11 July 2025 | 9:40AM CST China Healthcare: Jun 2025 China hospital equipment bidding: Growth on hold as ASP pressure unfolds, less expectation from stimulus in 2H We continue to track the procurement value of the main medical devices in China. Although the June bidding value data maintained a YoY growth rate of 49%, it still came in below our previous expectations due to a 3% MoM decline. We believe the decline was primarily driven by lower unit prices as a result of VBPs - continuing the trend observed in ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Weigao, AK Medical, and AngelAlign, while holding a "Neutral" rating for Jinxin and Tigermed [2][3][13]. Core Insights - The report indicates a cautious optimism regarding the recovery of surgical volumes in 2025, with expectations of manageable impacts from recent regulatory changes and tariff adjustments [1][4]. - The focus is shifting towards internal operational management and shareholder returns, with companies emphasizing cash flow management and reducing capital expenditures [8][11]. Summary by Sections Surgical Volume and Regulatory Environment - Surgical volume is expected to trend positively in 2025, with many companies reporting improved sentiment at the start of the year [4]. - The impact of the Value-Based Pricing (VBP) is seen as manageable, with major players focusing on market share gains [4][7]. Company-Specific Developments - Weigao anticipates a revenue growth of 10-15% year-on-year in FY25, driven by new product ramp-ups [9]. - AK Medical's market share in Tier 1 hospitals has increased significantly, and the company expects continued growth in overseas markets [4][9]. - AngelAlign is focusing on overseas expansion, particularly in Europe, with a projected 50% year-on-year increase in overseas case volumes [9][19]. Financial Guidance and Earnings Revisions - The report revises sales estimates downwards for several companies, with average changes of -1.6% to -2.2% for 2025-2027 and earnings estimates down by -13.3% to -16.7% [1][14]. - Gushengtang expects revenue growth to exceed 25% year-on-year in FY25, while Jinxin did not provide specific revenue guidance due to uncertainties [8][19]. Target Price Changes - Target prices have been adjusted for several companies, with Hygeia's target price set at HK$27.60, AngelAlign at HK$76.20, and Gushengtang at HK$46.00 [13][17][18].