Vi e w p o i n t | 26 Jan 2026 19:51:10 ET │ 13 pages Mengniu (2319.HK) Likely more cyclical 26E NP recovery than peers CITI'S TAKE Among big-cap China consumer staple names, we expect Mengiu's cyclical NP recovery in 26E to be more substantial than peers. With the stabilized pace of YoY sales decline in 4Q25 (-HSD), we expect its 2025E full-year OPM to fall 30bps YoY, only slightly below its guidance (YoY flat). Positively, we expect its group sales to revert to HSD growth in Jan-Feb 2026E and 5% growth in ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation as a driving force for economic development, particularly in the context of China's strategic industries [1][5][14] - The completion of Beijing Rocket Street marks a significant milestone in commercial aerospace, facilitating a comprehensive ecosystem for rapid demand matching within the industry [1] - The production line for T1000-grade carbon fiber in Shanxi is a breakthrough in high-end materials, crucial for aerospace and defense, overcoming previous technological barriers [3][5] Group 2 - The application of AI in traditional industries, such as dairy production, showcases the deep integration of digital technologies, enhancing efficiency and traceability across the supply chain [7] - The artificial intelligence industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected scale exceeding 1.2 trillion yuan, reflecting a 30% increase from the previous year [7] - The low-altitude economy is transitioning from pilot projects to large-scale implementation, with significant policy support and the establishment of multiple eVTOL pilot cities [8] Group 3 - The role of enterprises in driving technological innovation is increasingly recognized, with state-owned enterprises significantly increasing R&D investments, reaching 890.16 billion yuan in 2025 [12] - Mechanisms to facilitate the transformation of scientific achievements into practical applications are being strengthened, with universities granting greater ownership of research outcomes to incentivize innovation [12][13] - The collaborative efforts among various stakeholders, including universities and government bodies, are fostering a comprehensive ecosystem for technology transfer and commercialization [14]

Vi e w p o i n t | Key takeaways from mgmt meeting post share placement CITI'S TAKE Youran mgmt expects a mild raw milk price recovery in 2026E with the industry's gradual herd reduction. Given sluggish demand, the company has no plan to add capacity. With fundraising, mgmt will prioritize balance sheet deleverage and technology investment to enhance operational efficiency, which they believe is the core competitive edge amid the soft industry environment. That said, they are eyeing M&A opportunities closel ...

Core Insights - The partnership between Zoned and Dairy MAX has been renewed and expanded, following the success of the "Farm to Fork" campaign, which won a Shorty Impact Award for its innovative approach to gamification in education [1][4]. Partnership Details - This marks the fourth annual renewal of the partnership, emphasizing its longevity and success in delivering educational content through gaming [1]. - Under the renewed agreement, Zoned will continue to create custom gaming experiences and educational modules that modernize dairy education [4]. Campaign Success - The "Farm to Fork" initiative introduced an immersive educational model within Fortnite, starting with Farm Tycoon, which achieved over 85,000 hours played and 20 million impressions [2]. - The subsequent Diner Tycoon experience became the 1 Top Rated Fortnite experience in the U.S. and globally within its first weekend, showcasing strong engagement among Gen Z and Gen Alpha audiences [3]. Industry Impact - The partnership highlights the increasing demand for purpose-driven experiences in gaming, positioning GameSquare as a leader in connecting brands with younger audiences [5]. - Dairy MAX represents dairy farm families across eight states, producing 15% of all U.S. milk, and aims to promote dairy's benefits through innovative educational initiatives [6]. Company Background - GameSquare is a media, entertainment, and technology company focused on connecting brands with Gen Z, Gen Alpha, and Millennial audiences through creative services and advanced analytics [7]. - Zoned is a marketing firm that leverages cultural insights to help brands authentically connect with their audiences, emphasizing the importance of engaging content in the digital landscape [9].

Core Insights - The 35th butter sculpture, titled "A Toast to Our Nation's 250th Anniversary: Inspired by Founders. Grown by Farmers," was deconstructed at the Pennsylvania Farm Show, with the butter being recycled into renewable energy [1][3] - The sculpture weighed 1,000 pounds and commemorated the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence, linking it to the history of American agriculture [2] - The dismantling was conducted by the American Dairy Association North East and the Pennsylvania Dairy Promotion Program, in collaboration with local farms and community organizations [3] Company and Industry Insights - Reinford Farms, which operates on 1,100 acres with 650 cows, utilizes two methane digesters to convert the butter and food waste into renewable energy, diverting approximately 60,000 tons of food waste from landfills annually [4] - The operation exemplifies a sustainable model, turning waste into energy and reducing greenhouse gas emissions [5] - The American Dairy Association North East is a regional organization that promotes dairy consumption and provides nutrition education, funded by over 8,300 dairy farm families [5][6]

作为全球主要乳制品生产企业之一，EkoNiva看好阿尔及利亚乳制品消费市场年均约10%的增长潜力。 当前，阿尔及利亚每年仍需进口约40万吨奶粉，用于保障国内供应。官方尚未披露合作项目的具体规模 和投资金额。 报道指出，该潜在合作与阿尔及利亚提升食品安全、减少乳制品进口的政策方向相一致，相关国际项目 叠加本土企业投入，被视为推动乳业本地化和中长期自给能力的重要补充。 据阿尔及利亚媒体Algerie3601月14日报道，在推进乳制品产业结构调整和降低进口依赖背景下，阿尔及 利亚正吸引新的国际投资者进入乳业领域。俄罗斯乳业集团EkoNiva近日与阿尔及利亚国有乳企Giplait 就潜在合作项目展开初步接触。 报道称，EkoNiva由其首席执行官Stefan Dürr率团访阿，与Giplait管理层就建设乳制品"试点牧场项目"进 行了讨论，重点围绕本地奶源开发与产能提升。相关磋商发生在卡塔尔Baladna项目推进之后，反映出 阿方持续推进乳业多元化国际合作。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview: China Consumer Staples Key Themes and Trends 1. **Cautious Outlook for 2026**: The industry is observing a cautious outlook into 2026, with a focus on the trends surrounding the Chinese New Year (CNY) [2] 2. **Mixed Performance in Beverages**: - Nongfu and Eastroc maintained strong momentum with double-digit growth despite being in a slack season, driven by strong product cycles [1] - Tingyi and UPC beverages experienced a decline in December due to heightened competition, although subsidies for freshly-made drinks have retreated [1] 3. **Beer Demand**: - Overall beer demand remains subdued, particularly in on-trade channels, with Bud China seeing a deeper sequential decline [1] - CR Beer and Chongqing Brewery managed slight volume growth, while Tsingtao's volume increased by 12% on easier comparisons [1] 4. **Condiments and Frozen Foods Recovery**: - Haitian reported sustained growth in the mid-single to high-single digits, with a faster quarter-on-quarter growth in Q4 [1] - Anjoy's growth accelerated in December despite a higher base, indicating a favorable setup for Q1 [1] 5. **Dairy Sector Stabilization**: - Liquid milk demand is stabilizing after a period of destocking, with herd downsizing settling at a 4.5% year-over-year decline [1] - Raw milk prices held steady at approximately Rmb3.03/kg in December, with a 3.0% year-over-year decline in average prices for Q4 [1][24] Company-Specific Insights 1. **Yili**: - Management highlighted an improving raw milk supply-demand balance supported by herd downsizing, although demand remains lackluster [2] - The company is focusing on channel inventory discipline and targeted marketing to sustain performance [8] 2. **Haitian**: - Noted a sequential acceleration in Q4 and sees potential for consumption upgrading in chained restaurants [2] 3. **Anjoy**: - Resumed double-digit sales growth since September, driven by enhanced execution and channel strategies [8] 4. **CR Beer**: - Expects no incremental SG&A investment impact in 2026, focusing on maintaining margins amid cost pressures [8] Market Dynamics 1. **Expense Outlook**: - The expense outlook remains cautious, with a focus on margin expansion for beer, dairy, and food & beverage sectors amid diminishing cost benefits [8] 2. **Channel Health**: - Companies are making efforts to sustain channel health throughout 2025, which is expected to underpin recovery in 2026 [8] 3. **New Product Cycles**: - A sequentially improving outlook for both Yili and Mengniu is anticipated, supporting volume and margin accretion [8] Investment Preferences 1. **Preferred Sectors**: - Beverage, pet foods, and condiments/prepared foods are highlighted as sectors with potential for growth [9] 2. **Key Stock Ideas**: - Recommendations include Eastroc, Nongfu, Weilong for visible growth, and Haitian H-shares/Anjoy as early beneficiaries of on-trade recovery [9] Additional Insights 1. **Snacks Performance**: - Weilong sustained strong sales growth in December, with vegetable snacks up over 30% year-over-year [1] 2. **Pet Foods**: - China Pet Foods led in year-over-year growth in December, while other covered names weakened compared to previous months [32] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the China consumer staples industry.

VILVI Group, which consists of Vilkyškių pieninė AB, Modest AB, Kelmės pieninė AB, Kelmės pienas UAB, Pieno logistika AB and Baltic Dairy Board SIA, consolidated sales for December 2025 amounted EUR 22.72 million – 16.6% increase comparing to December 2024. The consolidated sales of the Group for period January – December 2025 amounted to EUR 287.39 million – 17.1% increase comparing to the same period last year. Vilija Milaseviciute Economics and finance directorPhone: +370 441 55 102 Email: vilija.milase ...

Summary of Mengniu Dairy Corporate Day Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK) - **Industry**: Consumer & Leisure, specifically dairy products Key Takeaways 1. **Sales Guidance for FY25**: - Management reiterated a sales decline guidance of mid-single digits to high-single digits (MSD%-HSD%) for FY25, with expectations of a similar decline in the second half of FY25 [1] - Despite challenges, the company aims for a flat operating profit margin (OPM) year-over-year in 2025, although there are potential pressures from liquid milk pricing adjustments and channel investments [1] 2. **Segment Performance**: - **UHT Milk**: Demand remains soft, with greater pressure on basic milk compared to deluxe milk in the second half of FY25 [1] - **Chilled Fresh Milk**: Expected to achieve double-digit percentage (DD%) sales growth for FY25 and FY26, driven by brand investment and channel expansion [1] - **Chilled Yogurt**: Anticipated slight positive sales growth in FY25, supported by health trends and new initiatives like customized products with Sam's Club [1] - **Cheese and Milk Powder**: Management is optimistic about achieving DD% sales growth in cheese and solid OPM improvement in milk powder for FY25 [1] 3. **Industry Outlook**: - Overall demand in the dairy industry remains weak, with a projected 7-8% volume decline in liquid milk for 2025 [1] - Mengniu Dairy is expected to underperform the industry due to delayed pricing adjustments in response to declining raw milk prices [1] 4. **Financial Adjustments**: - The company anticipates a significant reduction in dry powder impairment losses by 40-50% compared to 2024, with a narrowed volume in dry powder expected in the second half of FY25 [1] - There are ongoing impairments related to the herd size cut at Modern Dairy for FY25 [1] 5. **Shareholder Returns**: - Mengniu Dairy plans to maintain its dividend per share (DPS) and total dividend in 2025 compared to 2024, with a total dividend payout expected to gradually increase [1] - The company will continue its share buy-back program, which will be larger in scale compared to the previous round in 2024 [1] Additional Insights - **Valuation and Price Target**: - Goldman Sachs has a Buy rating on Mengniu Dairy with a 12-month price target of HK$20.50, representing a potential upside of 36.9% from the current price of HK$14.97 [7] - The valuation is based on a 2026E P/E of 15.1x, which is one standard deviation below the prior downcycle P/E in 2015-16 [6] - **Risks**: - Key downside risks include slower-than-expected premium demand, a slower recovery in dairy demand, increased competition in the dairy industry, and wider losses in new product categories [6] This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed during the Mengniu Dairy Corporate Day, highlighting the company's performance expectations, industry challenges, and strategic initiatives for shareholder returns.

Summary of Yili Industrial (600887.SS) Corporate Day Company Overview - **Company**: Yili Industrial - **Industry**: Consumer & Leisure (Dairy Sector) Key Takeaways from the Corporate Day 1. **2025 Performance and Guidance**: - Management maintains guidance for positive sales growth and above 9% net profit margin (NPM) in 2025 - Growth driven by solid performance in non-UHT milk products and resilient UHT milk performance - UHT milk achieved stabilized market share; chilled liquid milk recorded positive growth in 9M25 - Cheese, milk powder, and ice cream delivered strong performance with double-digit percentage (DD%) sales growth in 9M25, expected to maintain for FY25 - Emerging channels (E-commerce, membership KAs, discounter stores, community stores) account for approximately 30% of UHT milk channel mix, while traditional supermarkets declined to 20% [1][1][1] 2. **2026 Outlook**: - Management expects improvement in raw milk supply/demand dynamics with herd cuts and stabilization of raw milk prices - Aims to outgrow the industry with positive sales growth in liquid milk in 2026, leveraging the Lunar New Year (LNY) season for growth through integrated marketing activities - Continued collaboration with emerging channels is planned - Confidence in cheese, milk powder, and adult nutrition products for 2026 [1][1][1] 3. **Infant Milk Formula (IMF) Strategy**: - Targeting double-digit percentage sales growth in milk powder - Aims to achieve No. 1 market share for Pro-kido by 2027, already holding No. 1 market share for Pro-kido + Ausnutria in 2025 - Anticipates a slight decline in new births in 2025 compared to 2024, but expects a slight increase in 2026 due to the Year of Horse in China [1][1][1] 4. **Long-term Growth Pillars**: - Cheese and dairy deep-processing identified as emerging long-term growth pillars - EU anti-dumping measures favoring domestic leaders in the Chinese dairy industry - Upgrades in adult nutrition and overseas business expected to drive incremental growth with potential double-digit percentage sales growth in 2026 [1][1][1] Financial Projections - **12-month Price Target**: Rmb33.90 - **Current Price**: Rmb27.68 - **Market Cap**: Rmb177.1 billion / $25.4 billion - **Revenue Projections**: - 2025: Rmb116.75 billion - 2026: Rmb119.00 billion - 2027: Rmb122.01 billion - **EBITDA Projections**: - 2025: Rmb16.10 billion - 2026: Rmb17.25 billion - 2027: Rmb18.55 billion - **EPS Projections**: - 2025: Rmb1.70 - 2026: Rmb1.79 - 2027: Rmb1.98 - **P/E Ratios**: - 2025: 16.3x - 2026: 15.5x - 2027: 14.0x - **Dividend Yield**: Expected to increase from 4.5% in 2025 to 5.4% in 2027 [7][7][7] Risks and Methodology - **Key Risks**: - Slower-than-expected demand for liquid milk premium products - Slower recovery in dairy demand - Increased competition [6][6][6] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from Yili Industrial's corporate day, highlighting the company's performance, strategic outlook, and financial projections.