The underlying tenor of the data here doesn't suggest that it's a lock that you're going to get three rate cuts before the end of the year. But the deeper you dig here, it doesn't look so good. It looks to me like service sector inflation is not just sticky, but it's going to be stubborn.And the Fed's got a lot of heavy lifting to do in front of it to get back to 2% anytime over the next couple of years. Are there risks in the Fed cutting into this inflationary environment. There absolutely are risks.The Fe ...

Core Insights - The cannabis sector is experiencing a rally due to potential regulatory changes, with bipartisan support for descheduling cannabis, which could present investment opportunities [4][6][59] - The AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) is highlighted as a significant investment vehicle, with approximately $840 million in assets under management, providing concentrated exposure to the US cannabis market [6][12] - The quant analysis indicates that MSOS has shown excellent momentum and liquidity, recently shifting from a sell to a buy rating due to positive market sentiment surrounding cannabis legalization [12][16] ETF Analysis - MSOS is characterized as an actively managed ETF, which cannot directly own many US cannabis stocks due to federal regulations, instead utilizing investment swaps to achieve similar financial results [21][22] - The ETF's evaluation metrics include momentum, expenses, risk, and liquidity, with momentum being a strong predictive factor for buy/sell signals [8][10][25] - The quant score for MSOS currently stands at 4.35, with thresholds determining the transition from buy to hold or sell ratings based on various performance metrics [25] Company Insights - Verano Holdings (OTCQX:VRNOF) is identified as a strong buy, with a market cap of approximately $500 million, showing positive momentum and strong valuation metrics despite the overall sector's challenges [27][30] - Vext Science (OTCQX:VEXTF) is another notable company, with a market cap of around $60 million, demonstrating significant profitability and growth metrics, making it an attractive investment option [35][36] - Green Thumb Industries (OTCQX:GTBIF) is recognized for its strong balance sheet but faces challenges in growth metrics, indicating a potential long-term investment rather than an immediate buy [47][50] Market Context - The cannabis industry is still in a nascent stage, with significant regulatory uncertainty impacting growth and profitability across many companies [28][39] - Canadian cannabis companies, such as Tilray (TLRY) and SNDL, are noted for their more mature market position, providing a less risky investment alternative compared to US-based companies [39][42] - The overall sentiment in the cannabis sector is influenced by political developments and potential legislative changes, which could significantly impact investment strategies [59][60]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The cannabis sector is experiencing a rally due to proposed regulatory changes and potential descheduling of cannabis, which has garnered bipartisan support [4][6][59] - The AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) is highlighted as a significant investment vehicle with approximately $840 million in assets under management, providing concentrated exposure to the US cannabis market [6][12] - The cannabis industry is characterized by high volatility and regulatory uncertainty, presenting both risks and potential upside for investors [7][10][20] Group 2: ETF Analysis - MSOS has shown excellent momentum and decent liquidity, which has contributed to its recent upgrade from a sell to a buy rating [10][12] - The quant evaluation of ETFs includes metrics such as momentum, expenses, risk, and liquidity, which are crucial for assessing investment opportunities [8][25] - The ETF's structure involves investment swaps to comply with federal regulations, allowing it to gain exposure to US cannabis companies indirectly [21][22] Group 3: Company Insights - Verano Holdings (OTCQX:VRNOF) is identified as a strong buy with a market cap of around $500 million, showing promising growth and profitability metrics despite the overall sector's challenges [27][30] - Vext Science (OTCQX:VEXTF) is another notable company with a market cap of approximately $60 million, demonstrating strong profitability and growth potential [35][36] - Green Thumb (OTCQX:GTBIF) is recognized for its strong balance sheet but faces challenges in growth and earnings revisions, leading to a hold rating [47][50] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The cannabis sector is viewed as speculative, with investors advised to approach it cautiously, recognizing the potential for both high rewards and significant risks [14][20] - The ongoing political discussions and potential legislative changes are expected to influence market sentiment and investment strategies in the cannabis industry [18][59] - Canadian cannabis companies, such as Tilray (TLRY) and SNDL, are noted for their more mature market presence, offering a different risk profile compared to US-based companies [38][39]

There is a huge amounts of news flow this morning, Mark, but let's start by looking ahead to one of the big data points of the day. We're going to be looking at inflation in the form of PII. Now, you do think this is a data point that matters.Give us what you're watching for. Yeah. Good morning, Ana.Normally API gets released after CPI and largely gets dismissed. CPI is the more important component. And since P.I. comes after it, it's kind of, well, we've already got the bigger signal. But this is one of th ...

Inflation & Monetary Policy - The market is anticipating the release of PII data as a potential directional signal for the more significant CPI data, which will influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting [2][3] - The market believes the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting will likely be dovish, providing support for both stocks and bonds [5][8] - The market expects any inflation-related news to only cause a short-term shock, with focus quickly returning to the Federal Reserve's dovish stance [5] Geopolitical Risk - The market is currently dismissing news of a Russian drone incursion into Poland, with minimal impact on market sentiment [6][7] - Despite negative geopolitical news from Europe, the overall backdrop remains supportive for stocks due to positive earnings and expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve [8] Stock Market & Administration Influence - The market believes the influence of the US administration on the stock market is less immediate than commonly perceived, requiring a significant drawdown before intervention [10][11]

Market Overview - New home sales in June came in at 627,000 seasonally adjusted annualized units, below the expected 650,000 [1] - June's figure is only slightly above the seven-month low of 623,000 from the previous month, representing an increase of approximately 05% [1] - The spring shopping season was weak, leading to building inventory in new homes [2] - Weakness is observed in existing home sales as well [2] Interest Rates and Fed Policy - Interest rates remain persistently high [2] - There are no guarantees regarding the tenure even if the Fed lowers rates [2] - The twos 10 spread has been hovering around 50 basis points, with little movement expected due to the upcoming Fed meeting [3]

Market Trend & Outlook - Piper Sandler's technical analysis indicates the market trend is still higher, targeting 6,600 for the year-end objective [4][5] - The market is making new highs despite some negative sentiment and down AI numbers, suggesting a "hated market" [5][6] - The S&P 500 has broken out to all-time new highs, contrasting with previous concerns of a potential breakdown to 2,000 levels [3] Valuation & Market Structure - Valuations matter, but the market has been shrinking with 20%-25% fewer stocks due to share buybacks [7] - The pool of available equity has decreased from 8,000 to about 3,800, while the amount of capital has increased [9] - Historical price-to-earnings ratios may not be as relevant due to the shrinking market [8] Cyclical Stocks & Housing Market - Cyclical stocks, including homebuilders like Horton (better-than-expected results), LAR, BLD, and BLDR, are showing constructive patterns and reversing downtrends [11][12] - Housing numbers are good, suggesting a stronger consumer environment than people are thinking [10][12] Commodity & Industrial Signals - Copper is breaking out to an all-time new high, signaling a healthy economy and a meaningful pickup in the industrials [12][13]