Core Insights - The analysis indicates that the rapid rise in unauthorized immigrant worker flows (UIWF) from March 2021 to March 2024 had a nearly one-for-one effect on local employment growth, while the subsequent slowdown from March 2024 to March 2025 negatively impacted local employment, particularly in construction and manufacturing [3][25]. Group 1: Unauthorized Immigration and Employment - The increase in unauthorized immigrant workers has been linked to a significant rise in local employment, with estimates suggesting a one-for-one relationship between UIWF and employment growth during both the rapid rise and slowdown periods [3][25]. - The slowdown in unauthorized immigration has had a pronounced negative effect on local employment, especially in the construction and manufacturing sectors, indicating that these industries are particularly sensitive to changes in immigration flows [25][26]. Group 2: Industry-Specific Impacts - During the rapid rise period, industries such as leisure and hospitality, professional services, and other services experienced greater employment growth than would be expected based on their typical share of total employment, suggesting a strong positive impact from UIWF [22][24]. - In contrast, the slowdown period saw significant employment declines in construction, manufacturing, and other services, highlighting that areas with the largest decreases in unauthorized immigration also faced the most substantial slowdowns in employment growth [24][25].

Core Insights - U.S. net unauthorized immigration has rapidly declined, turning negative in February 2025, following a significant increase from early 2021 to early 2024, impacting demographic outlook, labor force participation, employment growth, and local labor markets [1][4][14] Immigration Trends - Net unauthorized immigration has been increasingly negative since early 2025, reaching -89,000 by July 2025, with a net loss of about 49,000 unauthorized immigrant workers in July alone [4][15] - Areas with the largest inflows from 2021 to 2024 are now experiencing the sharpest outflows, indicating potential further softening of those labor markets [5][25] Data and Methodology - The analysis utilizes individual-level data from immigration court proceedings and parole cases, along with aggregate information, to track trends in unauthorized immigration at national and local levels [3][8] - A bottom-up approach is employed to estimate unauthorized immigration entries and exits, allowing for monthly estimates of unauthorized immigrants through July 2025 [7][8] Employment Implications - The decline in net unauthorized immigration has implications for break-even employment growth, with a potential monthly average of -95,000 unauthorized immigrants by year-end 2025, significantly lower than previous estimates [16][17] - Working-age unauthorized immigration has averaged -37,000 per month since January 2025, contributing to an overall contraction of unauthorized immigrant employment by an average of 26,000 per month through July 2025 [18][20] Regional Insights - The geographic distribution of unauthorized immigration shows that counties in the West, southern states, and Northeast experienced the largest inflows during the surge period and are now facing the largest outflows [24][25] - The correlation between net unauthorized immigration during the surge and net emigration periods is -0.96, indicating a strong relationship between these trends [25]