Core Viewpoint - David Rosenberg, a well-known economist and founder of Rosenberg Research, has established a fund based on his bearish outlook on the US economy, which has yielded significant returns this year [1][2]. Performance Summary - The Rosie Macro Fund has achieved a 28% return year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500's 14% gain [2]. - From February to April 2023, the fund outperformed the S&P 500 by over 1,200 basis points and the typical 60/40 stock-bond portfolio by 460 basis points during a market downturn caused by tariffs [2]. Fund Composition - The fund includes a diverse range of investments, focusing on capital preservation and cash flows, with significant allocations to US Treasury ETFs, defense technology, uranium, and gold [4][7]. - Key holdings include: - US Treasury 10-year Note ETF (9.8%) - US Treasury 2-Year Note ETF (9.0%) - Global X Defense Tech ETF (7.1%) - Global X Uranium ETF (6.6%) - SPDR Gold Shares ETF (6.6%) [7]. Future Plans - Rosenberg's firm is in the process of converting the Rosie Macro Fund into a listed exchange-traded fund (ETF), potentially launching as early as January [8]. Economic Outlook - Rosenberg maintains a pessimistic view on the US economy, predicting a recession and a period of negative returns for stocks, contrasting with the prevailing bullish sentiment on Wall Street [9].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **US economy** and its recession probabilities, highlighting various economic indicators and their implications for future growth. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **US Recession Probability**: The probability of a US recession is currently at **93%**, indicating a stable but elevated risk level since May 2025, with hard data showing weakness in July 2025 [2][3][19]. 2. **Hard Data Trends**: The hard data factor has remained in negative territory since February 2025, suggesting a contraction in the economic cycle. Despite a brief recovery at the end of the previous year, the current trend indicates a downturn [3][18]. 3. **Yield Curve Analysis**: As of July 2025, **23%** of the US Treasury yield curve is inverted, which is stable since May but has increased by approximately **20 percentage points** since January 2025. This inversion is a historical signal of potential recessions [4][20]. 4. **Credit Stress Indicators**: The recession probability based on credit metrics has risen to **41%** by the end of Q2 2025, primarily due to declining interest coverage as net interest expenses increase [5][24]. 5. **Aggregate Recession Probability**: The combined recession probability across various indicators stands at **52%**, stable since May but up **15 percentage points** since January 2025. This reflects a broader economic slowdown despite some optimistic indicators at the end of 2024 [6][23]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Economic Growth Outlook**: The US Economics team does not forecast an immediate recession but anticipates "soggy growth" before a potential recovery in 2026. The term "Stall speed" was used to describe the current economic conditions, indicating limited room for further downside [6]. 2. **Contributions to Economic Indicators**: Most contributions to the hard data factor are negative but not severe, suggesting a weak economic environment without signs of imminent collapse [3][16]. 3. **Employment Data**: The upcoming employment situation report for August 2025 is expected to provide further insights into the labor market, which is a critical component of the economic outlook [2]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the economic indicators and their implications for the US economy.