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Group 1 - 55% of voters disapprove of how immigration enforcement agencies are enforcing laws in U.S. cities, with 40% strongly disapproving [1] - 80% of voters want ICE and CBP to identify themselves during enforcement, and 86% support body camera requirements for agents [1] - 67% of voters want local officials to cooperate with federal authorities to deport criminal illegal immigrants [1] Group 2 - 63% of voters attribute the economy to Trump over Biden, marking an 11-point increase [1] - 55% of voters say Trump policies have been consistent with campaign promises, and 54% believe Trump has accomplished a lot in his first year; 15 of 22 key Trump policies continue to receive majority support [1] Group 3 - Democrats hold an 8-point lead in the 2026 midterm generic ballot among registered voters, and a 4-point lead among likely voters [1] - 64% of voters want a Democratic transition in Venezuela to be a key priority for the administration [1] - 59% of voters say the U.S. should support Iran regime change [1] - 69% of voters say maintaining NATO is more important than acquiring Greenland [1]

Group 1 - The core argument of the research is that US tariffs are primarily impacting domestic consumers and importers, absorbing 96% of the costs, while foreign exporters only bear 4% [1][3] - Nearly $200 billion in tariff revenue has been generated, predominantly affecting the US economy [2] - Tariffs are functioning similarly to a domestic consumption tax, with US importers paying tariffs at the border and either absorbing or passing on the costs, leading to lower trade volumes rather than cheaper imports [3][4] Group 2 - Economists describe the impact of tariffs as a slow-moving consumption tax, where costs gradually seep into supply chains over time rather than causing immediate price jumps [4] - Although US inflation remained moderate through 2025, studies indicate that only about 20% of tariff costs reached consumer prices within six months, with the remainder affecting importers and retailers, thereby squeezing their margins [5][6] - This delayed pass-through of costs contributes to a gradual erosion of purchasing power, which accumulates pressure without immediate inflation spikes [6] Group 3 - The stagnation in crypto markets is linked to the availability of discretionary liquidity, which is influenced by consumer and business confidence in deploying excess capital [7]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 rose 0.3%, breaking a two-day losing streak and moving closer to its all-time high set on Monday [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.6%, while the Nasdaq composite climbed 0.2% [1] - The S&P 500 closed at 6,944.47, the Dow at 49,442.44, and the Nasdaq at 23,530.02 [2] Economic Indicators - Oil prices eased sharply, contributing to market stability amid hopes for calming tensions in Iran [2] - Treasury yields and stocks of smaller companies rose following positive reports on the U.S. economy [2] Weekly and Yearly Performance - For the week, the S&P 500 is down 0.3%, the Dow is down 0.1%, and the Nasdaq is down 0.6%, while the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies is up 1.9% [3] - Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 1.4%, the Dow is up 2.9%, the Nasdaq is up 1.2%, and the Russell 2000 is up 7.8% [3] Company-Specific Insights - Nvidia and other high-flying tech stocks contributed to the market's lift following strong profits and investment plans reported by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., a key supplier in the industry [1]

Core Insights - Both Bank of America and Wells Fargo reported increased profits for the fourth quarter and full year, marking their highest full-year net income in four years [1][2]. Financial Performance - Bank of America's net income for the fourth quarter was $7.6 billion, a 12% increase from the previous year, exceeding forecasts of $7.4 billion [1]. - Wells Fargo's net income rose 6% to $5.4 billion, aligning with forecasts [1]. - Earnings per share for Bank of America was $0.98, surpassing expectations, while Wells Fargo's earnings per share was $1.62, falling short of the forecast of $1.67 [2]. Revenue Drivers - Bank of America experienced a 7% increase in firm-wide revenue to $28 billion, driven by higher lending revenues and fees [3]. - Wells Fargo's revenue increased by 4% to $21.3 billion, also attributed to higher lending revenues and fees [3]. - Bank of America's fourth quarter dealmaking revenue rose 1% to $1.67 billion, while trading fees increased by 10% to $4.5 billion, primarily due to equities [3]. - Wells Fargo's investment banking revenue fell 1%, but its markets division reported an 8% increase in trading fees to $1.6 billion [4]. Management Outlook - The CEOs of both banks expressed optimism regarding the U.S. economy and their institutions' future growth [4]. - Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan highlighted a bullish outlook for the U.S. economy in 2026 [4]. - Wells Fargo CEO Charles Scharf noted the company's ability to compete more effectively following the loosening of growth restrictions, allowing for increased resource allocation towards growth [5].

Monetary Policy & Market Intervention - The market anticipates continued monetary easing, but under a different label than "QE" [1] - Policy adjustments are expected to protect the stock market, given its perceived importance to the US economy [2] Market Outlook - The stock market is closely tied to the US economy [2]

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