Core Viewpoint - U.S. Treasury yields experienced a slight decline as investors adjusted their positions ahead of a shortened trading day due to the holidays [1] Group 1: Treasury Yields - The 10-year Treasury yield, a key indicator for U.S. government borrowing, decreased by 1 basis point to 4.159% [1] - Yields on the 2-year Treasury note remained stable at 3.528% [1] - The 30-year bond yield showed minimal change, holding steady at 4.824% [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The movement of yields and prices is inversely related, with one basis point equating to 0.01% or 1/100th of 1% [1]

Pushing tech down: a 10-year Treasury yield inching up to 4.19% from an intraday low of below 4.16%. It's now just above its Friday close. Most yields across the Treasury curve are up on the day, as the U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index met estimates and ticked slightly higher in December from November, speaking to stronger housing demand. The resulting higher long-dated yields pressures tech stocks the most because they're valued on the basis that a bulk of their cash flows will arrive many years in the futur ...

Core Viewpoint - The 10-year Treasury yield is decreasing, which is expected to influence mortgage rates following the Federal Reserve's rate cut [1] Group 1 - The decline in the 10-year Treasury yield indicates a potential reduction in borrowing costs for consumers and businesses [1] - The relationship between the Treasury yield and mortgage rates suggests that lower yields may lead to more favorable mortgage conditions [1]

Fed Policy Stance - The market interprets the Fed's recent actions as a dovish meeting rather than a hawkish cut, despite the rate cut [1][2][7][10] - The Fed is perceived to be more focused on employment risks, specifically the potential rise in unemployment, than on inflationary pressures [6] - The Fed seems to downplay inflationary risks, suggesting good progress on inflation, if not for tariffs [3][4][5] Quantitative Easing (QE) and Tightening (QT) - The Fed has unexpectedly ramped up QE by $40 billion, after a period of QT, raising hopes for further QE if needed [7] Interest Rate Dynamics - Despite the Fed dropping rates by 175 basis points since September, the 2-year Treasury rate remains unchanged [6] - The Fed funds rate is now in line with the 2-year Treasury yield [5][6] - Long-term interest rates, such as the 30-year Treasury, have risen by approximately 75 basis points since the Fed started cutting rates [8][9] - The 2s30s Treasury curve has steepened to around 123-124 basis points, approaching the year's high of 130 basis points [10] Economic Assessment - The Fed estimates that monthly jobs gains are overstated by approximately 60,000, suggesting a potentially weaker labor market than reported [2] - The market believes that cutting interest rates is not helpful for long-term interest rates [9] - Cutting rates by 175 basis points has not helped the housing market [8]

Rick Santelli with the Bond Report. Rick, it appears that uh John Williams may have saved Christmas. >> Well, I'm not sure about that.It certainly seems to me like there's a lot of other moving parts here, but it definitely moved the probabilities on the ease and the probabilities have gone from basically 30% up into the close to 70 and it's backed off but right under 70%. But I think the real story is h how the interest rate complex is shadow boxing uh the equity side and mostly when it goes higher. Now if ...

Treasury Yields & Market Trends - Two-year Treasury yield closed at the lowest since September 2022 [1] - Ten-year Treasury yield closed at the lowest since October 2024 (approximately one year prior) [2][3] - Trading ranges for both two-year and ten-year treasuries have been narrow recently [2][3] - Market participants are showing apprehension about trading below 4% due to lack of follow-through [3] Funding Market Indicators - Secured Overnight Funding Rate (SOFR) decreased from 430 basis points to 418 basis points [4] - Yellow flashing for funding markets is coming down a bit [4] Equity Market Reaction - Equity market seemed to look past the funding market dynamics [4]

Market Impact - Deutsche Bank strategists predict that the potential removal of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell by Donald Trump could increase the 30-year Treasury yield by over 0.5 percentage point [1]

Core Insights - The 10-year Treasury note serves as a crucial fundraising tool for the U.S. government and is viewed as a safe investment, reflecting overall economic sentiment [1][2][3] Group 1: Treasury Note Overview - The 10-year Treasury note is issued by the U.S. Treasury to individuals, financial institutions, and foreign governments, providing fixed interest payments every six months until maturity [2][3] - Treasury notes are considered among the safest investments due to being backed by the U.S. government [3] Group 2: Impact on Mortgage Rates - The 10-year Treasury yield is a reference point for national long-term interest rates, particularly mortgage rates, which typically move in tandem with Treasury yields [4] - Historically, the spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and mortgage rates has been between one to two percentage points, but it has recently widened to over two percentage points [4][5] Group 3: Treasury Yields and Economic Indicators - Treasury yields are influenced by various market factors, including overall economic conditions, inflation, and interest rate moves by the Federal Reserve [8] - The relationship between Treasury yields and mortgage rates can be volatile, with recent trends showing that yields rose following the Federal Reserve's rate cuts [6][9] Group 4: Investment Characteristics - Treasury yields represent the return on investment, with fixed-rate interest paid every six months, and the principal returned at maturity [9][10] - The relationship between bond prices and yields is inverse; as prices rise, yields fall, indicating investor sentiment regarding inflation and economic growth [11][12] Group 5: Treasury Instruments - Treasury instruments include bills, notes, and bonds, differentiated by their maturities, with notes typically issued in two to 10-year maturities [15] - The 10-year Treasury note is considered a low-return fixed-income investment, appealing to risk-averse investors [16]