Homebuyers can usher in 2026 with a little relief as mortgage rates fell to the lowest level of 2025 in the final report of the year. Freddie Mac's latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released Wednesday, showed the average rate on the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage decreased to 6.15% from last week's reading of 6.18%. The average rate on a 30-year loan started the year around 7%. "After starting the year close to 7%, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage moved to its lowest level in 2025 this we ...

Market Overview - The three major indices are on a four-session winning streak, with expectations for a potential Santa Claus rally starting in the last five trading days of the year [1][2] - There is a historical concern as the last two years did not see a Santa Claus rally, and this year could break that trend [2] Trading Conditions - The S&P 500 is expected to have a trading range of about 30 to 35 points, with current volatility at approximately 13.7% [3] - A more defensive rotation is observed in the market, with interest rate-sensitive stocks, consumer staples, real estate, and financials leading the way [5] Economic Data - Mortgage applications have decreased by 5% week-over-week, with the 30-year mortgage rate hovering around 6.3% [7][12] - Jobless claims came in at 214,000, better than the expected 224,000, indicating a mixed picture in the jobs market with an unemployment rate of 4.6% [8][10] - The four-week moving average for initial claims is around 216,000 jobs, reflecting some normalization after previous outlier reports [11] Inflation and GDP - Recent economic data has exceeded expectations, contributing to equity gains, with GDP numbers coming in 1% above forecasts [13] - CPI inflation is reported at 2.7% on the headline and 2.6% on core, suggesting that inflation may not be a significant concern for the Fed [21] Commodity Market - Gold and silver have reached all-time highs, indicating a shift towards commodity trading amid geopolitical risks and central bank policies [22][23] - The gold-silver ratio suggests that gold is currently outperforming silver, which may indicate positive market sentiment and economic growth [24][25] Future Outlook - There are expectations for potential fiscal policies around housing in 2026, especially in an election year, which could influence market dynamics [17] - The market is currently pricing in two Fed rate cuts, with the first not expected until June, but there is uncertainty about how the market will react if these cuts are backed out [20]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve faces risks of economic recession unless interest rates are lowered further next year, according to Stephen Miran, a member of the Federal Reserve Board [2] - Miran has noted that the necessity for a significant rate cut of 50 basis points has diminished, although he still advocates for a more accommodative policy stance due to rising unemployment [2] - Since September, the Federal Reserve has implemented three rate cuts totaling 75 basis points, and the need for another large cut may be less urgent as the Fed approaches a phase of more precise management of monetary policy [2] Group 2 - This month, the Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by 25 basis points, but there is significant disagreement among officials regarding future policy directions, with most expecting only one more rate cut next year [3] - Concerns about inflation persist, as the current inflation rate remains nearly 1 percentage point above the 2% target, while rising unemployment raises fears of a significantly weakened job market [3]

Photographer: Adam Gray/Bloomberg US Treasuries wrapped up the first weekly gain since the end of November after unexpectedly cool inflation numbers and a jump in the jobless rate cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least twice next year. While yields edged up on Friday, the 10-year Treasury rate declined four basis points in the week, while the policy-sensitive two-year yield fell by a similar amount as markets priced in a more dovish 2026 path. Most Read from Bloomberg ...

Employment Data Analysis - November saw the creation of 64,000 jobs, contrasting with a loss of 105,000 jobs in October [1] - October's job numbers were generally weak across various categories, followed by a rebound in November [1] - The November unemployment rate increased to 564% (unrounded) from 444% in September, indicating a significant rise over two months [2] - The labor force increased by 323,000 over two months, but data on hires and fires is missing [3] Data Reliability Concerns - The Labor Department reported a stronger than normal response on the establishment survey (jobs created) [4] - A weaker than normal response was noted on the household survey for November, impacting the unemployment rate calculation, suggesting a need to consider error margins [5] Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in assessing the current economic state and future trajectory due to incomplete data [4]

I mean, I don't I don't think we have to be in a bubble for the market to say we're going to take a break for a while from the expensive tech stock. I mean, and that has happened multiple times. So, I try to sort of sidestep, you know, the the argument of maybe the riskreward is better elsewhere is not answered by Yeah, but it's not a bad bubble, okay.Because you can still be outside of a bubble or in the bubble in the making or two years away uh and still have the riskreward not look great. We weren't in a ...

Labor Market - Unemployment rate reaches 46%, marking a peak in over four years [1] - The unemployment rate has increased by 50 basis points (bps) since June [1] Monetary Policy Implications - The Federal Reserve (Fed) may be significantly lagging behind in addressing the rising unemployment [1]

Market Overview - U.S. stocks traded mostly lower, with the Dow Jones index falling more than 250 points, down 0.52% to 48,164.83, NASDAQ down 0.37% to 22,971.25, and S&P 500 down 0.56% to 6,778.08 [1] - European shares were lower, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 slipping 0.64%, Spain's IBEX 35 Index down 0.69%, London's FTSE 100 down 0.92%, Germany's DAX 40 down 0.85%, and France's CAC 40 declining 0.40% [5] - Asian markets closed lower, with Japan's Nikkei falling 1.56%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng down 1.54%, China's Shanghai Composite down 1.11%, and India's BSE Sensex down 0.63% [6] Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales were flat for October compared to September, down from a revised 0.1% gain in the previous month and below market estimates of 0.1% growth [7] - The U.S. economy added 64,000 jobs in November, compared to a loss of 105,000 in the previous month and above market estimates of a 50,000 increase [9] - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November from 4.3% in the previous month, marking the highest reading since September 2021 [9] - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.1% month-over-month to $36.86 in November, compared to a 0.4% rise in the previous month [9] - U.S. business inventories increased 0.2% month-over-month in September, in line with market estimates [9] - The S&P Global flash composite PMI declined to 53 in December, the lowest reading in six months, down from 54.2 in November [2][9] Commodity Market - In commodity news, oil traded down 2.9% to $55.17, while gold traded up 0.5% at $4,357.00 [4] Company News - SRx Health Solutions Inc shares surged 92% to $0.59 after announcing an agreement to acquire EMJ Crypto Technologies [8] - Rezolve AI PLC shares rose 34% to $3.12 following preliminary December revenue results [8] - Cementos Pacasmayo SAA shares increased 48% to $10.25 after Holcim signed an agreement to purchase 50.01% of the company's owner [8] - Zynex Inc shares dropped 53% to $0.31 after entering Chapter 11 court-supervised financial restructuring [8] - Lightwave Logic Inc shares fell 19% to $3.05 after announcing the pricing of an 11.67 million share common stock offering [8] - Navan Inc shares decreased 17% to $12.21 after reporting third-quarter results [8]

Labor Market & Economic Growth - The labor market shows weakness with the highest unemployment rate and lowest year-over-year wage growth in four years [2] - Despite weak job growth, the economy is still moving forward, avoiding a recession, but is described as a "sickly tortoise" [3] - The economy is expected to experience weak fourth-quarter GDP growth, potentially around 1% [9] - The economy may grow at 3% in the first half of next year and 1% in the second half, resulting in approximately 15% growth for the year if a recession is avoided [8] - Labor supply is limited, with a shrinking native-born working-age population and near-zero net immigration, making it difficult for the economy to grow beyond 15% of trend rates [7][8] Consumer Spending & Fiscal Stimulus - Consumer spending is expected to increase in the first half of next year due to income tax refunds, with the average refund projected to be $4,000, up from $3,200 this year [4] - The boost in consumer spending from tax refunds is considered temporary ("sugar, not protein") and unsustainable in the second half of the year [6] Investment & Sector Performance - While there's a significant data center boom, other investment spending, such as heavy truck sales and home building, is weak [10][11] - Low oil prices are hindering drilling activity in the energy sector [11]

Employment Data & Economic Outlook - November jobs report indicates employers added 64,000 jobs [1] - The unemployment rate edged up to 46% from 44% [1] - The economy is weaker than desired, based on backward-looking data [3] Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve faces a conundrum regarding cutting rates in light of the job numbers [3] - Persistent inflation, partly due to tariffs, complicates the decision to lower interest rates [4] - Lowering interest rates could exacerbate inflation, while increasing them could worsen unemployment [5]