By Stephanie Kelly LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices edged lower on Wednesday, as investors weighed the International Energy Agency's prediction of a supply surplus in 2026 and trade tensions between the United States and China that could curtail demand. Brent crude futures fell 21 cents, or 0.3%, to $62.18 a barrel by 0854 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures eased 13 cents, or 0.2%, to $58.57 a barrel. Both contracts closed at five-month lows in the previous trading session. The International E ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are experiencing a decline due to concerns over a potential supply surplus in 2026 as indicated by the International Energy Agency, alongside ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions [1] Group 1: Oil Prices - Oil prices fell in early trade on Wednesday, continuing losses from the previous session [1] - Investors are reacting to the International Energy Agency's warning about a supply surplus expected in 2026 [1] - The decline in oil prices is also influenced by the current state of U.S.-China trade relations [1]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices increased due to early indications of improved U.S.-China trade relations, which enhanced market sentiment and reduced worries about global fuel demand [1] Group 1 - Oil prices rose on Tuesday, reflecting a positive market reaction to the potential easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China [1] - The alleviation of concerns regarding global fuel demand contributed to the rise in oil prices [1]

Market Performance & Trends - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by almost 600 points, a gain of 13% [1] - The NASDAQ experienced a significant rise of 221% [2] - The S&P 500 rose by approximately 15%, marking the best day for these indices and tech/chip stocks since May [2] - Tech and consumer discretionary sectors led gains, while staples and healthcare sectors saw losses [3] - China's stocks, including Baba (Alibaba), JD (JDcom), and Baidu (BIDU), rebounded strongly [4] Investment Strategy & Risk Factors - Investment firms emphasize maintaining a long-term view, as the best market days often follow the worst [8] - US-China trade tensions contribute to market vulnerability, but de-escalation is expected due to significant consequences [10][11] - Over-concentration on AI investments poses a risk, requiring diversification into other themes like military spending and healthcare [19][21][23][24] Earnings Season Focus - The market's focus during earnings season will be on capital expenditure (capex) related to AI, particularly from large hyperscalers [16] - Investors should look for evidence of AI deployment boosting margins across various companies, including financials [17] Gold Market Analysis - Central bank buying, especially from BRICS nations, is a significant driver for gold's rally, shifting away from the US dollar as a reserve currency [41][42] - Potential gold price targets include $4500 by the end of the year and $5000+ a year from now, contingent on fundamental shifts [44] - Near-term risks for gold investors include potential retracement after significant price moves, although this is mitigated by Fed rate cuts and central bank buying [45] - Factors that could weaken the constructive view on gold include government actions to cut deficit spending, dropping tariffs, or the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates [56][57]

Shares of Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) climbed 3.57% and 2.61%, respectively, during Monday pre-market trading session, after President Donald Trump softened stance on China tariffs. Magnificent Seven Stocks Rise As Trump Signals Trade CalmThe other Magnificent Seven stocks, Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) rose 2.05%, 1.68%, 1.57%, each, while Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) climbed 1. ...

Market Reaction to Trade Tensions - The market reacted negatively to renewed US-China trade tensions, with stocks sliding as President Trump threatened significant tariff hikes on China [1][2] - Investors were looking for an excuse to sell, and the current situation provided that opportunity, leading to a 2% selloff not seen in six months [2] Tariff Risks and Economic Outlook - If the truce between the US and China is not extended by November 10th, tariffs could escalate to 145%, raising concerns about trade tensions [3][5] - Despite current volatility, there is a belief that the economic policy mix, including Fed rate cuts and fiscal stimulus, will support market recovery by 2026 [4][8] Investment Strategy - The company remains bullish on buying the dip, focusing on cyclical sectors such as consumer discretionary and financials, anticipating higher earnings expectations for 2025 and 2026 [4][8] - A steeper yield curve is expected as the Fed continues to cut rates, which will likely boost loan activity and M&A, supporting the financial sector [9] Earnings Expectations - Current GDP growth is projected at 3.8%, with job creation averaging 29,000, indicating potential for higher revenues and stable cost structures, which should enhance corporate earnings [12][13] - Earnings delivery is expected to broaden beyond the largest companies, benefiting small and mid-cap stocks as well [14] AI Investment Sentiment - The cost of not investing in AI is perceived to be greater than the risks of overinvestment, with investor sentiment remaining positive towards companies aggressively investing in AI technology [15] - There is a belief that tangible signs of overinvestment are needed before investors will react negatively to the current AI capital expenditure cycle [15] Government Shutdown Impact - The government shutdown is expected to shave about 15 basis points off GDP for each week it continues, but the overall economic trajectory and earnings expectations remain unchanged [17][18]

: US stocks dropped sharply on Friday after US president Donald Trump threatened a “massive” increase in tariffs on Chinese imports, accusing Beijing of “becoming very hostile” with new restrictions on rare earth metals, a key resource for the tech and defense industries, as per a CNBC report.Stock Market Suffers Sharp Losses After Trump’s Tariff ThreatThe Trump Cancels Meeting with Xi, Signals New Tariff Plans Trump wrote on Truth Social, “I was to meet President Xi in two weeks, at APEC, in South Korea, ...

US stocks nosedived Friday after President Trump threatened a “massive increase” of tariffs on China, accusing the nation of “becoming very hostile” in its rare earth restrictions.The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 518 points, or 1.1%, by approximately 12:25 p.m. ET, while the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 1.3% and 1.8%, respectively.Investors quickly grew fearful of heightened trade tensions as Trump appeared to cancel a planned meeting between himself and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping later th ...

In the Capital Connectors series, exclusive interviews with six influential Chinese and global bankers reveal the opportunities and challenges for Hong Kong in its evolution as an international financial hub. Hong Kong has become the fundraising venue of choice for Chinese technology giants, surpassing the US thanks to growing liquidity, market reforms and proximity to their home market, according to a senior banker at Goldman Sachs. With Chinese technology firms being a clear focus of international inve ...

Core Viewpoint - U.S. tech firms are navigating challenges posed by export controls and bans from both the U.S. and China, impacting their market strategies and operations [1] Group 1: U.S. Tech Firms - U.S. tech companies are facing increasing pressure as both the U.S. government and China implement export controls and product bans [1] - The competitive landscape is shifting as these firms attempt to maintain their market positions while complying with regulatory changes [1] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions are forcing U.S. tech firms to adapt their business models and supply chains to mitigate risks associated with these export restrictions [1]