ab 2 September 2025 Global Research Global Economic Perspectives US recession probability: stable but elevated US hard data in July overall weak, but stable: recprob at 93% With the BEA's monthly personal income (and personal consumption expenditures) release, we have all the information in hand for a full hard data picture for July, as seen through the lens of our leading indicator factor model (see here for details). Recall that the factor extracts a signal net of surveys, PMIs and financial data...just t ...