USDA报告数据调整
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国投期货玉米播种日报-20250826
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 14:23
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View As of the week ending August 24, the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans was 69%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, and that of the previous week was 68%, and 67% in the same period last year. The pod-setting rate of soybeans was 89%. The good-to-excellent rate of US corn was 71%, higher than the market expectation of 70%, the same as the previous week, and 65% in the same period last year. The dough stage rate was 72%, and the dent rate was 44%. The US soybeans and corn continued to grow well. In the next two weeks, the temperature in the main production areas of US soybeans and corn will be slightly lower, but the lack of rain will gradually become more serious, posing challenges to the growth of new-season crops. The soil moisture decreased week-on-week but was better than the same period last year. Currently, the overall weather in the US is stable, and the good-to-excellent rates of US soybeans and corn are still at relatively high levels, with high expectations of a bumper harvest. However, the subsequent weather changes in the production areas need to be continuously observed. In addition, the results of the US ProFarmer crop tour last week showed that the yield per unit area forecast of US soybeans and corn was slightly lower than the data in the August USDA monthly report but was still a record high. Attention should be paid to the data adjustment in the USDA September report [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Soybean Growth Indicators**: The good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans as of August 24 was 69%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, the previous week's 68%, and last year's 67%. The pod-setting rate was 89%. Other indicators such as the sowing rate (halted), emergence rate (halted), and flowering rate also had corresponding data, with comparisons to the previous week, last year, and the 5-year average [1]. - **Corn Growth Indicators**: The good-to-excellent rate of US corn as of August 24 was 71%, higher than the market expectation of 70%, the same as the previous week, and higher than last year's 65%. The dough stage rate was 72%, and the dent rate was 44%. Similar to soybeans, there were also data on sowing rate (halted), emergence rate (halted), and silking rate with relevant comparisons [1]. - **Weather Impact and Outlook**: In the next two weeks, the temperature in the main production areas of US soybeans and corn will be slightly lower, and the lack of rain will gradually intensify, which will challenge the growth of new-season crops. The soil moisture decreased week-on-week but was better than last year. Currently, the overall weather is stable, and the good-to-excellent rates of soybeans and corn are high, with high expectations of a bumper harvest. However, continuous observation of weather changes in the production areas is needed. The results of the ProFarmer crop tour showed a slight downward adjustment in the yield per unit area forecast compared to the August USDA report but still at a record high, and attention should be paid to the USDA September report [1].