Brett Ashcroft Green, CFP® is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™. His family also operates a real estate brokerage in Nevada, one of the most tax-advantaged jurisdictions in the United States for retiring, estate planning, and establishing trusts. He holds an MBA and has worked with high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth individuals globally, specializing in private credit and commercial real estate mezzanine financing as a business director at a large family office. Brett is fluent in Mandarin Chinese in both ...

By Adam Grossman, CFA US Still Strongest; Europe and Japan are Catching Up With over 90% of S&P companies now having reported for the third quarter, we feel we have enough data to perform our quarterly earnings season 'checkup'. In order to complete this checkup, we will use our three 'earnings principles': We are watching this earnings season for three major themes: Source: LSEG Datastream, RiverFront. Data weekly as of Nov 28, 2025. Chart shown for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no indica ...

Summary of Conference Call on China Consumer Staples Industry Overview - The consumer staples sector in China is experiencing weak demand trends from Q2 to Q3, influenced by policy and weather factors, leading to a wider divergence between market leaders and laggards [1][2] - The spirits sector has seen a valuation increase of 24% in Q3 to date, compared to a 16% increase in the A-share Liquor index and a 13% increase in the MSCI China Index, driven by improved market sentiment and expectations of stimulus policies [1] Key Insights Demand Trends - Overall demand remains weak, particularly in gifting categories as noted by dairy and spirits companies [1] - Beer, spirits, and liquid milk are under pressure, while beverages, snacks, and pet foods show mixed performance with some companies experiencing growth due to strong product cycles and omnichannel strategies [2] Pricing and Market Dynamics - Pricing remains muted across the sector, with spirits and beer companies focusing on sub-premium segments [2] - The August Foods Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 4.3% year-over-year, indicating potential challenges in pricing strategies [1] Company Performance and Strategies - Companies like Haitian and Nongfu are gaining market share, while others like Jonjee are struggling [9] - CR Beer reported growth in premium and sub-premium volumes, while maintaining a disciplined approach to pricing and promotions [47] - The spirits sector is seeing a shift towards mid-end and mass-market products to counteract upper-mid-end softness [43] Future Outlook - The sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in retail demand, particularly in traditional categories like beer and dairy, with potential for value stock rotation in early 2026 [8] - Companies are expected to enhance shareholder returns and maintain dividend payouts, with a focus on operational efficiency and cost management [8] Sector Preferences - Preference remains for beverages due to secular growth, followed by pet foods and dairy, with a positive outlook for beer in the medium term [13] - Stock recommendations include Eastroc, Gambol, and China Pet Foods for strong product cycles, and CR Beer and Tsingtao for their dividend yields and valuations [13] Additional Observations - The competitive landscape is evolving, with top players consolidating market share amid weak demand, leading to a valuation premium for leading brands [9] - The pet food sector is benefiting from a shift towards higher-value segments, with companies focusing on premiumization and operational efficiencies [48] - Snacks are seeing a channel shift towards discounters and mom-pop stores, with a focus on large SKU strategies and product mix upgrades [49] Key Watch Factors - Policy directions post the Fourth Plenum and local catering incentives are critical to monitor, especially their impact on banquet traffic [11] - The performance of mid-end and mass SKUs in spirits and the overall margin discipline across the sector will be crucial as cost pressures moderate [12]

Market Sentiment and Value Stocks - Current market sentiment is characterized by extreme optimism, leading investors to seek value and potential upside opportunities [1] - Value stocks have significantly underperformed growth stocks, with the widest margin in the past decade, indicating a potential "catch-up" play [2] Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - Johnson & Johnson's stock is trading at $156.91, close to its 52-week high, but its forward P/E ratio of 14.9x is below the historical average of 19.5x, suggesting room for a rally [3] - Assenagon Asset Management increased its holdings in Johnson & Johnson by 160%, now holding $635.3 million worth of the stock, indicating bullish sentiment [4] - Analysts, including Shagun Singh from the Royal Bank of Canada, have set a price target of $181 per share, suggesting a potential upside of 16% [5] Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) - Berkshire Hathaway's stock is priced at $476.73, with a P/E ratio of 12.71, indicating it is undervalued compared to the financial sector's average P/B ratio of 2.3x [6][8] - The stock has underperformed the S&P 500 by 26% over the past quarter, presenting a significant discount opportunity for investors [7] - Analyst Kein Heal has a price target of $575 per share, indicating a potential rise of 21% from current prices [9] Intel (INTC) - Intel's stock is currently at $23.30, trading at 63% of its 52-week high, and Assenagon increased its stake by 86.4% to $508.6 million [11] - The U.S. government's focus on reshoring semiconductor supply chains positions Intel favorably for increased demand and pricing [12] - Recent purchases of Intel stock by U.S. Congress members signal positive sentiment towards the company [13]