Despite fears that foreign investors would dump U.S. assets, stock inflows have remained strong.But the dollar has still tanked 8% over the past year, and foreign purchases of U.S. Treasuries have slowed sharply. This has given rise to a new narrative called the “hedge America” trade.Hedging Replaces SellingWhen Danish pension fund Akademiker Pension dumped $100 million in U.S. Treasurys in January, markets braced for contagion. But CIO Anders Schelde called it “daily business” driven by deficit concerns, n ...

Bitcoin (BTC) has often been referred to as "digital gold" because of its scarcity and decentralized nature. Like gold, Bitcoin cannot be arbitrarily created and its supply is capped at 21 million coins. This makes it resistant to inflation and government manipulation. It was during the 2013 bull run and especially after the 2020 macroeconomic crisis that the term became more prominent. Institutional investors started treating Bitcoin as a hedge against monetary debasement. However, for Stifel's Barry B ...

Bitcoin is no longer beating the big asset classes. Once pitched as “digital gold” and a higher-octane counterpart to the Nasdaq and S&P 500, the world’s largest cryptocurrency now lags all three over the past five years after its recent ferocious rout. Most Read from Bloomberg Since early 2021, Bitcoin has returned roughly 73% — trailing gold at 164%, the Nasdaq 100 at 82% and the S&P 500 at 75%, and the Nasdaq 100 at 82%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. On Thursday, Bitcoin was down about 7% ...

Almost half a trillion dollars has been wiped off cryptocurrencies in less than a week as a selloff led by Bitcoin accelerated. Total crypto market value has slumped by $467.6 billion since Jan. 29, according to CoinGecko data. Bitcoin on Tuesday tumbled to its lowest level since US President Donald Trump won re-election in early November 2024 and ushered in a more crypto-friendly administration. Most Read from Bloomberg The original cryptocurrency, which hit a 15-month low of $72,877 in the US, regain ...

Group 1: Core Insights - Ray Dalio warns that the U.S. is on the brink of transitioning from Stage 5 (pre-breakdown) to Stage 6 (systemic collapse) due to unsustainable debt and financial conditions [1][3] - Bitcoin is currently trading defensively at $88,000, trapped in a 60-day range due to record institutional selling pressure from American counterparties [1][2] - Traditional safe havens like gold and silver are reaching all-time highs, indicating a shift in investor sentiment away from Bitcoin [4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Dalio's analysis highlights that bankrupt government finances and wealth gaps are reliable indicators of civil unrest, which he believes characterize the current American reality [2][3] - Bitcoin remains stuck between $85,000 and $94,000, with U.S. spot ETF products experiencing negative capital flows, suggesting bearish momentum driven by domestic institutions [2][6] - The persistent discount in the Coinbase premium indicates a lack of safe-haven flows into Bitcoin amid elevated macroeconomic uncertainty [5]

Core Viewpoint - Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat and Bitmine, predicts Bitcoin's price will surge to $250,000 this year, reaching a new all-time high, emphasizing that long-term adoption of crypto is stronger than gold despite most investors having little or no exposure to gold [1][7]. Bitcoin Price Outlook - The future price of Bitcoin is contingent on the market overcoming a significant crypto deleveraging event that previously disrupted its correlation with gold [3]. - Lee describes Bitcoin as "digital gold," but notes that the number of investors who accept this view is still smaller than the gold investor base, indicating that more people own gold than crypto [3]. Market Vulnerability - The crypto markets are susceptible to disruptions driven by leverage, with periodic deleveraging events that impair market makers, who function as the central bank of crypto [4]. Gold's Role in Investment - Lee attributes gold's strong performance to geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of easier global monetary policy, while arguing that most investors remain under-allocated in gold [4]. - He suggests that gold should be considered less as a commodity and more as an alternative currency, stating that it does not make sense to view it strictly as a commodity metal [5]. Investment Strategy - Lee advises against emotional reactions to market pullbacks, cautioning that attempts to time the market can negatively impact long-term returns [2][6]. - He emphasizes the importance of maintaining long-term investment discipline, stating that trying to time the market makes investors adversaries to their future performance [6].

Key Points In 2025, Bitcoin is down 7%, while gold is up 70%. Historically, Bitcoin has outperformed gold on an annual basis. While the "digital gold" investment thesis is now very much in question, Bitcoin has significantly higher upside potential than gold over the long haul. 10 stocks we like better than Bitcoin › It's been a rough year for Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC). It's now down 7% for the year, and looks unlikely to reclaim the $100,000 price level before 2026. Making it even more painful for ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin is currently facing challenges, down over 7% for the year, trading at $87,000, but is predicted to rise by 75% to $150,000 by 2026 [1] Historical Performance - A 75% gain is not unprecedented for Bitcoin, which has historically shown strong performance, including a 36% gain in its worst bull market year (2015) and triple-digit percentage returns in seven years since 2012 [2] Future Predictions - The year 2026 may mirror 2019, when Bitcoin surged by 95% following a significant drop in 2018, driven by global economic uncertainty and increased institutional investor interest [3] Institutional Investment - Institutional investors are increasing their Bitcoin exposure through new spot Bitcoin ETFs, while global economic uncertainty, particularly regarding tariffs and U.S. macroeconomic conditions, is a prevailing concern for investors [4] Bitcoin vs. Gold - For Bitcoin to regain traction as "digital gold," investor confidence in this narrative must be restored, as Bitcoin is currently down 7% while gold has increased by 73% [5][6] Price Recovery Potential - Despite dropping below $100,000, Bitcoin has the potential to rebound and reach $150,000 in 2026, with historical trends suggesting a recovery from down years [7] Market Dynamics - Bitcoin was once expected to follow the "debasement trade" trend, moving alongside precious metals like gold, but this correlation has not materialized in the current market [8]

Core Insights - Bitcoin is increasingly being adopted by institutional investors and corporations, with at least 11 companies converting over $1 billion into Bitcoin on their balance sheets, including Tesla and Strategy [1][8] - The volatility of Bitcoin is decreasing, with recent drawdowns limited to 30%, indicating a maturation of the asset class [3] - The structure of the Bitcoin market has fundamentally changed, with ETFs and corporate treasuries absorbing more Bitcoin than mined, suggesting a shift from retail investors to institutional capital [4][9] Group 1: Institutional Adoption - Deep-pocketed investors are building significant Bitcoin positions, led by Strategy with 671,268 coins valued at approximately $58.9 billion [2] - About 7% of Bitcoins in circulation are held in ETF portfolios, a ratio expected to increase as major investment firms begin to recommend Bitcoin funds [10] - Traditional banks are currently absent among the largest Bitcoin holders, but the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs may change this landscape by 2026 [9] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Bitcoin's annual issuance is now below 1%, which is less than gold's inflation rate, indicating that future halvings will have a diminished impact on price [5] - The previous four-year halving cycle is losing its significance as institutional buyers and ETFs dominate the market [9][12] - The market dynamics have shifted, making past technical analysis less relevant in predicting Bitcoin's price movements [6][12] Group 3: Investment Perspective - A portfolio allocation of 5% to 10% in Bitcoin is considered reasonable for long-term investors who can handle volatility [7] - Bitcoin is viewed as a potential hedge against macroeconomic uncertainties, with its market value competing against gold's $31 trillion total market value [11] - Despite its volatility, Bitcoin is seen as a long-term investment opportunity, with expectations of organic demand growth while supply remains stable [17]

Core Insights - Bitcoin is experiencing a lack of momentum, trading around $87,370 within a narrow range of $85,000 to $90,000, indicating a year-end standstill for the cryptocurrency [1] - The cryptocurrency has declined approximately 30% since a significant selloff in October, marking its worst quarterly performance since Q2 2022 [2] - The market is struggling to recover post-October crash, with thin trading volumes and diminished retail speculation, while US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have become net sellers in Q4 [3] Market Comparison - In contrast to Bitcoin, US stocks are experiencing a "Santa rally," with the S&P 500 reaching record highs, benefiting retail investors who remained invested in technology and momentum stocks [4] - Gold has reached new all-time highs near $4,500 per ounce, achieving over 70% gains this year, positioning it as a strong hedge against uncertainty and a reliable store of value [5] Bitcoin's Position - Bitcoin has failed to join the year-end rally, remaining down more than 7% for the year, despite being marketed as "digital gold" [6] - The cryptocurrency's inability to attract defensive capital flows, unlike gold, highlights its sidelined status in the current market environment [6] - Technically, Bitcoin has fallen below its 365-day moving average of approximately $102,000, which had previously served as key support, raising concerns about a potential deeper pullback [7]