Core Viewpoint - The cruise industry is experiencing record quarterly net income, revenue, and booking volume, indicating strong performance and growth potential, leading Melius to suggest that the recent stock selloff presents a buying opportunity [1] Summary by Category - **Financial Performance** - Quarterly net income, revenue, and booking volume reached all-time highs, showcasing the industry's robust financial health [1] - **Market Sentiment** - The stock's recent decline is viewed as an opportunity for investors to capitalize on the strong fundamentals of the cruise industry [1]

Company Earnings - Carnival (NYSE: CCL) reported third-quarter earnings of $1.43 per share, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of $1.32 per share [2] - The company also reported quarterly sales of $8.153 billion, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of $8.101 billion [2] Stock Movements - Tilray Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ: TLRY) shares increased by 40% to $1.6050 following a video from President Donald Trump promoting cannabis health benefits [8] - Merus N.V. (NASDAQ: MRUS) shares surged 36% to $93.93 after Genmab agreed to acquire the company for $97 per share [8] - Better Home & Finance Holding Company (NASDAQ: BETR) shares rose 17% to $62.23 after announcing a $75 million at-the-market offering for Class A shares [8] - KALA BIO, Inc. (NASDAQ: KALA) shares plummeted 89% to $2.15 after failing to meet primary endpoints in a clinical trial [8] - MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (NASDAQ: MLTX) shares fell 89% to $6.69 due to a failed trial [8] - IO Biotech, Inc. (NASDAQ: IOBT) shares dropped 78% to $0.3501 following an update after a pre-BLA meeting with the FDA [8] Economic Indicators - U.S. pending home sales surged by 4% in August, marking the sharpest gain in five months, compared to a 0.4% decline in the previous month [10] - The Dallas Fed's general business activity index for Texas manufacturing declined to -8.7 in September from -1.7 in the previous month [10]

Company Performance - Carnival reported third quarter earnings that exceeded estimates, with adjusted EPS at $1.43 and revenue surpassing $8 billion [1] - Despite strong earnings, Carnival's stock is trading lower, reflecting market concerns despite a 23% year-to-date increase and a 64% rise over the past year [4][19] Market Trends - Booking trends for Carnival have strengthened since May, indicating robust demand for cruises, particularly for 2026 [2][6] - The cruise industry is experiencing a positive consumer sentiment, with customers willing to spend on future vacations [8][9] Competitive Landscape - Carnival's stock has underperformed compared to Royal Caribbean but has outperformed Norwegian Cruise Line [7] - Viking is noted as the only cruise line outperforming on the day following Carnival's earnings report [2][29] Financial Considerations - Carnival is facing concerns regarding external factors such as potential shutdowns and tariffs, which may impact future performance [5] - The company has significant debt due to expansion efforts, but it trades at a relatively low PE ratio of about 13 to 14, suggesting potential investment opportunities [10][11] Investment Strategies - Options strategies are being discussed to capitalize on the current lower implied volatility following earnings, with a focus on in-the-money calls for bullish trades [20][22] - A put butterfly strategy is being considered for Royal Caribbean, which has a strong balance sheet and is expected to perform well despite upcoming earnings [26][27]

Core Insights - Carnival Corporation & plc reported record third-quarter 2025 results with net income of $1.9 billion, or $1.33 per diluted share, an increase from $1.7 billion a year earlier [1] - Adjusted net income was $2.0 billion, or $1.43 per diluted share, exceeding analyst expectations of $1.32 [1] - Revenue rose to $8.153 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $8.101 billion and increasing from $7.9 billion last year [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted EBITDA reached $3.0 billion [1] - Net yields in constant currency increased by 4.6% year over year, while gross margin yields improved by 6.4% [2] - Cruise costs per available lower berth day (ALBD) rose by 4.6% from 2024, with adjusted cruise costs excluding fuel increasing by 5.5%, which was 1.5 points better than guidance [2] Operational Metrics - Fuel consumption per ALBD fell by 5.2% due to efficiency investments [3] - Passenger cruise days totaled 27.5 million, with occupancy steady at 112% [3] - Customer deposits reached a record $7.1 billion as of August 31 [3] Cash Flow and Liquidity - Cash from operations was $1.38 billion in the quarter and $4.7 billion year-to-date [3] - Capital expenditures totaled $648 million in the quarter [3] - Liquidity stood at $6.26 billion, and total debt was $26.5 billion [4] Debt Management - The company improved its net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio to 3.6x from 4.7x a year earlier [4] - During the quarter, the company refinanced $4.5 billion of debt and prepaid $700 million, while issuing new senior unsecured notes totaling $4.2 billion [6] - Moody's upgraded its credit rating and maintained a positive outlook [6] Future Outlook - Booking trends have strengthened since May, with higher booking volumes than last year, affirming the success of demand generation efforts [5] - Nearly half of 2026 is booked at historical high prices for both North America and Europe segments, building a strong base for next year [5] - Record booking volumes for 2027 were achieved during the third quarter [5]

Core Insights - Carnival Corporation reported strong demand for cruising, with yields up over 4.5% in the third quarter, exceeding guidance [1][2] - The company has increased its guidance for the third time this year, projecting over 5% yields for the year, primarily driven by same-ship sales rather than new ships [2][3] - Booking visibility is strong, with 50% of 2026 bookings already secured and two-thirds booked for the next 12 months [2][3] Financial Performance - Carnival Corporation achieved a 13% return on invested capital (ROIC) for the first time in nearly 20 years, alongside record net income for the quarter [4] - The company has reported record revenues, EBITDA, and operating income on a unit basis, marking the highest performance in 20 years [4] - Booking volumes for Carnival Cruise Line, the largest brand, were 8% higher year-over-year in the third quarter [5] Market Positioning - The strength of the portfolio is evident, particularly in the top two returning brands, Carnival and Aida, which are performing well due to the value offered [6] - Pricing growth is expected to hold into next year, with bookings at higher prices compared to the previous year for both North American and European brands [7] - Carnival Corporation competes not just with other cruise lines but also with the broader vacation market, emphasizing the value proposition of cruising over land-based vacations [9][10]

Group 1 - Carnival reported $8.15 billion in revenue for the quarter ended August 2025, a year-over-year increase of 3.3% [1] - EPS for the same period was $1.43, compared to $1.27 a year ago, representing an EPS surprise of +8.33% over the consensus estimate of $1.32 [1] - The reported revenue exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $8.07 billion by +0.99% [1] Group 2 - Key metrics monitored include ALBDs at 24.6 million, occupancy percentage at 112%, and passenger cruise days (PCDs) at 27.5 million [4] - Fuel cost per metric ton consumed was reported at $607.00, higher than the estimated $595.27 [4] - Net yields per ALBD were $249.11, surpassing the average estimate of $247.58 [4] Group 3 - Revenues from onboard and other sources were $2.72 billion, exceeding the average estimate of $2.66 billion, with a year-over-year change of +2.5% [4] - Revenues from passenger tickets reached $5.43 billion, compared to the average estimate of $5.34 billion, reflecting a year-over-year change of +3.7% [4] - Carnival's stock has returned -4% over the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite increased by +2.9% [3]

Core Insights - Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) reported strong third-quarter fiscal 2025 results, with adjusted earnings and revenues exceeding expectations and showing year-over-year growth [2][4][9] - The company raised its full-year fiscal 2025 adjusted net income guidance for the third consecutive quarter, driven by stronger net yields and effective cost management [3][12] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for Q3 were $1.43, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.32 by 8.3%, and increased from $1.27 in the same quarter last year [4] - Total revenues for the quarter reached $8.15 billion, beating the consensus mark of $8.07 billion by 1% and reflecting a 3.3% year-over-year increase [4] - Adjusted net income for the quarter was $1.98 billion, a 13.2% increase from $1.75 billion year-over-year [6] - Adjusted EBITDA totaled $3 billion, up from $2.82 billion in the prior-year quarter [6] Revenue Breakdown - Passenger ticket revenues amounted to $5.43 billion, up from $5.24 billion in the prior-year quarter, exceeding estimates of $5.25 billion [5] - Onboard and other revenues increased to $2.72 billion from $2.66 billion year-over-year, matching estimates [5] Balance Sheet and Liquidity - As of August 31, 2025, cash and cash equivalents were $1.76 billion, up from $1.21 billion as of November 30, 2024 [7] - Total liquidity at the end of the quarter was $6.26 billion, with total debt decreasing to $26.5 billion from $27.48 billion [7] Booking Trends - Carnival has experienced strong booking momentum since May, with volumes exceeding last year and outpacing capacity growth [8] - Nearly half of fiscal 2026 is already booked at historical high prices, with record booking volumes for 2027 [10] Future Outlook - For Q4 fiscal 2025, Carnival expects adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.34 billion and adjusted net income of about $300 million, with adjusted EPS projected at nearly 23 cents [11] - The company anticipates adjusted EBITDA for fiscal 2025 to be around $7.05 billion, indicating over 15% growth year-over-year, and adjusted net income to be about $2.925 billion [12]

Group 1 - Norwegian Cruise Line is making headlines as it rings the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange [1] - Arc Best is also active at NASDAQ, with a positive sentiment among investors despite potential risks from a government shutdown [2][5] - The tech-heavy NASDAQ composite is showing gains, with a rise of approximately 0.5% [6] Group 2 - Electronic Arts shares are up 5% following news of a record-breaking $55 billion deal to take the company private, ending its 36-year run as a public firm [7] - Cannabis stocks are experiencing significant movement, with Tillray up over 28% and Canopy Growth up 13%, driven by President Trump's comments on CBD benefits [8] Group 3 - The potential government shutdown could lead to the furlough of around 900,000 federal employees, which may delay key economic data releases, including the jobs report [11][19] - Goldman Sachs has raised concerns about the market being in a bubble while also indicating that the economic impact of a shutdown would be modest [12][19] - Historically, stocks tend to rebound after a government shutdown, with an average rise of about 3% one month later [20] Group 4 - The U.S. economy is showing mixed signals, with a second-quarter GDP increase of 3.8% driven by consumer spending, but weak labor market readings, including only 22,000 jobs added in August [38][39] - The upcoming jobs report is crucial, with economists expecting an increase of 45,000 jobs for September [39][45] Group 5 - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the labor market, with expectations of potential rate cuts in response to economic conditions [18][34] - Analysts suggest that the labor market may see a reacceleration in job growth, particularly in sectors like financial services and construction, as the economy continues to grow [51][52] Group 6 - Gold prices are reaching new highs, driven by government shutdown risks and expectations of further Fed easing, with Goldman Sachs projecting gold could reach $4,000 by mid-2026 [23][24] - Central bank holdings of gold have surpassed U.S. treasuries for the first time since 1996, indicating a significant shift in investment strategies [25]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved record revenues, yields, operating income, EBITDA, and customer deposits, with net income reaching an all-time high of $2 billion, surpassing pre-pandemic levels by nearly 10% [9][22] - Operating income and EBITDA reached the highest levels in nearly 20 years, despite a 2.5% lower capacity compared to the previous year [9][11] - Yields increased by 4.6% on a same-ship basis, exceeding guidance due to strong close-in demand and onboard spending [10][22] - The company reported a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 13%, the first time in nearly 20 years that returns have reached the teens [11][19] - Net debt to EBITDA ratio improved to 3.6 times, approaching investment-grade metrics [11][28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Customer deposits reached a record $7.1 billion, up over $300 million year-over-year, driven by higher ticket pricing and increased sales of pre-cruise onboard revenue items [24] - Cruise costs without fuel per available lower berth day (ALBD) increased by 5.5% compared to the prior year, but were better than guidance due to cost-saving initiatives [23][28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Booking trends have improved, with nearly half of 2026 already booked at higher prices, indicating strong demand [12][26] - The company expects 2.8 million guests to visit Celebration Key next year, with high utilization rates anticipated [15][17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on increasing same-ship yields and closing the value gap with land-based alternatives, with plans to return capital to shareholders as leverage improves [12][29] - The successful launch of Celebration Key is expected to enhance guest experiences and drive future bookings [14][27] - The company is investing in its brands and operational improvements to enhance profitability and returns, with a disciplined approach to capital deployment [19][20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the continued strength of booking trends and operational execution, despite potential headwinds from new loyalty programs and dry dock expenses [26][60] - The company anticipates a capacity increase of only 0.8% in 2026, which is expected to support pricing power and yield improvements [26][60] Other Important Information - The company has been actively refinancing to reduce interest expenses and strengthen its capital structure, with over $11 billion of debt refinanced at favorable rates [28][30] - The company is targeting a net debt to EBITDA ratio of under three times, with plans to return capital to shareholders once this target is achieved [29][30] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on forward booking prices - Management clarified that both North America and Europe are at historic record high pricing levels, with no significant changes from the previous quarter [35][36] Question: Impact of Celebration Key on forward bookings - Management indicated that Celebration Key is positively impacting ticket prices for itineraries that include the destination, meeting expectations [37][38] Question: Observations on consumer behavior - Management noted that they have not observed significant behavioral shifts among consumers, with strong booking trends continuing [46][48] Question: 2026 outlook and booking strategy - Management expressed confidence in the 2026 outlook, with a strong booking curve and no capacity growth expected [60][61] Question: Capital return strategy - Management indicated that discussions on capital return will occur once leverage metrics improve, with a focus on reinstating dividends [76][77]

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