Chicago Fed President Goulsby on squawkbox this morning defending the validity of BLS data and the shortcomings of relying just on private sector sources. Joining us here at Post9 this morning to talk more about it, Goldman Sachs chief economist John Hotsi is who normally joins us on jobs Friday. A little bit different today.It's a jobs Friday except they're not jobs. Yes. Do you do you feel like you're flying blind or no.He seems to think that um BLS is still the gold standard. Oh, for sure. It's a signifi ...

Following the government shutdown, the Federal Reserve will be flying more blind than usual without key data. This could lead to a mistake in setting interest rates, cutting too much if the job market strong, too little if it's weaker than thought. But there are clues to watch on the state of the economy.One of them is the ADP's private payroll report. It came in surprisingly weak. Last month, the private sector shed 32,000 jobs, marking the biggest decrease since 2023.JP Morgan Mike Feroli says the continu ...

with more on this. What are we going to do, Steve, on Friday at 8:30. >> Maybe get off the data hamster wheel for a little bit.I think take a broader view. The government payroll, Melissa, is still vital, but over a short period of time, there's still ways to figure out what's going on broadly with the jobs market and the economy. ADP volatile monthtomonth.We learned that in spades today, but over the course of a year lines up pretty well with the private sector data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In ...

Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - Each week of a government shutdown shaves off approximately 025 percentage points from the annualized GDP growth rate during that quarter [4] - A three-week shutdown, the longest seen, could potentially be absorbed within the fourth quarter, resulting in a negligible overall impact [5][6] - A prolonged shutdown could lead to a 1 percentage point reduction in fourth-quarter GDP growth [4] Labor Market Data and Analysis - A government shutdown would suspend data releases from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and cease active data collection [1] - The absence of federal data increases the importance of alternative datasets like ADP data for labor market insights [2] - The Department of Labor could reduce its workforce from approximately 13000 to 3000 employees during a shutdown, with only one employee remaining at the Bureau of Labor Statistics [10] - Data collection during the reference week (containing the 12th of the month) could be significantly impacted, potentially leading to choppy labor surveys and data revisions [11][13] - Mass firings could increase the unemployment rate up to 45% [11] Federal Reserve Policy Implications - A government shutdown could hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to make informed decisions due to the lack of official statistics [7] - The Fed relies on data like the core PCE measure and the unemployment rate for communication and policy decisions, which would be unavailable during a shutdown [8]

As a shutdown of the US government could stop economic releases and make for a foggy US economy, and perhaps one that's even a foggy year, which may just make all of our jobs trickier. Fortunately, we've got Stuart Paul with us. He's Bloomberg Economics, US and Canada economist.He joins us here in the studio. They will suspend all operations. That's a quote, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and cease all active data collection activities should the federal government shut down.What does that mean for you ...

If today's politics really turn on the economy, as 81% of Americans who voted for Donald Trump said it did, then the economy might be flashing a red warning light to the president. Right now, 9 months into Donald Trump's second term, the national unemployment rate is 4.3%. 10.5% for young Americans ages 16 to 24 who face what is being called a no firing, no hiring economy. Just 22,000 jobs were added in August, and new government data shows employers created nearly 1 million fewer jobs over the past year th ...

Welcome back. A bipartisan group of former top US economic officials in this country coming together to file a brief to the Supreme Court in support of Fed Governor Lisa Cook. You can see some of them here.The list includes every living Fed chair as well as several former Treasury Secretaries and CEA chairs across both sides of the aisle. One exception would be members of the President Trump's first term like that like his secretary minutian. Our next guest is a signator Jared Bernstein, chair of the Counci ...

Right now though, let's get a little more reaction to this latest economic data with Henry McVey. He's KKR's balance sheet CIO. And Henry, it's been a while since we've seen you.Thanks for coming in. >> It's great to be here. >> Let's talk.I know you're just coming back from Asia and I want to talk about that, but first let's focus on what's happening here in the United States. What did you think of these numbers. Um, better than anticipated on many levels.I >> I think they uh really justify what we've been ...

In the labor market, there has been a marked slowdown in both the supply of and the demand for workers, an unusual and challenging development. In this less dynamic and somewhat softer labor market, the downside risks to employment have risen. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.3% in August, but has remained relatively stable at a low level over the past year.Payroll job gains slowed sharply over summer months as employers added an average of just 29,000 per month over the past three months. The recent pac ...

While the unemployment rate remains low, it has edged up. Job gains have slowed and downside risks to employment have risen. At the same time, inflation has risen recently and remains somewhat elevated.In support of our goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks, today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point. We also decided to continue to reduce our securities holdings. I'll have more to say about monetary policy after briefly r ...