US stock futures rose Monday morning as Wall Street looked to extend last month’s momentum into November. S&P 500 futures (ES=F) and Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ=F) made gains of 0.2% and 0.3% respectively. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) added about 0.1%. Wall Street is looking to keep up a rally that raged throughout October. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 2.3% last month, the Dow (^DJI) climbed 2.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) surged 4.7% as investors piled into growth and AI-linked names, with ...

US stock futures rose Monday morning as Wall Street looked to extend last month’s momentum into November. S&P 500 futures (ES=F) and Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ=F) made gains of 0.3% and 0.6%, respectively. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) added about 0.1%. Wall Street is looking to keep up a rally that raged throughout October. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 2.3% last month, the Dow (^DJI) climbed 2.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) surged 4.7% for its seventh consecutive month of gains. Investors p ...

Core Viewpoint - Apple CEO Tim Cook provided a positive forecast for holiday quarter iPhone sales and overall revenue, surpassing Wall Street expectations, driven by strong demand for iPhone 17 models despite ongoing supply constraints [1][4]. Sales Performance - In the fiscal fourth quarter, Apple missed iPhone sales forecasts due to supply constraints and shipping delays to China, but overall sales reached $102.47 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $102.26 billion [2][12]. - iPhone sales for the quarter were $49.03 billion, below expectations of $50.19 billion, while profit was $1.85 per share, beating forecasts of $1.77 per share [12][8]. Future Outlook - Cook anticipates double-digit growth in iPhone sales and overall revenue growth of 10-12% year over year for the holiday quarter, which exceeds analyst estimates of 9.8% growth in iPhone sales and 6.6% growth in total sales [4][15]. - The company is addressing supply constraints for several iPhone 17 models and is optimistic about returning to growth in China, despite recent sales contractions [5][6]. Product Insights - The new iPhone Air model faced delays in China, impacting sales, but Cook expressed enthusiasm about the product's reception and potential [5][6]. - Sales in the services segment reached $28.75 billion, surpassing estimates, while Mac and iPad sales also exceeded expectations [14]. Market Context - Apple's share price rose 3.8% in after-hours trading following the positive forecast, although its share gains have lagged behind competitors in the tech sector this year [2][7]. - The company continues to face challenges related to US-China trade tensions and the rollout of AI features, but these factors have had a lesser impact than anticipated [3][10].

Economic Decoupling - Both the US and China have achieved a degree of economic decoupling, mitigating the impact on each other's economies [1] - US exports to China, such as soybeans and airplanes, are not critical to the overall US economic outlook [1] - Similarly, Chinese exports to the US are not crucial for the Chinese economy [1] Supply Chain Concerns - Potential supply chain disruptions exist, particularly concerning materials needed for autos and defense, including rare earth elements [2] Trade and Tariffs - The US hiking tariffs to 145% on China earlier in the year is unsustainable [3] - Trade is integrated enough that complete decoupling is not possible, despite efforts over the years, especially during Trump's first administration [3] - De-escalation of trade tensions is anticipated and should positively impact both economies [3]

AI Investment and Market Dynamics - Big Tech companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta are making prudent AI investments to match customer demand, supported by long-term contracts [1] - Some entities are creating special purpose vehicles for AI investments, funded by tens of billions of debt, which could be a sign of a potential bubble [1][2] - Nvidia's practice of investing in companies like OpenAI, which then commit to Nvidia's chips, is considered an unhealthy behavior, especially when funded by high-leverage debt [1] - OpenAI, while not currently selling ads, is expected to eventually enter the advertising market and take market share from Meta, Google, and ByteDance (TikTok) [5][6] Ad Market Performance - Meta's ad revenue grew 22% last quarter, while Google's grew 12%, but the gap is expected to narrow [4] Apple's Performance and Geopolitical Risks - The strength of the current iPhone upgrade cycle is uncertain, and Apple's stock is currently expensive relative to its growth potential [7][8] - US-China trade tensions pose a risk to Apple, adding volatility, but this risk is largely priced in [10] - There is a slow decoupling from China, with Apple pulling production out of China and Nvidia moving production out of Asia [10][11]

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Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Factors - The dollar index (DXY00) is up by +0.07% at a 1-week high, supported by weakness in the British pound following a weaker-than-expected UK September CPI report [1] - US-China trade tensions have eased, contributing to dollar strength after President Trump expressed optimism about relations with China [1] - Ongoing US government shutdown poses a bearish outlook for the dollar, with potential implications for the US economy and Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] Group 2: Euro and ECB Insights - The markets are pricing in a 97% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on October 28-29 [2] - The euro (EUR/USD) is down by -0.05% at a 1-week low, influenced by dollar strength and a budget impasse in France [2] - ECB Vice President Guindos stated that the current ECB interest-rate level is "adequate," providing some support to the euro despite the bearish sentiment [2][3] Group 3: Japanese Yen and Trade Data - The USD/JPY is up by +0.01%, with the yen remaining relatively unchanged [4] - Japanese trade data shows September exports rose by +4.2% year-on-year, the largest increase in seven months, while imports rose by +3.3% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [5] - Concerns about new Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi advocating for a less hawkish monetary policy may limit gains in the yen [4]

Core Insights - Crude oil prices experienced mixed movements, supported by US plans to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and easing US-China trade tensions, while gasoline prices declined [1][2] Group 1: Crude Oil Market Dynamics - November WTI crude oil closed up by 0.30 (+0.52%), while November RBOB gasoline closed down by -0.0049 (-0.27%) [1] - The Trump administration's plan to purchase 1 million barrels of oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve provided support for crude prices, despite concerns about a global supply glut [3] - OPEC+ agreed to a 137,000 bpd increase in crude production starting in November, which was less than market expectations, contributing to price support [5] Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - Easing tensions in the Middle East following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas reduced risk premiums in crude prices [4] - Reduced crude exports from Russia due to Ukrainian attacks on refineries have limited Russia's export capabilities, supporting oil prices [6] Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - A forecast by the IEA indicated a record global oil surplus of 4.0 million bpd for 2026, raising concerns about oversupply [3] - A reported decrease of 12% in crude oil stored on stationary tankers worldwide is seen as bullish for oil prices [4]

Currency Market Overview - The dollar index (DXY) is up by +0.30%, reaching a four-session high, driven by weakness in the yen and easing US-China trade tensions [1] - The yen has fallen to a one-week low against the dollar, influenced by expectations that new Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi will maintain an expansionary fiscal policy [1][5] - The euro is down by -0.26% due to the strength of the dollar and negative sentiment from S&P Global Ratings cutting France's sovereign debt credit rating [3] Economic Indicators - The October Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing business activity survey fell by -9.9 to a four-month low of -22.2, indicating a slowdown in business activity [2] - Markets are pricing in a 99% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on October 28-29 [2] Japanese Economic Developments - Japan's September machine tool orders were revised upward to +11.0% year-on-year, marking the largest increase in six months [6] - The yen is under pressure as Takaichi's policies favor increased deficit spending and expanded financial stimulus, alongside a rise in the Nikkei Stock Index to a new record high [5]

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices have settled slightly lower, with crude reaching a 5.5-month low, influenced by a stronger dollar and potential increases in Russian oil supply due to diplomatic discussions [2][5]. Price Movements - November WTI crude oil closed down -0.02 (-0.03%) and November RBOB gasoline closed down -0.0075 (-0.41%) [1]. Market Influences - The strength of the dollar has negatively impacted crude prices, while easing US-China trade tensions have provided some support for global growth and energy demand [2][3]. - Stronger-than-expected Chinese economic data, including a Q3 GDP increase of +1.1% q/q and +4.8% y/y, has been supportive for energy demand [4]. Supply Dynamics - Concerns about a global supply glut are significant bearish factors for crude prices, with the IEA forecasting a record global oil surplus of 4.0 million bpd for 2026 [4]. - A decrease in crude oil held on tankers, reported to have fallen by -12% w/w to 78.44 million bbl, is seen as bullish for oil prices [5]. OPEC+ Actions - OPEC+ agreed to a modest increase of 137,000 bpd in crude production targets starting in November, which was below market expectations [6]. - OPEC's September crude production rose by +400,000 bpd to 29.05 million bpd, marking the highest level in 2.5 years [6]. Geopolitical Factors - Reduced crude exports from Russia due to Ukrainian attacks on refineries have limited Russia's export capabilities, with total seaborne fuel shipments dropping to 1.88 million bpd in early October, the lowest in over 3.25 years [7].