Core Viewpoint - The U.S. dollar is under pressure, leading to gains in the euro and pound, as the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell were perceived as less hawkish than expected, reinforcing dollar selling momentum [1][6]. Group 1: Currency Movements - The euro was steady at $1.1741 after a 0.37% rise, while the pound was firmer at $1.33955, both poised for their third consecutive week of gains [1]. - The dollar index, measuring the U.S. currency against six major rivals, was at 98.34, set for a weekly drop of 0.7% and down over 9% this year, on track for its steepest annual drop since 2017 [6]. - The Japanese yen is expected to gain slightly, trading at 155.61 per dollar, while the Australian dollar remained steady at $0.6667 and the New Zealand dollar was 0.14% firmer at $0.5815 [7][9]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve cut rates as expected, but the comments from Powell were seen as less hawkish, which may help avoid negative surprises for investors [2][6]. - There is uncertainty regarding the U.S. monetary policy path next year, with traders pricing in two rate cuts in 2026, while policymakers anticipate only one cut next year and one in 2027 [6]. - Economic data lagging from the recent federal government shutdown will influence future monetary policy decisions, with the upcoming midterm elections likely focusing on economic performance [6]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The Swiss National Bank maintained its policy rate at 0% and noted that a recent agreement to reduce U.S. tariffs on Swiss goods has improved the economic outlook, despite inflation being below expectations [8][9]. - Concerns regarding the U.S. labor market are expected to drive the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to consider further interest rate cuts next year [6].

Core Insights - Digital asset investment products experienced significant outflows of $812 million last week, driven by cooling investor sentiment amid changing expectations for U.S. monetary policy [1] - Year-to-date inflows remain strong at $39.6 billion, indicating resilient overall demand for digital assets despite recent pullbacks [2] Regional Analysis - The U.S. market faced the majority of outflows, totaling $1 billion, while other regions like Switzerland, Canada, and Germany showed positive inflows, with Switzerland leading at $126.8 million [3][4] - This regional divergence highlights that U.S. macroeconomic uncertainty is impacting institutional flows, but global demand for digital assets remains robust [4] Asset Performance - Bitcoin suffered the most, with outflows of $719 million, while Ethereum experienced $409 million in outflows, bringing its year-to-date inflows to a near halt [5][6] - The data indicates a softening of near-term investor sentiment for both Bitcoin and Ethereum as markets adjust expectations around monetary easing [6] Emerging Trends - Solana and XRP emerged as exceptions to the outflow trend, attracting inflows of $291 million and $93.1 million respectively, driven by anticipation of upcoming U.S. ETF launches [7] - Solana's inflows reflect growing confidence in its blockchain capabilities, while XRP's demand signals renewed institutional interest ahead of potential regulatory clarity in the U.S. [8]

Group 1 - The U.S. tech sector may face challenges due to President Trump's announcement of a $100,000 fee for new H-1B worker visas, which could impact companies that rely on overseas talent [1][4] - Asian equities showed mixed performance, with Japan's Nikkei rising over 1% and Taiwan reaching a record high, while Indian shares declined following the H-1B visa fee announcement [2] - India's information technology sector, valued at $283 billion, will need to revise its strategy of rotating skilled talent into U.S. projects due to the new visa fee [4] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar experienced a slight decline, with markets focused on the potential for additional monetary easing, pricing in 44 basis points of cuts this year [2] - The upcoming release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is anticipated to provide insights into future monetary policy [2]

Asian stocks turned in a mixed performance on Monday as investors wondered how U.S. President Donald Trump's crackdown on immigration will reshape the world's largest in the short and long term.Traders also pondered the U.S. monetary policy path after the U.S. Federal Reserve delivered its widely expected 25-bps rate cut last week and projected it would do so twice more this year amid a cooling labor market. China's Shanghai Composite index edged up by 0.22 percent to 3,828.58 as a group of senior U.S. Hou ...