Global Economic Outlook - The global economic outlook for 2025 presents multiple scenarios, with a 60% probability of a resilient US economy and a 40% chance of recession, influenced by escalating tariff conflicts with China [1][6][7] - The average tariff on Chinese goods has reached 42%, significantly impacting China's exports and manufacturing sector, while exports to ASEAN and other markets remain resilient [1][5][23] China's Macroeconomic Conditions - China's GDP is projected to grow by 4.8% in 2025, slightly down from 5.0% in 2024, with limited contributions from consumption and investment, while net exports contribute 0.6 percentage points [1][2] - Inflation pressures persist, with CPI expected to decrease by 0.1% and PPI fluctuating due to global commodity prices [1][2] - The real estate market continues to adjust, with new home sales and construction area declining, although prices remain relatively stable [1][2] Policy Measures - Starting September 2024, a "three arrows" policy has been implemented, focusing on structural rebalancing, fiscal stimulus, and monetary easing, with a fiscal deficit target of 4% and expanded special bond issuance [1][2][98] - Monetary policy is moderately accommodative, with measures including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to support credit growth, despite pressure on banks' net interest margins [1][2] Long-term Trends - China's economy is transitioning from high-speed growth to high-quality development, facing challenges such as aging population and debt pressures, while urbanization and human capital improvements offer growth potential [2][5] - The US-China relationship is reshaping global supply chains, with increased diversification of China's export markets towards ASEAN and Latin America due to US "friendshoring" policies [2][5] Risks and Challenges - Key risks include trade tensions, real estate market adjustments, local government debt issues, and fluctuations in external demand, necessitating a focus on stabilizing growth and mitigating risks [2][5]