Group 1 - Private sector job creation in January was only 22,000, significantly below economists' expectations of 48,000 jobs [1] - The previous month's job gain was revised down from 41,000 to 37,000 [1] - In 2025, private employers added 398,000 jobs, a decrease from 771,000 in 2024, indicating a continuous slowdown in job creation over the past three years [2] Group 2 - Education and health services led job creation in December with an addition of 74,000 positions, followed by financial activities with 14,000 and construction with 9,000 [2] - Leisure and hospitality, trade, transportation, and utilities each added 4,000 jobs, while hiring in natural resources and mining remained flat [3] - Professional and business services experienced a loss of 57,000 jobs, with other services and manufacturing losing 13,000 and 8,000 jobs respectively [3] Group 3 - Wage growth in December remained stable, with pay for those staying in their roles increasing by 4.5% year-over-year, while pay gains for job changers slightly decreased to 6.4% from 6.6% [4]

Core Insights - Urban demand in India is showing signs of recovery after nearly two years of rural consumption leading the way, driven by improving corporate salary growth, selective hiring, and fiscal support through tax and GST cuts [1][3][8] Urban Consumption - Urban households are facing significant cost pressures, with inflation affecting essential expenses such as school fees, rent, and utilities, which have risen sharply [2] - Urban consumption began to improve in Q3 FY26, supported by GST cuts and an increase in urban wage growth, which rose to 7% in H1 FY26 from 3% in Q4 FY25 [3][4] - Salary growth among large listed companies improved to approximately 6.4% in the first half of FY26, indicating a positive shift in momentum for urban consumption [4] - Job creation in urban areas is improving, particularly at mid and senior levels, although entry-level hiring remains challenging due to AI adoption [5] Rural Consumption - Rural demand, which previously led the recovery, is facing potential moderation due to falling crop prices below MSP levels, impacting farm incomes [6][8] - Despite these risks, rural consumption has remained strong, with rural wage growth picking up and high-frequency indicators showing resilience [6][7] - Agriculture accounts for about 40-45% of total rural income, with allied sectors like construction and services expected to perform well [7] Overall Economic Outlook - Economists agree that India's consumption recovery is entering a new phase, with urban demand showing early signs of revival while rural consumption remains resilient but faces risks from soft crop prices [8]

Group 1 - Private sector added 41,000 jobs in December, below economists' estimates of 47,000 jobs [1] - Previous month's payrolls revised to a loss of 29,000 from an initial loss of 32,000 [1] - Small establishments showed positive hiring at year-end, while large employers reduced hiring [1] Group 2 - Education and health services led job creation with 39,000 positions added in December [2] - Leisure and hospitality added 24,000 positions, while trade, transportation, and utilities added 11,000 [2] - Professional and business services lost 29,000 jobs, with information and manufacturing losing 12,000 and 5,000 positions respectively [2] Group 3 - Large businesses (500 or more employees) added 2,000 jobs, while businesses with 50 to 499 employees added 34,000 [3] - Establishments with fewer than 50 employees added 9,000 jobs [3] - Wage growth remained stable, with pay for those staying in their roles increasing by 4.4% year-over-year [3]

Core Insights - Employers are expected to remain cautious about major hiring, leading to limited pay increases in the upcoming year [1][2] Employment Trends - Major forecasts indicate a continuation of recent trends in the job market, with hiring slowing significantly compared to previous years [2] - Employers are hesitant to hire extensively while also avoiding mass layoffs due to economic uncertainty from unpredictable tariff policies [2] Wage Growth - U.S. employers plan to implement average raises of 3.3% in 2026, slightly lower than the previous year [3][9] - Wage growth is anticipated to be moderate, reflecting a cooling labor market, with job openings stabilizing and a slight rise in unemployment [4][9] - Wage growth has decreased over the past year, with a reported increase of 2.5% in September compared to 3.4% in January [5][6] Economic Implications - The job market is expected to remain subdued, with forecasts suggesting that wage increases will not match the significant raises seen in 2022 [4] - Some economists believe that the slowdown in the job market may exert downward pressure on wages, influencing the Federal Reserve's decisions on borrowing costs [6] Sector-Specific Insights - There is potential for wage increases in sectors like construction, which have been impacted by immigration policies, as these areas may experience tighter labor conditions [7][9] - A modest improvement in demand could stabilize and tighten the labor market, particularly in sectors affected by labor supply issues [8]

Britain’s jobs market is pulling in two directions: unemployment is rising, yet wage growth is barely slowing at all https://t.co/2dIx1cb900 ...

Labor Market Overview - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, the highest since September 2021, up from 4.4% in September [1] - US employers added 64,000 jobs in November, exceeding expectations of a 50,000 increase [1][4] - Payroll employment dropped by 105,000 in October, primarily due to federal layoffs, with the federal government losing 168,000 jobs since September [2] Sector Performance - Employment increased in the health care and construction sectors, adding 46,000 and 28,000 jobs respectively [3] - Other sectors, such as manufacturing and transportation and warehousing, experienced job losses [3] Wage and Employment Trends - Wage growth slowed to 3.5% in November, the slowest pace since before the pandemic [6] - The number of Americans unemployed for more than six months rose to 1.9 million in November, up from 1.7 million the previous year [6] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the unemployment rate, which has risen from 4% in January [5] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the jobs numbers may be distorted and should be viewed with skepticism [5]

The latest UK jobs data reveals a weaker employment market with wage growth gradually cooling, though still higher than expected. It's still not at all clear whether this is just "normalising", or the prelude to larger falls. https://t.co/6QOUc1v4NS ...

All right, let's start off. How much weight is actually on this jobs report when we know there's going to be other key inflation reports coming up later this week. Another jobs report before the Fed meets again and makes this decision.How much weight are you putting on this. >> Yeah, I think it is an important one. Um, but there is going to be some weird dynamics in the data that we're getting this week.We know that maybe errors around this data are a bit bigger than usual just because of delayed collection ...

UK unemployment climbed to its highest level in almost five years and wage growth eased https://t.co/q8ielEK0jA ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley suggests that despite some negative economic signals, the economy is in an "early cycle" environment with potential for growth ahead [1][3]. Economic Indicators - ADP private payrolls were negative in November, and layoffs are at the highest levels in two decades, indicating some economic stress [1]. - The unemployment rate is rising, but Morgan Stanley believes the worst is already behind us [1]. Earnings Growth - There has been a significant rebound in earnings revisions, with the S&P 500 earnings revisions breadth improving from negative 25% in April to positive 15% [4]. - This rebound is typically seen in early cycle environments, suggesting improving business confidence [4]. Wage Growth and Profit Margins - Wage growth has slowed to a three-month moving average of 4.1% year-over-year, down from 6.7% in July 2022, providing room for profit margins to expand [4]. - Such a decline in wage growth is often observed during recessionary periods [4]. Consumer Demand - Consumer demand is expected to accelerate, as companies are showing higher pricing power, allowing them to increase prices without significantly impacting demand [5]. Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is cutting rates to stimulate economic activity, with expectations of two additional cuts in 2026 [6]. - Moderate weakness in the labor market is anticipated to continue, which will support these rate cuts without leading to a recession [6]. Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 14% rise in the S&P 500 to 7,800 by 2026, indicating a bullish outlook for the stock market [7]. Investment Recommendations - The bank recommends an "overweight" position on consumer discretionary stocks, which are expected to perform well during economic recoveries [8]. - This sector includes companies benefiting from consumer spending on non-essentials, such as apparel and hospitality [8].