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2 October 2025 | 3:10PM AEST Equity Research GLOBAL METALS & MINING Rare Earths (NdPrO) SD update: deficits to 2027, price decoupling from China to accelerate The Rare Earth (RE) market fundamentally changed in 2025 from a strategic perspective when the Chinese government imposed export restrictions on seven rare earth elements in April. Western governments and companies have responded with funding to support both an expansion of Western World RE magnet capacity and a pricing separation from the Chinese bas ...

BEIJING (Reuters) -China tightened its rare earth export controls on Thursday, expanding restrictions on processing technology, unauthorised overseas cooperation and spelling out its intention to limit exports to overseas defence and semiconductor users. Exports of technology used to mine and process rare earths or make the associated magnets is barred without permission, the Ministry of Commerce said in a statement. Many of these technologies are already restricted and it was not immediately clear what t ...

Core Insights - MP Materials Corp. reported a negative operating cash flow of $66.8 million in the first half of 2025, a significant decline from an outflow of $10.3 million in the same period last year, primarily due to deferred revenues and inventory buildup [1][8] - The company has experienced a downturn in cash flow performance since 2022, closely tracking the decline in rare earth prices and lower demand for magnetic products [2][3] Financial Performance - In 2023, cash flow from operations decreased by 82% year over year to $62.7 million, with further declines in 2024, where operating cash flow dropped 79% to $13.3 million [3] - Free cash flow was negative $196 million in 2023 and negative $173 million in 2024, indicating ongoing financial challenges [3] Cost and Expense Dynamics - Higher production costs associated with separated products and increased selling, general, and administrative expenses due to workforce expansion have pressured operating margins and cash flows [4] Production and Revenue Outlook - On a positive note, NdPr production volumes are increasing, and a recent U.S. Department of Defense agreement establishes a price floor of $110 per kilogram for NdPr products, which may stabilize future cash flows [5][8] - The decision to halt rare earth shipments to China has led to a rebound in rare earth prices, potentially improving cash flow performance moving forward [6] Market Performance and Valuation - MP Materials' shares have surged 372.9% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the industry average growth of 29.9% [7] - The company is trading at a forward 12-month price/sales multiple of 25.13X, which is a substantial premium compared to the industry average of 1.46X [10] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MP Materials' 2025 earnings is a loss of 28 cents per share, an improvement from a loss of 44 cents in 2024, with a projected earnings of 91 cents per share in 2026 [11]

Australia's Lynas Rare Earths has partnered with U.S.-based manufacturer Noveon Magnetics to supply rare-earth permanent magnets to defense and commercial sectors in the U.S., the two companies said on Wednesday. ...

STILLWATER, Okla., Oct. 07, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- USA Rare Earth, Inc. (Nasdaq: USAR) (USAR or the Company), today announced that it will release financial results for the quarterly period ended September 30, 2025, after U.S. markets close on Thursday, November 6, 2025. Additionally, the Company will host a conference call that afternoon to discuss the results and related matters. EARNINGS RELEASEThursday, November 6, 2025 (after market close) LIVE CONFERENCE CALLThursday, November 6, 2025, at 4 p.m. CT ...

Over the course of this year, the Trump administration has built a portfolio of strategic corporate holdings, with direct ownership stakes in several major companies.The strategy appears to largely revolve around securing critical supply chains in semiconductors, rare earths, lithium, and steel.More precisely, Washington now owns 10% equity stake in Intel (NASDAQ: INTC), 15% in MP Materials (NYSE: MP), 10% in Lithium Americas (NYSE: LAC), and 10% in Trilogy Metals (NASDAQ: TMQ).In addition, the government o ...

The US government has shot down reports that it is considering buying a stake in Critical Metals (NASDAQ: CRML), the company developing one of the world’s largest rare earth resources in Greenland.The Trump administration is not currently considering a deal that would see it take a stake in Critical Metals, a White House official stated on Monday, as first reported by Bloomberg.On Friday, Reuters reported that Washington had been in talks over an equity investment in the New York-based company while it was ...

Geopolitical Developments - Hamas has agreed to release all Israeli hostages, both alive and deceased, in response to a U.S. plan aimed at ending the ongoing conflict in Gaza [2][3] - The agreement includes discussions on a peace plan within a comprehensive Palestinian framework, as outlined in a 20-point plan released by the U.S. [4][5] Market Reactions - The Israeli shekel has firmed, and oil prices have decreased from their session highs following the news of Hamas's agreement [2] - The potential government shutdown in Washington is being monitored, with the House Speaker designating next week as a district work period, which may prolong the shutdown [6][8] Stock Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high, while the Nasdaq composite and NASDAQ 100 ended the day in the red [9][8] - The Russell 2000 index gained 1.8% on the day, driven by strong performance in quantum computing stocks [10] Sector Performance - The healthcare sector was the biggest winner, while the technology sector saw a decline of about 0.3% [11][12] - U.S. Rare Earths stock surged 14% after reports of close communications with the Trump administration regarding potential government deals [13][14] Notable Decliners - Palantir shares fell 7.5% following a report of flaws in its battlefield communication system, despite the company stating that the issues were outdated and inaccurate [18][19] - Casino companies with significant exposure to Macau, such as Wynn Resorts and Las Vegas Sands, dropped over 7% due to weaker-than-expected national passenger data from China's travel ministry [20][21] Commodity Trends - Global meat prices reached a record high in September, driven by tight beef supply and tariffs on imports from Brazil [23][24] - The U.S. condiments market has seen a 50% increase since the pandemic, now valued at $2 billion [26]

Group 1 - Shares of USA Rare Earth (USAR) experienced a significant increase after the CEO announced ongoing discussions with the Trump White House regarding the supply of rare earth magnets and minerals [1]