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Economic Growth - The U.S. economy rebounded strongly in Q2 2025 with GDP growing at an annualized rate of 3%, surpassing the forecast of 2.6% by Bloomberg economists [1] - This rebound followed a contraction of 0.5% in Q1, primarily due to a surge in imports ahead of tariff measures, which negatively impacted GDP calculations [2] Underlying Economic Indicators - Sales to private domestic purchasers increased by only 1.2% in Q2, down from 1.9% in Q1, indicating the weakest growth pace since 2022 [3] - The Q2 data reflects the first full quarter under President Trump's expanded tariff policy, with ongoing monitoring of its impact on growth [4] Market Reactions - Initial fears of a recession due to tariff announcements have eased as stronger-than-expected data emerged, with the probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 dropping to 17% from a peak of 66% [5] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25% to 4.5% for the fifth consecutive meeting, reflecting internal divisions regarding the impact of tariffs [6] Investment Opportunities - The current economic conditions and the Fed's rate-hold stance create opportunities for value ETF investing, as a decent growth rate supports corporate earnings [7] - Investors are likely to rotate from high-growth stocks to undervalued, lower-risk companies as signs of economic cooling emerge [8] Value Stocks Performance - Value stocks, particularly in financials, are more sensitive to interest rate changes, and stable rates can enhance earnings from lending activities [9] - Several value ETFs, including Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) and Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU), have shown positive performance recently, with VTV adding 1% and XLU gaining 4.6% [10][11]