Our next guest does believe that there is in fact some good signs for 26. Joining us here at Post 9 today is GMO's co-head of asset allocation, Ben Ink. Ben, welcome.It's good to have you. >> Thanks very much for having me. >> What What do you think at least the first half looks like >> of 2026.Uh, you know, we're nervous because the US market is very expensive and very reliant on the AI trade. Uh, I'm actually more worried about what happens after the the giant IPOs that people are talking about come to ma ...

Core Insights - The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: VOO) has achieved a year-to-date return of 17.67%, indicating strong performance in the US market [1] - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: SPY) closely follows with a year-to-date return of 17.56%, showcasing competitive performance among major ETFs [1]

First time seeing Bitget (peer/competitor) posts good things about me. 😂Truly appreciate it. 🙏🤝Gracy Chen @Bitget (@GracyBitget):很为CZ和行业感到高兴。经此一役，更多加密公司，尤其是交易所都会更认真地布局美国市场Happy for CZ and the industry. After this episode, more crypto companies, esp exchanges, will likely strengthen their focus on the US market. ...

Group 1 - The enthusiasm for European stock markets in the first quarter has faded, indicating it was merely an anomaly [1] - The US market has evidently regained dominance over European markets [1] - A quarter of European companies' earnings come from the US, and tariff increases are expected to cause damage in the coming quarters [1]

Market Overview - US housing market is currently experiencing a "frozen" state, making it difficult to buy or sell [1] Experts Analysis - Sarah Sholder, Mr Gopal, and FairweatherPhD discuss the frozen US market on the Big Take podcast [1]

Trade Negotiations & Tariff Landscape - The US administration initially promised numerous trade deals within a short timeframe, but has achieved limited results, indicating challenges in finalizing agreements [3] - The US is pursuing reciprocal tariffs, aiming to lower them upon reaching deals, but this approach doesn't cover potential sectoral tariffs on critical minerals, aerospace, semiconductors, or pharmaceuticals, complicating negotiations [6][7] - Many US trading partners express confusion regarding US demands, perceiving a lack of clear objectives and prioritization in negotiations [8][10][11] - Countries are diversifying trade relationships to reduce dependence on the US market, leading to increased free trade agreement activity among other nations [13][14] - The administration may become more flexible in trade negotiations if the US experiences economic fallout from tariff hikes [15] Potential Outcomes & Risks - If trade deals are not finalized by August 1st, tariff levels may increase, potentially forcing compliance or leading countries to seek alternative trading partners [4][12] - Sectoral tariffs, such as those on autos, copper, and potentially semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, are proving difficult to resolve and may hinder broader trade negotiations [5][7] - The US risks being excluded from the benefits of increased trade and economic integration among its partners as they pursue alternative arrangements [14]