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FMCG Forecast | Pressure Continues on FMCG's Growth Rate in 2026
凯度消费者指数· 2025-10-16 03:50
Core Insights - The FMCG market in China is expected to experience a period of adjustment, with an estimated annual sales growth of 0.9% in 2026, reflecting a cautious consumer spending environment [1] - Year-to-date (YTD) growth for total FMCG was 1.5% as of September 2025, but Q3 2025 saw a significant slowdown to just 0.7% compared to the same period in 2024, indicating a potential decline in consumer confidence [1] Food Segment - The food category is projected to grow by 3.0% in 2026, driven by consumer demand for convenience, nutrition, and premiumization, with YTD growth of 3.4% in 2025 and 4.4% in Q3 [3] Dairy Segment - The dairy category is forecasted to contract by 6.2% in 2026, continuing a negative trend with YTD growth of -6.1% and -6.8% in Q3, attributed to competition from plant-based alternatives and price sensitivity [4] Beverages Segment - The non-alcoholic beverages segment is expected to grow by 3.9% in 2026, down from 4.8% the previous year, with YTD growth of 4.9% in 2025 but a decline to 1.7% in Q3, indicating a cooling consumption trend [5] Alcohol Segment - The alcohol category is predicted to decline by 0.6% in 2026, with YTD growth of 0.9% in 2025 overshadowed by a 4.2% contraction in Q3, reflecting consumer caution regarding discretionary spending [6] Household and Personal Care - Household care is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2026, with YTD growth of 3.1% but a slowdown to 1.7% in Q3, while personal care is forecasted to decline marginally by -0.1% in 2026, with YTD growth of 1.1% and stagnation in Q3 [7] Growth Opportunities - There are growth opportunities in lower-tier cities, supported by e-commerce and omnichannel retail. Categories focusing on health, functionality, and sustainability are gaining traction, and brands that innovate and align with consumer lifestyles will be well-positioned for success [8]
中国必需消费品成本指数追踪_2025 年 9 月_饮料、聚酯、酵母成本同比回落,啤酒成本上升;持续下降-China Consumer Staples Cost Index Tracker_ Sep 2025_ Easing cost for Beverage_Pet_Yeast yoy while higher for Beer; continued falling
2025-10-13 01:00
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China Consumer Staples sector, specifically analyzing cost trends in various sub-sectors including beer, condiments, dairy, beverages, prepared food, and pet food [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Cost Trends**: Most staples players are expected to experience cost tailwinds in 2025, albeit at smaller magnitudes compared to 2024. Key raw materials such as SPI, bean pulp, vegetables, and pork have seen price reductions ranging from 3% to 27% year-over-year [2][3]. - **Raw Material Costs**: - Barley prices decreased by 0.8% month-over-month (MoM) and are down 4% year-over-year (YoY). Most players have locked in barley prices with benefits ranging from mid-single digits to high-single digits percentage [3]. - Molasses prices fell by 8% MoM, indicating a 14% YoY decline, which is beneficial for yeast producers [4]. - Soybean prices increased slightly by 0.7% MoM, while bean pulp prices declined by 1.8% MoM [3]. - **Sector-Specific Cost Index Changes**: - The Frozen Bakery cost index decreased by 1.6% MoM, while the Beverage cost index fell by 1.1% MoM due to lower costs of milk powder, sugar, and cocoa [4]. - The Compound Condiments cost index increased by 0.7% MoM, primarily due to higher soybean prices [5]. - The Prepared Meal cost index rose by 0.4% MoM, driven by higher prices for beef, shrimp, and raw milk [8]. Additional Important Insights - **Cost Impact Analysis for 2025**: - The theoretical cost impact analysis ranks pet food, soy sauce, and food & beverages as having the most significant cost benefits on average. The expected gross profit margin (GPM) expansion is highest for soy sauce, followed by beer and frozen food [43]. - **Raw Milk Pricing**: Domestic raw milk prices have stabilized at approximately Rmb3.02/kg, offering a significant price advantage over imported dry powder prices, which is a reversal from previous trends [33][34]. - **Imported Milk Products**: The volume of imported milk powder grew by 13% YoY, while imported dry milk products increased by 3% YoY [37][41]. Conclusion - The China Consumer Staples sector is experiencing a mixed landscape of cost pressures and benefits, with significant variations across different sub-sectors. The analysis indicates potential opportunities for cost savings and margin improvements, particularly in pet food and soy sauce, while also highlighting the challenges posed by rising prices in certain categories like compound condiments and prepared meals [2][43].
The consolidated sales of VILVI Group September 2025
Globenewswire· 2025-10-10 06:40
VILVI Group, which consists of Vilkyškių pieninė AB, Modest AB, Kelmės pieninė AB, Kelmės pienas UAB, Pieno logistika AB and Baltic Dairy Board SIA, consolidated sales for September 2025 amounted EUR 24.29 million – 6.5% increase comparing to September 2024. The consolidated sales of the Group for period January – September 2025 amounted to EUR 215.82 million – 19.0% increase comparing to the same period last year. Vilija Milaseviciute Economics and finance director Phone: +370 441 55 102 Email: vilija.mila ...
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-10-08 08:05
Nestle has left the Dairy Methane Action Alliance, an industry initiative to reduce climate emissions https://t.co/AuDCcswoKq ...
StoneX and Expana to Launch OTC Dairy Derivatives
Globenewswire· 2025-10-07 10:27
Group 1 - StoneX Financial Europe GmbH has announced a collaboration with Expana to launch a new suite of OTC dairy derivatives referencing Expana's IOSCO-assured EU dairy benchmarks, enhancing risk management tools and price transparency in the global dairy industry [1][2] - The initial contracts will focus on fat-filled milk powder and high-protein whey, with plans to expand to additional dairy products in the future [2] - The collaboration aims to provide reliable, independent benchmarks that improve liquidity and support transparent pricing, ultimately strengthening risk management across the dairy sector [4] Group 2 - Spencer Wicks, CEO of Expana, stated that this partnership represents a significant milestone for the dairy industry, combining Expana's benchmarks with StoneX's leadership in OTC and futures dairy markets [3] - Liam Fenton, Global Head of Dairy & Food Group at StoneX, emphasized the increasing demand from clients for new risk management strategies in response to market volatility [4] - StoneX Group Inc. serves over 54,000 commercial, institutional, and payments clients, as well as more than 400,000 retail accounts globally [4]
From milk to manure to now ‘Gau-mutra’ : Banas Dairy procures cow urine for ₹5/litre from farmers
BusinessLine· 2025-09-29 06:32
First it was milk. Then cow dung. Now, India’s largest dairy has found gold in yet another bovine byproduct — cow urine. In a bold move, Banas Dairy has launched a pilot project to purchaseGau Mutra (cow urine) from local farmers at ₹5 per litre, which could boost rural incomes and promote organic farming.The initiative focuses on farmers who rear the indigenous Kankrej breed — a hardy, humped cattle native to Gujarat. The collected urine is processed at a facility in Banaskantha, where it is turned into po ...
伊利:路演反馈 -聚焦原奶供应周期与核心产品品类策略-Yili Industrial-NDR Feedback - Focus on Raw Milk Supply Cycle and Key Product Category Strategy
2025-09-29 02:06
Summary of Yili Industrial NDR Feedback Company Overview - **Company**: Yili Industrial (600887.SS) - **Industry**: China/Hong Kong Consumer - **Market Cap**: Rmb167,070 million - **Stock Rating**: Overweight - **Price Target**: Rmb35.00, representing a 28% upside from the closing price of Rmb27.26 on September 26, 2025 Key Industry Insights - **Raw Milk Supply/Demand Dynamics**: - Management indicated a sequential drop in cow herds and a rebound in non-contractual raw milk prices, expecting a supply/demand balance by 2026 [2][9] - **Product Category Strategy**: - Focus on liquid milk recovery, with a target of low to mid-single digit growth post-2026 [10] - Anticipation of higher growth in other dairy segments, leading to a gradual decline in liquid milk's contribution to total sales [2][9] - Plans to enhance the product portfolio mix and incubate new segments for long-term growth [9] Financial Projections - **Revenue Growth**: - Projected net revenue for fiscal years ending December 2024 to 2027: Rmb114,121 million, Rmb117,704 million, Rmb122,646 million, and Rmb129,510 million respectively [6] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - Expected EPS growth from Rmb1.32 in 2024 to Rmb2.24 in 2027 [6] - **Capital Expenditure**: - Estimated at Rmb3-4 billion per annum in the near term [10] Strategic Focus Areas - **Market Share Goals**: - Aim to secure the 1 market share for the Yili brand by 2027 [10] - **Dividend Policy**: - Commitment to maintain a dividend payout of no less than 70% and consider share buybacks [10] Risks and Considerations - **Upside Risks**: - Faster-than-expected demand recovery and better margin expansion due to rational marketing investments [13] - **Downside Risks**: - Potential for slower dairy demand growth and prolonged raw milk oversupply, which could necessitate continued promotional investments [13] Additional Insights - **Stimulus Policies**: - Management anticipates more rounds of subsidies to boost birth rates in 2026, which could positively impact raw milk supply [3] - **Long-term Growth Segments**: - Focus on deep-processing, overseas markets, and adult milk powder as part of the growth strategy [9] This summary encapsulates the key points from the Yili Industrial NDR feedback, highlighting the company's strategic direction, financial outlook, and industry dynamics.
TasFoods secures Pyengana Dairy sale
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-25 13:35
Core Insights - TasFoods has agreed to sell its Pyengana Dairy business to Research Corporation Pty Ltd and Associates as part of a strategy to enhance its poultry processing operations [1][3] - The transaction is valued at A$2 million (approximately $1.3 million), which includes A$1.7 million in cash and up to A$300,000 in shares, along with inventories [2] - The sale is expected to provide Pyengana Dairy with better opportunities for growth under new ownership, particularly in domestic and export markets [3][4] Financial Details - The proceeds from the sale will be utilized to pay down debt and strengthen the poultry supply chain [2] - Post-transaction, Research Corporation Pty Ltd and AgFood will collectively hold 12.94% of TasFoods shares [5] Strategic Context - The decision to divest Pyengana Dairy follows a strategic review initiated in August, indicating that the current structure was not suitable for scaling the cheese business [4] - TasFoods will continue to manage Pyengana Dairy under a paid monthly services agreement to ensure operational goals are met [5] Approval Process - The transaction is subject to shareholder approval, with an extraordinary general meeting (EGM) expected to be scheduled in November [5]
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-09-25 02:45
New Zealand dairy farmers are set to start spending again after a record milk payment, Fonterra's Peter McBride says https://t.co/8ft37D8zGe ...
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-09-24 21:51
Fonterra increased payments to its New Zealand farmer suppliers by 30% in the last financial year, with the promise of more to come after the sale of its consumer unit to Lactalis is completed https://t.co/D9wfgJFgPL ...