Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant movements in various asset classes, with Brent crude oil prices experiencing a notable spike of +11.7% and a +2 standard deviation move, marking the largest increase since the onset of the Ukraine conflict [9][94]. - The DXY index fell to its lowest level in over three years, indicating a weakening of the US dollar against other currencies [9][12]. - The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index showed the largest monthly increase in the last 30 years, suggesting a potential shift in consumer confidence [9][12]. Summary by Sections Equities - Major equity markets generally posted losses, with the exception of emerging market equities [94]. - Sector performance was mixed, with energy (+5.1%) and healthcare (+1.4%) sectors outperforming, while financials (-1.8%) and industrials (-0.9%) lagged [94]. Fixed Income - Credit spreads widened across US and EU investment-grade (IG) and high-yield (HY) indices, indicating increased risk perception [94]. - The US Treasury 10-year yield decreased by 11 basis points, reflecting a rally in developed market rates [94]. Currencies - Most G10 currencies appreciated against the US dollar, indicating a shift in currency dynamics [94]. Commodities - Most major commodity markets posted gains, with Brent crude oil leading the performance [94]. - Gold prices reached new highs, reflecting increased demand for safe-haven assets [13]. Market Sentiment - The report indicates a significant shift in market sentiment, with the Market Sentiment Indicator (MSI) reflecting changes in positioning and volatility [50][55]. Cross-Asset Positioning - The report provides a detailed summary of net positioning across various asset classes, indicating a diverse range of strategies among asset managers, hedge funds, and dealers [60]. Correlations - The report discusses cross-asset correlations, noting a current correlation index of 43%, which is above the 10-year median of 39% [69]. Volatility - The cross-asset volatility monitor indicates varying levels of implied volatility across major equity markets, with the S&P 500 showing an implied volatility of 17.4% [92]. Fund Flows - The report tracks daily fund flows across approximately 5,000 ETFs globally, covering around $7 trillion in assets, providing insights into cross-asset sentiment and positioning [20]. Key Data - The report includes forecasts for various asset classes, with expected returns and risk metrics for Q2 2026 [4][16].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the equity markets, focusing on positioning metrics and investor sentiment as of June 16, 2025, provided by Goldman Sachs (GS) FICC and Equities Division. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **CTA Positioning**: - CTAs have a long position of $78 billion, ranking in the 66th percentile. Recent estimates indicate insignificant changes in the next week and month, with a downside skew [2][4][39]. - In the last week, CTAs bought $3.5 billion in equities globally [2]. 2. **Performance Estimates**: - GS Equity Fundamental Long/Short (L/S) Performance Estimate rose by +0.07% from June 6 to June 12, compared to MSCI World TR which increased by +1.43%. This was driven by a beta of +0.70% but offset by an alpha of -0.64% due to losses on both sides [2]. - The GS Equity Systematic L/S Performance Estimate fell by -0.14% during the same period, driven by short side losses [2]. 3. **Market Flows**: - Over the next week, sellers are expected to sell $0.35 billion, while buyers are expected to buy $0.88 billion. In a down market, sellers are projected to sell $20.65 billion [4]. - For the next month, significant selling is anticipated at $130.93 billion, with buyers expected to purchase $14.23 billion [4]. 4. **Investor Sentiment**: - The Sentiment Indicator stands at -1.2, indicating persistently light investor positioning in US equities despite a 21% rally in the S&P 500 since April [53][55]. - Mutual fund and ETF flows have shown outflows of $17 billion in June, contributing to the negative sentiment [58]. 5. **Sector Performance**: - The industrial sector has been the most net bought in the US, with gross/net allocations at 12.8%/11.8%, ranking in the 99th/55th percentiles over the past year [41]. - Seven out of eleven global sectors were net bought, with healthcare, financials, energy, and utilities leading the way [42]. 6. **Professional Investor Positioning**: - Professional investors are maintaining cautious positioning, with a significant decline in demand for levered equity exposure noted since the beginning of 2025 [70][71]. - The demand for oil options has reached extreme levels, with call buying pushing the oil put-call skew to its most extreme level in over 25 years, indicating expectations for significant upside [73]. Additional Important Insights - The overall book gross leverage increased by 3.6 percentage points to 292.4%, while net leverage rose by 0.2 percentage points to 78% [39]. - The trading activity in Asia (both developed and emerging markets) saw the largest increase in over five years, driven by long buys outpacing short sales [41]. - The sentiment indicator's components tracking mutual fund and ETF flows have remained low, reflecting a cautious outlook among various investor types [56][58]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the equity markets, investor sentiment, and sector performance as analyzed by Goldman Sachs.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating on US stocks, Treasuries, and US Investment Grade Corporate Credit, while recommending a focus on quality assets [4][5][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a structural shock to the global trading order due to the broad imposition of tariffs by the US, which is expected to weigh on growth but not lead to a global recession [2]. - US real GDP growth is projected to decline from 2.5% in 2024 to 1.0% in both 2025 and 2026, with global growth expected to decrease from 3.5% to 2.5% in the same period [2][9]. - The report suggests that while global growth is slowing, risk assets may perform well as markets adjust to lower growth expectations [3]. Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to experience a step-down in growth, with inflation projected to peak in Q3 2025 [2][8]. - The report anticipates a decline in global demand due to tariffs, impacting exports and investment in the euro area and China [8]. - Japan's nominal GDP reflation remains intact, but the global slowdown is expected to affect its exports and investment [8]. Sector Recommendations - In the US, the report favors quality cyclicals, large caps, and defensives with less leverage and cheaper valuations [6]. - Key sectors recommended for Europe include defense, banks, software, telecoms, and diversified financials, while in emerging markets, the focus is on financials and domestic businesses [6]. - The report advises against cyclical exporters in Japan due to anticipated JPY appreciation [6]. Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts for major indices, with the S&P 500 expected to reach a price target of 6,500 by June 2026, reflecting a 9% year-over-year increase [7]. - The MSCI Europe index is projected to have a modest growth of 2.2% year-over-year, while the MSCI Emerging Markets index is expected to grow by 10% [7]. Monetary Policy Expectations - The report expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 175 basis points in 2026, with Treasury yields projected to reach 4.00% by the end of 2025 [14][19]. - The European Central Bank and Bank of England are also expected to implement rate cuts, with the ECB delivering 75 basis points and the BoE 100 basis points by year-end [14][19]. Commodity Insights - Oil prices are subject to geopolitical uncertainties, with potential scenarios ranging from minimal disruption to significant price increases depending on developments in the Middle East [16]. - European gas prices are expected to rise due to a strong demand for LNG imports to meet storage targets [17]. - Gold is highlighted as a top pick due to strong central bank demand and safe-haven interest amid growth concerns [17].

Core Viewpoint - Univest Securities, LLC announced the closing of a public offering of approximately $8 million for Chanson International Holding, a provider of bakery, seasonal, and beverage products in China and the United States [1][3]. Group 1: Offering Details - The offering consisted of 16,000,000 units priced at $0.50 per unit, each unit comprising one Class A ordinary share or a pre-funded warrant, along with Series A and Series B warrants [2]. - Each Series A and Series B warrant has an exercise price of $0.525 per Class A ordinary share and is exercisable starting from the issuance date until two and a half years after [2]. Group 2: Use of Proceeds - The net proceeds from the offering will be used to open new stores in China and the U.S., with allocation based on market conditions [3]. Group 3: Company Overview - Chanson International Holding, founded in 2009, operates 63 stores in China and 3 in New York City, offering packaged bakery products, made-in-store pastries, and beverages [7]. - The company focuses on creating healthy, nutritious, and ready-to-eat food through advanced facilities and aims to provide a comfortable store environment for customers [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains its investment recommendations for the Asia EM Equity Strategy despite recent geopolitical events [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights Asia's vulnerability to oil price spikes, particularly following Israel's military actions against Iran, which have led to a rise in Brent oil prices to US$75 per barrel [2]. - Iran's oil exports, ranging from 1.4 million to 1.7 million barrels per day, predominantly reach Asian markets, exacerbating the region's trade deficits [3]. - Countries most affected by oil price increases relative to GDP include Thailand (7.2%), Korea (4.4%), Taiwan (4.1%), and India (3.1%) [3]. Summary by Sections Oil and Gas Trade Deficits - Thailand has the highest oil and gas trade deficit at 7.2% of GDP, followed by Korea at 4.4%, Taiwan at 4.1%, and India at 3.1% [3]. - The overall commodity trade balance for Asia shows a deficit of 3.5%, with significant variations across countries [3]. Current Account Balance - The current account balance for Thailand is -1.0%, while India shows a more favorable position at 14.7% [3]. - The report indicates that the current account balance is a critical metric for assessing economic stability in the context of rising oil prices [3].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a negative trend in global equity fund flows, with net outflows of $10 billion for the week ending June 11, contrasting with inflows of $5 billion in the previous week [3] Core Insights - There were significant net outflows from equity funds, particularly in G10 markets, while fixed income funds experienced robust inflows, particularly in emerging markets [3][9] - Emerging market local currency bond funds saw strong inflows, indicating a preference for these assets amidst the broader market trends [3][9] - The report highlights a shift in investor preference towards short-duration bond funds over long-duration options [3][9] Summary by Sections Global Fund Flows - Total equity experienced net outflows of $18.2 billion over the past four weeks, with a weekly outflow of $10 billion [9] - Fixed income funds saw inflows of $77.1 billion, with $15.1 billion in the latest week, driven by demand for credit products [9] - Money market funds had a decline of $9.1 billion in assets [9] Equity Flows - Developed markets saw significant outflows, particularly from US equities, which had outflows of $24.2 billion [9] - Emerging markets showed mixed results, with mainland China experiencing outflows of $7.2 billion, while Taiwan and Brazil saw inflows of $4.7 billion and $0.8 billion respectively [9] Fixed Income Flows - Total fixed income inflows were $77.1 billion, with $64.2 billion from developed markets [9] - Emerging market fixed income funds had inflows of $10.8 billion, with local currency bonds being particularly favored [9] FX Flows - Cross-border FX flows remained elevated at $56.4 billion, with G10 currencies attracting strong inflows [11] - The report notes that the South Korean won (KRW) saw the strongest net inflows among Asian currencies [11] Sector Flows - Consumer goods funds saw the largest net inflows, while technology funds experienced the greatest net outflows [3][9] - The report indicates a notable preference for sectors such as consumer goods and utilities, contrasting with the outflows from technology and financial sectors [9]

13 June 2025 | 7:27PM BST Global Rates Trader Inflation Offers Relief, Oil Offers Risks Inflation relief for global bond markets was short-lived as geopolitical tensions saw oil prices move sharply higher into the weekend. Even with some improvement in the underlying growth versus inflation trade-off and signs of duration risk appetite finding better footing, the macro impediments to a sharp move lower in US yields remain largely in place. Heading into the June FOMC decision, we continue to think any sustai ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Mid-term Investment Strategy Conference held by CICC focused on the theme of "Resilience and Reconstruction," discussing key topics such as the outlook for the Chinese economy, global asset trends, and advancements in AI and high-end manufacturing [3][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical Economics - CICC's Chief Economist, Peng Wensheng, highlighted the shift towards geopolitical economics, emphasizing that the past 40 years of globalization and financialization are being reevaluated due to rising inequality and recent economic challenges in the U.S. [6][7]. - The macro impacts of geopolitical competition include increased supply constraints due to de-globalization, protectionism, and fragmented global supply chains, which harm economic efficiency [6]. - The importance of real assets is rising, driven by fiscal expansion and the need for de-financialization, with China holding unique advantages in green industries and AI [6]. Group 2: Monetary Order Reconstruction - Chief Strategy Analyst, Miao Yanliang, noted that the global monetary order is rapidly diversifying and fragmenting, which may reduce the impact of high U.S. Treasury yields on RMB assets [10]. - The anticipated influx of capital into Hong Kong stocks is supported by China's resilient fundamentals, trends in AI, low valuations, and under-allocation by foreign investors [10]. Group 3: Economic Recovery and Market Outlook - Chief Macro Analyst, Zhang Wenlang, observed a divergence in GDP growth and weak prices, attributing this to demand gaps and structural improvements in the economy [13]. - The outlook for the second half of 2025 suggests a continuation of "quasi-balance" growth, with potential structural highlights as the real estate sector's drag on the economy diminishes [13]. Group 4: U.S. Economic Rebalancing - U.S. Macro Chief Economist, Liu Zhengning, discussed the implications of U.S. tariff policies, indicating a shift from balanced to functional fiscal policies to stabilize the economy [16]. - The short-term effects of tariffs may lead to stagflation, with a potential for growth slowdown and temporary inflation increases in the U.S. economy [16]. Group 5: A-Share Market Resilience - Domestic Strategy Chief Analyst, Li Qiusuo, expressed confidence in the resilience of the A-share market, predicting a "steady then rising" trend in the second half of 2025, contingent on effective macro policies [17][21]. - Investment strategies should focus on certainty in uncertain environments, emphasizing opportunities in capacity cycles, high-growth sectors, and dividend-paying stocks [21]. Group 6: Global Market Trends - Overseas Strategy Chief Analyst, Liu Gang, noted a growing global consensus on "de-dollarization," although the extent may not meet expectations [22]. - The outlook for Hong Kong stocks suggests a structural market with potential for gains in sectors like technology and new consumption, despite overall index volatility [22]. Group 7: Digital Financial Services - CICC is enhancing its digital service capabilities through the "CICC Insight" platform, which provides comprehensive research and investment information to institutional investors [23]. - The company aims to leverage financial technology to improve service efficiency and support clients' investment decisions [23][24].

Monetary Policy and Financial Data - The central bank reported that as of the end of May 2025, the broad money supply (M2) reached 325.78 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9% [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) stood at 108.91 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [1] - In the first five months of 2025, RMB loans increased by 1.068 trillion yuan, while RMB deposits rose by 1.473 trillion yuan [1] - The total social financing stock at the end of May 2025 was 426.16 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.7% [1] - The net financing of corporate bonds was 908.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 288.4 billion yuan year-on-year, while government bonds saw a net financing of 6.31 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.81 trillion yuan year-on-year [1] Market Dynamics - The Beijing Stock Exchange announced a continuation of the exemption from bond trading fees to stimulate market activity, effective until December 31, 2026 [4] - The central bank will conduct a 400 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on June 16, 2025, to maintain liquidity in the banking system [5] - A 2,025 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation was conducted, resulting in a net injection of 675 billion yuan [6] Regional Developments - Hunan Province approved a budget adjustment plan that includes issuing 20 billion yuan in special bonds to address overdue payments to enterprises [7] - Qingdao City is restructuring several state-owned enterprises, planning to invest approximately 30 billion yuan in 87 major projects [9] Bond Issuance - Henan Capital Group has been approved to register 2 billion yuan in medium-term notes, with a validity period of two years [10] - Zhengzhou Development Investment Group has two bond projects under review by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, totaling 5 billion yuan [11] - The issuance of 5 billion yuan in corporate bonds by Shangqiu Railway Investment Company was completed at an interest rate of 2.47% [13] - Luoyang Urban-Rural Construction Investment Group completed the issuance of 3 billion yuan in corporate bonds at an interest rate of 2.78% [14] - Jiyuan Jikang Technology Company plans to issue 1.5 billion yuan in corporate bonds [15] Credit Ratings and Regulatory Actions - The central bank approved the issuance of technology innovation bonds by several financial institutions, including CICC and CITIC Securities, with amounts up to 150 billion yuan [16] - The China Interbank Market Dealers Association has reduced or canceled 6.16 billion yuan in debt financing tool quotas for three companies [21] Market Sentiment - According to CITIC Research, the average issuance interest rate for technology innovation bonds in May was 1.77%, marking a new low and indicating high investor sentiment [24]

Core Insights - Todd Eagle, a prominent real estate banker at Goldman Sachs, has left the firm to join Jefferies as the US head of real estate banking [1][2] - Eagle's departure marks a significant shift in the real estate banking landscape, as he has been a key figure at Goldman Sachs for over three decades [3][5] Company Transition - Eagle's name has been removed from Goldman Sachs' internal staff directory, indicating his official exit from the firm [1] - He will report to Michael Bluhm at Jefferies, who oversees global real estate, gaming, and lodging [2] Career Background - Todd Eagle has a long history with Goldman Sachs, having first joined as an analyst in 1990 and later becoming a managing director [3][5] - He has previously left Goldman twice, once for business school and again to focus on real estate investments, before returning to the firm [5] - Eagle has extensive experience advising on mergers, acquisitions, and financing opportunities in the real estate sector, particularly during his time in London [6]