uh so that would be only the highest read since November of last year. If you look at the service side, 52.5% exactly equal to the D's final at 52.5%. Both of those equally are the weakest since April of 25.And finally, the composite 52.8% uh a littl ...

Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is projected to have added 73,000 jobs in December, an increase from 64,000 in November, with the unemployment rate expected to decrease to 4.5% from 4.6% [3] Treasury Market Response - The Treasury market is currently more focused on domestic economic data rather than international events, such as the U.S. intervention in Venezuela, which is not significantly impacting inflation expectations [1][4] - Portfolio managers indicate that the upcoming jobs report is more critical for the Treasury market than developments in Venezuela, as the latter does not currently influence inflation trends [4] Labor Market Data - Investors are awaiting clear labor market data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, with the jobs report expected to boost investor confidence [2] - The ADP's private-sector employment report is set to be released prior to the government's data, although it is not typically viewed as a reliable indicator [3] Global Oil Market - The global oil balance remains stable, and any significant changes in Venezuelan oil supply are expected to take time, which diminishes immediate concerns for the bond market [5] - Current tensions in Venezuela, including the U.S. intervention and the capture of Nicolás Maduro, are not expected to have a lasting impact on inflation or the bond market unless they lead to sustained changes in oil prices [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Treasury market is experiencing a lack of movement due to U.S. intervention in Venezuela, with traders focusing on an upcoming busy calendar week, particularly the jobs report for December [1] Group 1 - The Treasury market is described as moving in a "listless fashion" on Tuesday [1] - Traders are more focused on the busy calendar week ahead rather than the current market conditions [1] - The jobs report for December, scheduled for Friday, is highlighted as a key event for traders [1]

Market Trends & Economic Data - Investors are preparing for more information on the US economy, with stocks, bonds, and the dollar wavering [3] - The week will bring economic data releases, including inflation and jobs reports, influencing future Fed policy [4] - The US Treasury market is debating the extent of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [12] - Delayed announcements of monthly employment and inflation figures due to the US government shutdown are creating a void [13] - There's a debate on whether the economy is transitioning from deleveraging to re-leveraging [40] M&A and Corporate Strategy - The pursuit of Warner Brothers Discovery by Netflix is ongoing, with concerns about job losses and theatrical releases [5] - Netflix co-CEOs are trying to reassure employees about the company's bid for Warner Brothers Discovery, reiterating no business overlap and studio closures [59] - Global M&A activity has been strong, with volumes at $45 trillion, setting up for 2026 to potentially exceed the record year in 2021 [78] - A potential Netflix acquisition of Warner Brothers could be a $827 billion deal [60] - iRobot filed for bankruptcy, with its common stock to be wiped out under the proposed Chapter 11 plan, listing between $100 million and $500 million in assets and liabilities [118][120] Energy & Utilities - National Grid is spending billions of dollars to prepare New York's electric grid for a generational shift, including data centers [93] - National Grid serves over 4 million customers in New York, delivering natural gas and electricity [97] - Cumulative power needs from companies wanting to connect to the New York grid over the next five years are estimated at about 10 gigawatts, tripling in size in one year [99][100] - West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) is down 13%, at $5674 a barrel [92] Cryptocurrency - MicroStrategy acquired almost $1 billion in Bitcoin for a second straight week, despite the cryptocurrency falling [124] - Bitcoin is down 23%, at $86,432 [10][92] - Bitcoin is down about 30% from an all-time high of just over $126,000 in early October [126] Financial Markets Performance - The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq are all in the red [8][55][56][91][115] - The Bloomberg Mag Seven index is holding onto a gain of 4/10 of 1% [8] - The S&P 500 index is down 1/10 of 1%, lower by six at 620 [9] - The NASDAQ composite index is down 3/10 of 1%, while the Dow Industrials are down 2/10 of 1% [9] - The ten-year Treasury yield is currently at 417%, with the two-year at 350% [9] - Gold is up 4/10 of 1%, at $4314 the ounce [10] - The Russell 2000 index is declining, down 6/10 of 1% [55] - Gold is up $13 the ounce, at $4312, up 3/10 of 1% [56]

For the Treasury market, this historically has been a bad week. If it happens again this year, Morgan Stanley strategists say investors should buy the dip “with both hands.” https://t.co/xtdg6HEY2h ...

Core Viewpoint - U.S. government bond yields increased in response to the unexpected resignation of French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, who served for less than a month [1] Group 1 - The resignation of French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has caused a ripple effect, influencing bond yields in the U.S. to rise [1]

Tokenization Adoption - Sei Network is attracting major players in tokenization [1] - Ondo Finance and Securitize, representing over 50% of the tokenized Treasury market, are choosing Sei [1] Institutional Interest - Institutions are converging on Sei as a settlement layer for global-scale markets [1] Performance Claim - Real World Assets (RWAs) move faster on Sei [1]

Group 1 - The Treasury market is currently hovering below a key level of 4.25%, but remains above the significant 4% level, indicating market stability despite inflation concerns [1][2] - Year-over-year core PCE inflation is reported at 2.9%, which is above the pre-COVID levels and indicates persistent inflationary pressures, well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [2][3] - The Federal Reserve may reconsider aggressive easing strategies due to the persistent inflation and stable labor market, as evidenced by the tame claims data of 218,000 [3] Group 2 - The Treasury yields have increased, with a rise of seven basis points on the week for the 10-year and five basis points for the two-year, reflecting market reactions to recent economic data [4] - The dollar index has appreciated by approximately 1.6% since the Federal Reserve's easing on the 17th, indicating a strengthening dollar amidst the current economic environment [4]

Market Trends & Inflation - The Treasury market's tenure is hovering below a key level of 425 basis points (425%) [1] - Inflation remains sticky, with year-over-year core PCE inflation at 290 basis points (290%) [1][2] - Core PCE inflation is holding at slightly below 300 basis points (300%), well above pre-COVID levels, while the target is 200 basis points (200%) [2] Monetary Policy & Labor Market - The Fed should pause any aggressive easing strategy unless the labor market deteriorates [3] - Initial claims were at 218000, indicating a tame labor market [3] Treasury Market & Dollar Index - Treasury yields are up seven basis points (700%) on the week in a two-year and about five basis points (500%) in a 10-year [4] - Since the Fed's easing on the 17th, the dollar index is up about 160 basis points (160%) [4] Economic Sentiment - University of Michigan sentiment shows some deterioration [3]

Monetary Policy & Inflation Outlook - The independence of the Federal Reserve is critical for both the current and future chairs [1] - The market is pricing in a full point (100 basis points) of rate cuts by the Fed this year [1] - Inflation is primarily a fiscal and monetary phenomenon, not driven by tariffs [3] - The industry anticipates soft growth numbers will lead the Fed to ease policy, potentially finding themselves behind the curve in September [6][10] Fiscal Policy & Economic Conditions - Government spending growth has slowed significantly, from a 45% increase in the first six months of fiscal year 2021 to a 5% increase currently [4] - Money supply growth has also slowed, from 27% to 4%, compared to a 50-year average of 6-7% [5] - The industry does not expect a significant inflation surge due to the changes in fiscal and monetary policy [6] Treasury Market & Investment Strategy - The industry suggests underweighting the back end of the Treasury market, maintaining a 70% stocks, 30% bonds allocation [7] - There is pressure on the back end of the curve due to factors such as the JGB market, slowing of QE in Japan, and spending out of Germany [8] - The two-year to five-year part of the Treasury curve may represent a good investment opportunity if weak economic data emerges [9]