Core Insights - Sugar prices are stabilizing after recent gains, with March NY world sugar 11 down by 0.01 (-0.07%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 remaining unchanged [1] - Positive developments in India regarding ethanol pricing are influencing sugar supply dynamics, as mills may shift focus from sugar production to ethanol [2] - India's food ministry has allowed mills to export 1.5 million metric tons (MMT) of sugar for the 2025/26 season, a reduction from earlier estimates of 2 MMT, due to a quota system introduced after production issues [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million MT for 2025-26, contrasting with a deficit of 2.916 million MT in 2024-25, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [4] - Global sugar production is expected to rise by 3.2% year-on-year to 181.8 million MT in 2025-26, contributing to bearish price trends [4] - Brazil's sugar production outlook is particularly bearish, with Conab raising its estimate for 2025/26 to 45 MMT, and recent data showing a 16.4% year-on-year increase in sugar output in the second half of October [6] Price Trends - The outlook for robust global sugar supplies has negatively impacted sugar prices, with London sugar reaching a 4.75-year low and NY sugar prices hitting a 5-year low [5] - Czarnikow has increased its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 8.7 MMT, indicating a growing supply situation [5] - The percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar in Brazil has also increased, further contributing to the bearish price environment [6]

Raw sugar rose as much as 3.1% to a two-week high as Brazilian mills continued to shift priority away from using cane for sugar in the second half of October, Friday data from industry group Unica showed https://t.co/c06ylmVYAK ...

Financial Performance - Adecoagro's gross revenues for 3Q25 were $323 million, a decrease of 29% compared to the same period last year[14] - Gross revenues for 9M25 reached $1,039 million, a decrease of 6% compared to the same period last year[14] - Adjusted EBITDA for 3Q25 was $115 million, a 4% increase compared to the same period last year[14] - Adjusted EBITDA for 9M25 was $206 million, a decrease of 39% compared to the same period last year, this includes one-off expenses of $9.2 million from Tether's tender offer[14, 15] Business Segment Highlights - **Sugar, Ethanol & Energy:** Quarterly crushing record was achieved, with a shift towards ethanol production due to greater cane availability[12] - Sugar production decreased by 16% in 3Q25 to 255,563 tons and 21% in 9M25 to 518,381 tons[27] - Ethanol production increased by 42% in 3Q25 to 216,113 m3 and 3% in 9M25 to 445,553 m3[28] - **Farming:** The company is reducing planted area and improving crop mix to enhance future margins[11] - **Rice:** Global prices for long-grain white rice are declining, leading to a reduction in planted area and an increased focus on premium varieties[11] - **Dairy:** Cow productivity and industrial volume reached record levels, with a focus on fluid milk production for the domestic market[11] Capital Allocation and Debt - Net debt evolution as of 3Q25 is $872 million[64] - The company made a $96 million initial down payment for the acquisition of Nutrien's 50% stake in Profertil[62] - $45.2 million was distributed to shareholders, including $35 million in cash dividends ($0.35 per share) and $10.2 million in share repurchases (1.1 million shares at an average price of $9.65 per share)[69]

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Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - Sugar prices are experiencing an upward trend, with March NY world sugar 11 increasing by +1.72% and December London ICE white sugar 5 rising by +1.17% due to a rally in crude oil prices [1] - The surge in crude oil prices, which rose more than +5% to a two-week high, is expected to lead sugar mills to shift more cane crushing towards ethanol production, potentially reducing sugar supplies [1] Group 2: Sugar Production and Supply Outlook - Sugar prices have been under pressure for the past seven months, with NY sugar reaching a 4.5-year low and London sugar hitting a 4.25-year low due to increased sugar output in Brazil, which rose by +10.8% year-on-year to 3.137 million tons in the second half of September [2] - Brazil's sugar mills increased the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar from 47.73% to 51.17% year-on-year in the same period, contributing to a cumulative sugar output of 33.524 million tons for 2025-26, up +0.8% year-on-year [2] - Datagro projects Brazil's Center-South sugar production for 2026/27 to rise by +3.9% year-on-year to a record 44 million tons, while BMI Group forecasts a global sugar surplus of 10.5 million tons for 2025/26 [3] Group 3: India’s Sugar Production and Export Potential - India's sugar production is expected to increase by +19% year-on-year to 34.9 million tons for 2025/26, following a significant decline of -17.5% year-on-year to 26.2 million tons in 2024/25 [4] - The Indian Meteorological Department reported that cumulative monsoon rainfall was 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, indicating a strong monsoon that could lead to a bumper sugar crop [4] - India may divert 4 million tons of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which may not sufficiently alleviate the sugar surplus and could lead to increased exports of up to 4 million tons, exceeding earlier expectations of 2 million tons [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Soft Commodity Sector** - **Sugar**: Affected by the gasoline price cut in Brazil, the international sugar price dropped, dragging down the Zhengzhou sugar futures. However, after the release of negative sentiment, marginal positive factors supported the sugar price, and the price rebounded slightly after an over - decline. It is recommended to operate within a range, focusing on the battle at the 5400 level [3]. - **Pulp**: In the third quarter, the domestic economic growth slowed down, dragging down the demand for finished paper. The supply of wood pulp remained high, and the demand for finished paper increased in the peak season, but the price increase was weak. It is recommended to operate with a short - bias on rebounds [4]. - **Offset Paper**: The improvement in demand for finished paper is limited, and the supply pressure may increase. Although the cost provides some support, the price increase is limited. It is recommended to short on rebounds [5][6]. - **Cotton**: Internationally, there are concerns about consumption. Domestically, the new cotton production increase is slightly lower than expected, and the Sino - US trade attitude has eased. However, the continuous positive factors are still insufficient, and it is recommended to reduce short positions [7]. - **Fresh Produce and Fruit Sector** - **Apples**: The new - season apples have smaller fruit sizes and a lower high - quality fruit rate, which supports the far - month contract. It is recommended to consider reverse spreads between the 1 - 5 contracts or hold long positions in the May contract cautiously [8]. - **Red Dates**: The futures price of red dates fluctuated. The inventory removal speed slowed down in October, and the terminal replenishment enthusiasm improved. It is recommended that aggressive investors short the 2601 contract at high levels, and cautious investors hold a reverse spread strategy of short 01 and long 05 [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Produce and Fruit Futures** - **Apple 2605**: Adopt a bullish approach, with a support range of 7900 - 8000 and a pressure range of 9500 - 9600, due to the support from smaller fruit sizes and a lower high - quality fruit rate [18]. - **Red Dates 2601**: Short at high levels, with a support range of 10500 - 11000 and a pressure range of 11500 - 12000, considering the overall market sentiment and the weather impact during the production - forming period [18]. - **Soft Commodity Futures** - **Sugar 2601**: Operate within a range, with a support range of 5350 - 5370 and a pressure range of 5470 - 5500, as the spot price is stable, but there are still bearish drivers [18]. - **Pulp 2601**: Short within the range, with a support range of 4900 - 4900 and a pressure range of 5200 - 5300, because of high supply pressure and weak domestic finished paper prices [18]. - **Offset Paper 2601**: Short on rebounds, with a support range of 4100 - 4200 and a pressure range of 4400 - 4500, as the price increase is limited by high supply elasticity during the peak season [18]. - **Cotton 2601**: Hold short positions cautiously, with a support range of 12800 - 13000 and a pressure range of 13600 - 13700, due to insufficient continuous positive factors [18]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamentals**: In September 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 70,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.32% [19]. - **Spot Market**: In Shandong, the price of late - maturing bagged Fuji apples was stable, with high - quality goods in short supply. In Shaanxi, the mainstream ordering price was stable, and high - quality goods were mostly pre - ordered. In the sales areas, the arrival volume was low, the sales speed was stable, and the price was stable [19][20]. - **Red Date Market**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9167 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.39% and a year - on - year increase of 93.89%. Attention should be paid to the circulation of old - season goods and price changes before the new - season harvest [21]. - **Sugar Market**: On October 22, the settlement price of the ICE raw sugar main contract dropped by 3.05%. Brazil's sugar export volume in the third week of October decreased by 2.68% year - on - year. The domestic spot price of sugar decreased slightly [23]. - **Pulp Market**: Chinese traders counter - offered the price of imported NBSK to $650 per ton, but the sellers refused. The price of broad - leaf pulp increased, and the price of coniferous pulp remained stable and weak. The supply of wood pulp was still high [4][27]. - **Offset Paper Market**: In Shandong, Guangdong, Beijing, and Tianjin, the price of offset paper was stable. The supply increased, and the demand improvement was limited [28][29]. - **Cotton Market**: As of October 20, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 67.9%. In August, India's cotton import volume increased by 8.4% month - on - month and 33.9% year - on - year [30]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review** - **Apple 2601**: The closing price was 8794, a decrease of 0.63% [30][31]. - **Red Dates 2601**: The closing price was 11265, a decrease of 1.01% [30][31]. - **Sugar 2601**: The closing price was 5426, a decrease of 0.22% [31]. - **Pulp 2511**: The closing price was 4854, unchanged [31]. - **Cotton 2601**: The closing price was 13535, a decrease of 0.04% [31]. - **Spot Market Review** - **Apple**: The spot price was 3.75 yuan per catty, unchanged month - on - month and an increase of 0.55 yuan year - on - year [37]. - **Red Dates**: The spot price was 9.40 yuan per kilogram, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 5.30 yuan [37]. - **Sugar**: The spot price was 5750 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 790 yuan [37]. - **Pulp**: The spot price of Shandong Yinxing pulp was 5550 yuan per ton, unchanged month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 700 yuan [37]. - **Offset Paper**: The spot price of Taiyang Tianyang offset paper in Tianjin was 4450 yuan per ton, unchanged month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 450 yuan [37]. - **Cotton**: The spot price was 14772 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 44 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 671 yuan [37]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation The content mainly presents relevant basis charts, but no specific text summary information is provided. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - **Apple**: The 1 - 5 spread was - 513, with a month - on - month decrease of 54 and a year - on - year decrease of 123. It is expected to fluctuate and decline, and it is recommended to short at high levels [56]. - **Red Dates**: The 9 - 1 spread was 125, with a month - on - month increase of 150 and a year - on - year decrease of 240. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to wait and see [56]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 spread was 43, with a month - on - month increase of 1 and a year - on - year increase of 27. It is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [56]. - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 spread was - 40, with a month - on - month increase of 20 and a year - on - year increase of 30. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to short at high levels [56]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation The content mainly presents relevant positioning charts, but no specific text summary information is provided. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - **Apple**: The number of warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year [89]. - **Red Dates**: The number of warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year [89]. - **Sugar**: The number of warehouse receipts was 8313, a month - on - month decrease of 63 and a year - on - year decrease of 1344 [89]. - **Pulp**: The number of warehouse receipts was 226269, a month - on - month decrease of 141 and a year - on - year decrease of 164017 [89]. - **Cotton**: The number of warehouse receipts was 2565, a month - on - month decrease of 14 and a year - on - year decrease of 1109 [89]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data The content mainly presents relevant option charts, but no specific text summary information is provided.

Core Insights - Sugar prices have experienced a significant decline, with NY Sugar closing down 3.05% and London sugar down 3.02%, reaching multi-year lows due to expectations of robust global sugar supplies [1][2] Supply Outlook - Brazil's Center-South sugar production for 2026/27 is projected to increase by 3.9% year-on-year to a record 44 million metric tons (MMT) [2] - Unica reported a 10.8% year-on-year increase in Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the second half of September, totaling 3.137 MMT [3] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South for 2025-26 through September rose by 0.8% year-on-year to 33.524 MMT [3] India’s Production and Export Potential - India's sugar production for 2025/26 is expected to rise by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 MMT, following a significant decline of 17.5% in 2024/25 [4] - The Indian Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rainfall of 937.2 mm, which is 8% above normal, indicating a strong monsoon that could lead to a bumper sugar crop [4] - India may divert 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which could lead to increased sugar exports, potentially reaching 4 MMT, exceeding earlier expectations of 2 MMT [5]

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