Trafigura expects to load its first vessel for exports of Venezuelan oil to the United States next week, the commodities trading house's Chief Executive Richard Holtum told U.S. President Donald Trump... ...

Investors trading commodities, such as oil, have been in high demand.Jeri Clausing/AP Hedge funds that trade commodities struggled in 2025. Big-name managers with exposure to energy or agriculture trades, such as Citadel, trailed peers. However, hedge funds are still flocking to the space, seeking to diversify from stock and fixed-income trades. All strategies mix good days and bumper years with bad days and market-lagging returns. For commodities traders in 2025, it was more of the latter. Conf ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the macroeconomic outlook, focusing on global rates, commodities, currencies, and emerging markets, with insights from J.P. Morgan Securities. Core Insights and Arguments US Rates - Hawkish developments across developed market (DM) central banks have led to underperformance in the intermediate sector, aligning with a forecast for modestly higher yields in 2026 as easing cycles wind down [3][14] - The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to ease rates in January 2026, with the effective funds rate projected to be 3.40% by mid-2026 [11][12] - Treasury yields are forecasted to reach 3.60% for 2-year and 4.25% for 10-year by mid-2026, with slight increases expected by year-end [9][11] International Rates - DM rates have generally sold off due to a hawkish shift in central bank tones and strong data momentum, leading to a lightening of risk in portfolios [4][39] - The Fed's recent actions have not met more hawkish market expectations, contributing to a bearish outlook for the USD [6][80] Commodities - Cocoa's re-inclusion in the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is expected to drive significant buying, accounting for 22% of total open interest, overshadowing more modest buying in other commodities like corn and wheat [6] - Natural gas storage withdrawals in North West Europe (NWE) have exceeded forecasts, despite weaker demand trends [6] Currencies - The USD is under pressure due to a dovish Fed stance compared to hawkish developments in other G10 countries [75][79] - Event risks are elevated with upcoming US payroll releases, and a bearish outlook for the USD is contingent on data performance [79][80] Emerging Markets - The outlook for emerging markets (EM) in 2026 is positive, with lower macro volatility expected to support local markets. The recommendation is to stay overweight (OW) on EM FX and rates [6][11] - Growth and inflation are projected to remain stable, with limited central bank easing anticipated [6] Additional Important Insights - The Fed's policy path is now more aligned with J.P. Morgan's forecasts, indicating limited scope for further bearish impulses in the near term [14] - A significant funding gap is expected to emerge in 2027, with coupon size increases anticipated starting in November 2026 [22] - The demand for Treasuries is expected to remain stable, with mutual funds and ETFs likely absorbing 50% of net T-bill supply [32] - The anticipated cuts from the Fed and other central banks are expected to create a more favorable environment for high-yield currencies [68] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the macroeconomic landscape and its implications for various asset classes.

The economy expanded by an impressive 4.3% in the third quarter. The data support Wall Street's "run-it-hot" thesis heading into 2026. The scenario involves robust economic growth and above-target inflation. Investors just got a blockbuster GDP print for the third quarter. The US economy grew 4.3%, much more than expected, while consumer spending increased 3.5%. Stocks dipped on the news, as odds of a rate cut for both the January and March Fed meetings dwindled. Importantly, though, the report ...

The Hecht Commodity Report is one of the most comprehensive commodities reports available today from a top-ranked author in commodities, forex, and precious metals. My weekly report covers the market movements of over 29 different commodities and provides bullish, bearish, and neutral calls, directional trading recommendations, and actionable ideas for traders and investors.The U.S. Federal Reserve cut the short-term Fed Funds Rate by 1% in 2024 and another 50 basis points in 2025. With the employment marke ...

Financial Performance - Trafigura Group reported a strong year for both its oil and metals divisions [1] Employee Compensation - Trafigura Group boosted payouts to staff [1]

Financial Performance - Trafigura Group's oil and metals divisions experienced a "strong" year [1] - The company maintained resilient profit levels [1] - Staff payouts were boosted [1]

Financial Performance - Trafigura's oil and metals divisions experienced a "strong" year [1] - The company maintained resilient profit levels [1] Employee Compensation - Trafigura increased payouts to staff [1]

Group 1 - The Hecht Commodity Report is a comprehensive source for commodities analysis, covering market movements of over 29 different commodities and providing various trading recommendations [1][2] - The AdvisorShares Pure Cannabis ETF (YOLO) is highlighted as one of the most liquid cannabis ETFs, trading at $2.93 per share with nearly $38 million in assets under management as of December 2 [2] Group 2 - The report includes bullish, bearish, and neutral calls, along with actionable ideas for traders and investors [1][2]

Global Markets Strategy November 24th, 2025 Global Macro Outlook and Strategy Global Rates, Commodities, Currencies and Emerging Markets Luis Oganes AC (44-20) 7742-1420 luis.oganes@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures. {[{B01v-d4joWPbpSPNcwGh7enRDcx_XYd872O4Uor3Vcsp4l33-sDPjK3f0Kx6YvaA0ymmNbAAwvGb8H0v}]} Overall summary US Rates Recent Fed speak has turned more cautious on further easing, and following the Septemb ...