Market Performance - US stock futures rose on Monday morning, with S&P 500 futures gaining 0.2%, Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.3%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures increasing by 0.1% as Wall Street aims to extend October's momentum [1] - In October, the S&P 500 rose by 2.3%, the Dow climbed 2.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite surged 4.7%, driven by investments in growth and AI-linked companies, particularly Big Tech and the "Magnificent Seven" [2] Economic Indicators - The US government shutdown is delaying key economic data, including the jobs report that was expected this week, which may impact market sentiment [3] - The Supreme Court is set to hear arguments regarding the legality of President Trump's tariffs, which could have significant implications for trade and economic policy [3] Earnings Reports - Earnings season is ongoing, with approximately 300 S&P 500 companies having reported third-quarter results, and over 100 additional reports expected this week from companies such as Palantir, Super Micro, and AMD [4] Sector Reports - Due to the absence of government data, reports from the manufacturing and services sectors by the Institute for Supply Management and S&P Global will be particularly significant this week [5] - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment report, scheduled for release on Friday, will also be closely monitored amid concerns about potential consumer pullback [5] Commodity Market - Gold prices fell below the $4000 mark following the removal of China's tax incentive for purchasing gold through local retailers, indicating a shift in demand dynamics [5]

Market Overview - US stock futures rose on Monday morning, with S&P 500 futures gaining 0.3%, Nasdaq 100 futures increasing by 0.6%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures adding about 0.1% [1] - Wall Street aims to maintain the rally from October, where the S&P 500 rose 2.3%, Dow climbed 2.5%, and Nasdaq surged 4.7%, marking its seventh consecutive month of gains [2] Corporate Earnings - Approximately 300 S&P 500 companies have reported third-quarter results, with over 100 more reports expected this week, including from Palantir, Super Micro, and AMD [4] - Berkshire Hathaway's stock rose more than 1% in premarket trading following a 17% profit increase in its third-quarter earnings, attributed to a mild hurricane season and paper investment gains [4] Corporate Actions - Kimberly-Clark announced its acquisition of Kenvue, creating a $32 billion health and wellness company, resulting in a 20% surge in Kenvue's stock, while Kimberly-Clark shares fell by 15% [5] Economic Indicators - The ongoing US government shutdown is delaying key economic data, including the jobs report, which was expected this week [3] - Upcoming releases from the manufacturing and services sectors by the Institute for Supply Management and S&P Global are anticipated to carry more significance due to the lack of government data [6]

Core Viewpoint - Apple CEO Tim Cook provided a positive forecast for holiday quarter iPhone sales and overall revenue, surpassing Wall Street expectations, driven by strong demand for iPhone 17 models despite ongoing supply constraints [1][4]. Sales Performance - In the fiscal fourth quarter, Apple missed iPhone sales forecasts due to supply constraints and shipping delays to China, but overall sales reached $102.47 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $102.26 billion [2][12]. - iPhone sales for the quarter were $49.03 billion, below expectations of $50.19 billion, while profit was $1.85 per share, beating forecasts of $1.77 per share [12][8]. Future Outlook - Cook anticipates double-digit growth in iPhone sales and overall revenue growth of 10-12% year over year for the holiday quarter, which exceeds analyst estimates of 9.8% growth in iPhone sales and 6.6% growth in total sales [4][15]. - The company is addressing supply constraints for several iPhone 17 models and is optimistic about returning to growth in China, despite recent sales contractions [5][6]. Product Insights - The new iPhone Air model faced delays in China, impacting sales, but Cook expressed enthusiasm about the product's reception and potential [5][6]. - Sales in the services segment reached $28.75 billion, surpassing estimates, while Mac and iPad sales also exceeded expectations [14]. Market Context - Apple's share price rose 3.8% in after-hours trading following the positive forecast, although its share gains have lagged behind competitors in the tech sector this year [2][7]. - The company continues to face challenges related to US-China trade tensions and the rollout of AI features, but these factors have had a lesser impact than anticipated [3][10].

Economic Decoupling - Both the US and China have achieved a degree of economic decoupling, mitigating the impact on each other's economies [1] - US exports to China, such as soybeans and airplanes, are not critical to the overall US economic outlook [1] - Similarly, Chinese exports to the US are not crucial for the Chinese economy [1] Supply Chain Concerns - Potential supply chain disruptions exist, particularly concerning materials needed for autos and defense, including rare earth elements [2] Trade and Tariffs - The US hiking tariffs to 145% on China earlier in the year is unsustainable [3] - Trade is integrated enough that complete decoupling is not possible, despite efforts over the years, especially during Trump's first administration [3] - De-escalation of trade tensions is anticipated and should positively impact both economies [3]

AI Investment and Market Dynamics - Big Tech companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta are making prudent AI investments to match customer demand, supported by long-term contracts [1] - Some entities are creating special purpose vehicles for AI investments, funded by tens of billions of debt, which could be a sign of a potential bubble [1][2] - Nvidia's practice of investing in companies like OpenAI, which then commit to Nvidia's chips, is considered an unhealthy behavior, especially when funded by high-leverage debt [1] - OpenAI, while not currently selling ads, is expected to eventually enter the advertising market and take market share from Meta, Google, and ByteDance (TikTok) [5][6] Ad Market Performance - Meta's ad revenue grew 22% last quarter, while Google's grew 12%, but the gap is expected to narrow [4] Apple's Performance and Geopolitical Risks - The strength of the current iPhone upgrade cycle is uncertain, and Apple's stock is currently expensive relative to its growth potential [7][8] - US-China trade tensions pose a risk to Apple, adding volatility, but this risk is largely priced in [10] - There is a slow decoupling from China, with Apple pulling production out of China and Nvidia moving production out of Asia [10][11]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of staying updated with international news for informed investment decisions [1] Group 1 - The Economic Times provides comprehensive coverage of US, UK, Canada, and international news events [1] - The platform offers daily updates on economic news, which can impact market trends and investment opportunities [1] - The news app is highlighted as a tool for accessing timely information, crucial for investors [1]

Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Factors - The dollar index (DXY00) is up by +0.07% at a 1-week high, supported by weakness in the British pound following a weaker-than-expected UK September CPI report [1] - US-China trade tensions have eased, contributing to dollar strength after President Trump expressed optimism about relations with China [1] - Ongoing US government shutdown poses a bearish outlook for the dollar, with potential implications for the US economy and Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] Group 2: Euro and ECB Insights - The markets are pricing in a 97% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on October 28-29 [2] - The euro (EUR/USD) is down by -0.05% at a 1-week low, influenced by dollar strength and a budget impasse in France [2] - ECB Vice President Guindos stated that the current ECB interest-rate level is "adequate," providing some support to the euro despite the bearish sentiment [2][3] Group 3: Japanese Yen and Trade Data - The USD/JPY is up by +0.01%, with the yen remaining relatively unchanged [4] - Japanese trade data shows September exports rose by +4.2% year-on-year, the largest increase in seven months, while imports rose by +3.3% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [5] - Concerns about new Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi advocating for a less hawkish monetary policy may limit gains in the yen [4]

Core Insights - Crude oil prices experienced mixed movements, supported by US plans to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and easing US-China trade tensions, while gasoline prices declined [1][2] Group 1: Crude Oil Market Dynamics - November WTI crude oil closed up by 0.30 (+0.52%), while November RBOB gasoline closed down by -0.0049 (-0.27%) [1] - The Trump administration's plan to purchase 1 million barrels of oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve provided support for crude prices, despite concerns about a global supply glut [3] - OPEC+ agreed to a 137,000 bpd increase in crude production starting in November, which was less than market expectations, contributing to price support [5] Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - Easing tensions in the Middle East following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas reduced risk premiums in crude prices [4] - Reduced crude exports from Russia due to Ukrainian attacks on refineries have limited Russia's export capabilities, supporting oil prices [6] Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - A forecast by the IEA indicated a record global oil surplus of 4.0 million bpd for 2026, raising concerns about oversupply [3] - A reported decrease of 12% in crude oil stored on stationary tankers worldwide is seen as bullish for oil prices [4]

Currency Market Overview - The dollar index (DXY) is up by +0.30%, reaching a four-session high, driven by weakness in the yen and easing US-China trade tensions [1] - The yen has fallen to a one-week low against the dollar, influenced by expectations that new Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi will maintain an expansionary fiscal policy [1][5] - The euro is down by -0.26% due to the strength of the dollar and negative sentiment from S&P Global Ratings cutting France's sovereign debt credit rating [3] Economic Indicators - The October Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing business activity survey fell by -9.9 to a four-month low of -22.2, indicating a slowdown in business activity [2] - Markets are pricing in a 99% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on October 28-29 [2] Japanese Economic Developments - Japan's September machine tool orders were revised upward to +11.0% year-on-year, marking the largest increase in six months [6] - The yen is under pressure as Takaichi's policies favor increased deficit spending and expanded financial stimulus, alongside a rise in the Nikkei Stock Index to a new record high [5]

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices have settled slightly lower, with crude reaching a 5.5-month low, influenced by a stronger dollar and potential increases in Russian oil supply due to diplomatic discussions [2][5]. Price Movements - November WTI crude oil closed down -0.02 (-0.03%) and November RBOB gasoline closed down -0.0075 (-0.41%) [1]. Market Influences - The strength of the dollar has negatively impacted crude prices, while easing US-China trade tensions have provided some support for global growth and energy demand [2][3]. - Stronger-than-expected Chinese economic data, including a Q3 GDP increase of +1.1% q/q and +4.8% y/y, has been supportive for energy demand [4]. Supply Dynamics - Concerns about a global supply glut are significant bearish factors for crude prices, with the IEA forecasting a record global oil surplus of 4.0 million bpd for 2026 [4]. - A decrease in crude oil held on tankers, reported to have fallen by -12% w/w to 78.44 million bbl, is seen as bullish for oil prices [5]. OPEC+ Actions - OPEC+ agreed to a modest increase of 137,000 bpd in crude production targets starting in November, which was below market expectations [6]. - OPEC's September crude production rose by +400,000 bpd to 29.05 million bpd, marking the highest level in 2.5 years [6]. Geopolitical Factors - Reduced crude exports from Russia due to Ukrainian attacks on refineries have limited Russia's export capabilities, with total seaborne fuel shipments dropping to 1.88 million bpd in early October, the lowest in over 3.25 years [7].