Market Outlook - The US market is perceived as expensive and heavily reliant on the AI sector, raising concerns about its sustainability [2][3] - Anticipation of significant IPOs in the near future could lead to a substantial influx of supply, potentially overwhelming the market [2][5] IPO Concerns - The expected IPOs from major companies like SpaceX and OpenAI could introduce hundreds of billions of dollars in supply, which may negatively impact market stability [3][6] - Historical trends indicate that large bursts of IPOs can lead to market downturns, as seen in 2021 and 2000 [8] Investment Strategy - There is a preference for international investments over US equities, particularly in Europe and Japan, where there are perceived opportunities for strong returns [4][5] - The dollar is considered overvalued, further supporting the shift towards international markets [4] Market Dynamics - The market's inelasticity suggests that large capital flows from IPOs can lead to significant corrections, as past events have demonstrated [8][9] - The critical issue is not the timing of the IPOs but rather when existing shareholders are allowed to sell their shares, which can create additional market pressure [9]

Core Insights - The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: VOO) has achieved a year-to-date return of 17.67%, indicating strong performance in the US market [1] - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: SPY) closely follows with a year-to-date return of 17.56%, showcasing competitive performance among major ETFs [1]

First time seeing Bitget (peer/competitor) posts good things about me. 😂Truly appreciate it. 🙏🤝Gracy Chen @Bitget (@GracyBitget):很为CZ和行业感到高兴。经此一役，更多加密公司，尤其是交易所都会更认真地布局美国市场Happy for CZ and the industry. After this episode, more crypto companies, esp exchanges, will likely strengthen their focus on the US market. ...

Group 1 - The enthusiasm for European stock markets in the first quarter has faded, indicating it was merely an anomaly [1] - The US market has evidently regained dominance over European markets [1] - A quarter of European companies' earnings come from the US, and tariff increases are expected to cause damage in the coming quarters [1]

Market Overview - US housing market is currently experiencing a "frozen" state, making it difficult to buy or sell [1] Experts Analysis - Sarah Sholder, Mr Gopal, and FairweatherPhD discuss the frozen US market on the Big Take podcast [1]

Trade Negotiations & Tariff Landscape - The US administration initially promised numerous trade deals within a short timeframe, but has achieved limited results, indicating challenges in finalizing agreements [3] - The US is pursuing reciprocal tariffs, aiming to lower them upon reaching deals, but this approach doesn't cover potential sectoral tariffs on critical minerals, aerospace, semiconductors, or pharmaceuticals, complicating negotiations [6][7] - Many US trading partners express confusion regarding US demands, perceiving a lack of clear objectives and prioritization in negotiations [8][10][11] - Countries are diversifying trade relationships to reduce dependence on the US market, leading to increased free trade agreement activity among other nations [13][14] - The administration may become more flexible in trade negotiations if the US experiences economic fallout from tariff hikes [15] Potential Outcomes & Risks - If trade deals are not finalized by August 1st, tariff levels may increase, potentially forcing compliance or leading countries to seek alternative trading partners [4][12] - Sectoral tariffs, such as those on autos, copper, and potentially semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, are proving difficult to resolve and may hinder broader trade negotiations [5][7] - The US risks being excluded from the benefits of increased trade and economic integration among its partners as they pursue alternative arrangements [14]