Capital Group is favoring international equities over US peers, citing opportunities created by corporate governance reforms in countries like Japan https://t.co/C1wl1Fdawi ...

Market Trends & Expectations - Investors are anticipating Nvidia's earnings report, noting high short interest since June [1] - Expectations for IPOs are high in the coming weeks [2] - Institutional investors are expected to return next week to gather Q3 data points at industry conferences [3] - A potential 10-15% dip in high-quality US equities could be a buying opportunity [4] - Retail sector is at a 52-week high, indicating consumer spending is not declining sharply [6] AI & Productivity - AI investment is expected to drive productivity gains for large companies, with benefits anticipated in late 2026 and 2027 [9][10] - Growth stocks, particularly in AI, semiconductors, compute infrastructure, and life sciences, are expected to remain attractive investments [12] - Margin expansion is probable due to AI infrastructure investments [15] Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - The market is considering the possibility of a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy [15] - Running below 2% inflation for a long time would be fine [16] - The S&P 500 is considered a superior asset class due to its managed nature, with underperforming companies being replaced [13][14] Investment Strategy - A significant portion (77%) of the mega-cap universe market cap is attributed to growth stocks, with only 3% to value stocks [10] - It is difficult to be bearish on US equities if margins are close [12] - Shorting US equities is not advisable if margins are expected to increase due to AI and the Fed is not a problem [17]

Market Sentiment & Strategy - Dips in high-quality stocks should be bought, anticipating institutional investors' interest if prices drop by 10-15% [2] - The market's valuation is not currently a problem, with expectations of higher earnings trajectories for the next few years [3] - The risk is skewed to the positive for year-end, with any material weakness expected to be bought due to positive earnings outlook [11] - US equities are favored due to US companies' overexposure to themes expected to grow above global GDP [13] Economic Indicators & Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending remains strong, suggesting no immediate recession concerns [5] - The aggregate consumer is in good shape, although potentially eroding from highs [7] - The Fed is unlikely to cut rates unless data deteriorates significantly, as they tend to lag market indicators [17][19] Sector-Specific Insights - Semi-conductors performance is crucial for market momentum, particularly concerning tariff issues [7] - Bank earnings were strong, but the stocks' limited reaction may be a tactical concern [8] - US companies in tech, communication services, and financials are well-positioned for earnings growth, representing 58% of the S&P [13]

Geopolitical & Market Confidence - Investors appear to be largely shrugging off geopolitical tensions, with a baseline assumption that conflicts will not escalate significantly [1][2] - Despite potential ceasefire breaks, futures are higher, suggesting investor confidence in the situation remaining stable [1] Equity Strategy - The firm is modestly overweight equities, seeing opportunities more broadly across the asset class [3] - A neutral geographic allocation within equities is favored, indicating no strong conviction in a particular region or country [4][5] US Market Focus - With the Federal Reserve potentially easing and geopolitical tensions lessening, the US market remains a key area of focus [6] - Cyclical sectors like financials or industrials are attractive investment areas, potentially leading the market [7] US Small Cap Opportunities - US small caps are being considered, especially if sustained US economic growth holds up despite tariffs [8][9] - Small caps offer diversified access to US growth, excluding the mega-cap tech exposure prevalent in the S&P 500 [13][14] - Russell 2000 futures are up over 1%, outperforming NASDAQ [11]