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外汇与利率情绪调查：寻找信号-FX and Rates Sentiment Survey_ Searching for signal

2025-12-16 03:26

Key Takeaways from the FX and Rates Sentiment Survey Industry Overview - The survey focuses on the foreign exchange (FX) and rates market sentiment among fund managers, providing insights into investor positioning and expectations for various asset classes and economic indicators. Core Insights 1. **Divergent Views in Developed Markets (DM)**: There is limited consensus among investors in developed markets, with an equal number of respondents expressing conviction in being long versus short rates. This indicates a mixed sentiment regarding risk exposure and currency positions, particularly concerning the USD and commodities [1][4][11]. 2. **Emerging Market (EM) Optimism**: Optimism in emerging markets has reached new post-2020 highs, driven by easing geopolitical tensions and expectations of lower US tariffs on China. The anticipated tariff rate is now expected to be below 30% by the end of 2026 [11][72]. 3. **AI's Impact on Growth and Rates**: Many investors believe that AI will lead to a steeper yield curve in the US, with expectations of improved economic growth in 2026. However, there is a split opinion on the immediate effects of AI on the USD, with some anticipating depreciation [8][21][23]. 4. **Cash Positioning**: Average cash levels among investors are reported at 3.7%, indicating a cautious approach as many investors are increasing cash balances towards year-end [81]. Additional Important Points 1. **Market Reactions to Tariff Changes**: A significant portion of respondents (38%) expects a "risk on" market reaction if the Supreme Court rules against the Administration on tariffs, suggesting a potential bullish sentiment in equities [42]. 2. **Fed Rate Expectations**: Most respondents anticipate three additional Fed rate cuts, with the terminal rate expected to be around 3.0% or lower. However, there are risks that the market may be underestimating the hawkish stance of the Fed [47][48]. 3. **Currency Sentiment**: The sentiment towards the USD has turned bearish, while the Eurozone's FX sentiment has become more bullish, breaking a previous bearish trend. This shift indicates a potential reallocation of investments towards European assets [102][110]. 4. **Geopolitical Factors**: The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is expected to influence market sentiment, with a plurality of respondents anticipating the war to end in 2026, which could further impact currency and commodity markets [74][75]. Summary of Key Metrics - **Tariff Expectations**: Majority expect US tariffs on China to be below 30% by end-2026, a shift from previous expectations of 30-40% [72]. - **AI Growth Impact**: AI is expected to boost growth significantly in 2026, with a steeper yield curve anticipated as a result [21][23]. - **Cash Levels**: Average cash levels at 3.7%, indicating a cautious investment approach [81]. - **Fed Rate Cuts**: Anticipation of three additional cuts, with a terminal rate expected around 3.0% [47][48]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the current sentiment and positioning within the FX and rates markets, reflecting investor concerns and expectations shaped by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical developments.