Stocks struggled for direction at Tuesday’s open as traders assess whether the US economy growing at its fastest pace in two years would delay or stall additional Federal Reserve interest rate cuts https://t.co/YHtUYfQji6 ...

Economic Outlook - The speaker acknowledges recessions are inevitable, and the Fed's role is to mitigate them [1] - The speaker doesn't foresee a recession in the near term, partly because of policy rate adjustments [2] - Adjusting policy rates downward is crucial to counter the risk of rising recessions [3] Labor Market Analysis - The rise in the unemployment rate is a concern, as it has historically preceded recessions [1][2] - The speaker is assessing the risk of a near-term recession based on the labor market [2] Monetary Policy - Policy needs to adjust downward to reflect the downward shift in the neutral rate [3] - Continuing to adjust interest rates is important to prevent recession [3] Economic Shocks - Various shocks, including changes to population growth rate due to border policy changes, have pushed the neutral rate down [3]

Labor Market & Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley suggests the labor market may have already bottomed, with any economic slowdown being sector-specific [1] - The firm believes a rolling recession has been occurring, with each sector experiencing its own recession due to post-COVID distortions [2] - Data indicates the rate of change on payrolls and layoffs peaked/bottomed in April, coinciding with the market bottom [2] Federal Reserve Policy - A non-weak labor market could give the Federal Reserve more room to cut rates [4] - The Fed's data is lagged, and revisions show a significant labor recovery [5] - Rate cuts are needed for the financially leveraged parts of the economy, such as housing and consumer goods [8] - The risk of the Fed cutting rates into a good earnings cycle is asset inflation [8] Inflation & Wage Growth - Accelerating inflation is generally good for company earnings, especially for lagging companies, if the Fed isn't raising rates [8] - The current administration aims to address affordability through wage gains, with wage growth needing to outpace inflation [9][10] - Fiscal policy changes are intended to reduce consumption and increase investment, potentially leading to better productivity [11] - Reconfiguring the economy through fiscal policy should lead to better productivity [11] Market Performance & Strategy - Morgan Stanley anticipates 17% earnings growth for the S&P [14] - The firm projects the S&P 500 could reach 7,800, pricing it off of 2027 estimates [14] - A key risk to this strategy is inflation returning to a level that forces the Fed to react by raising rates [15]

The price of silver rose to an all-time high on Monday, boosted by tight supply and expectations for future interest rate cuts. https://t.co/Ax2V3g8nyb ...

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Fed Governor Stephen Miran says the US economy calls for large interest rate cuts. ...

I talked with @jvisserlabs about the Fed’s interest rate cuts, the U.S.–China trade dynamic, and what they signal for global markets.We also dive into Bitcoin, AI, and tokenized assets — explaining how these forces, alongside Tesla’s innovations, are shaping the next major investment cycle.Enjoy!YouTube: https://t.co/52I5EkLD0kApple: https://t.co/UJfxIrPuasTIMESTAMPS:0:00 - Intro1:14 - Fed rate cut and market reaction3:40 - US - China trade agreement and impact7:00 - How to navigate government shutdown, lab ...

Stocks and bitcoin are going higher off the back of interest rate cuts and a US-China trade deal.Game on! https://t.co/35rEYnPeYW ...

Interest Rate Outlook - The bond market previously indicated that cutting interest rates was a mistake [1] - The market is currently pricing in two more interest rate cuts for the remainder of the year [1] - Future interest rate cut decisions will depend on the composition of the committee at that time [3] Economic Projections - Current market expectations align with the median projection from the committee's last summary of economic projections [2] - There is less disagreement within the committee regarding interest rate cuts for the next year compared to this year [3]

Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran suggests that two more interest rate cuts this year are realistic [1]

Monetary Policy - Polish policymaker Cezary Kochalski aims to temper market expectations for future interest rate cuts [1] - This week's interest rate reduction significantly curtails the potential for further easing in 2025 [1]