Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a downturn, with major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq showing negative futures [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5% to 47,085.24, the S&P 500 dropped 1.2% to 6,771.55, and the Nasdaq decreased 2.04% to 23,348.63 [2] Company Performance Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) - AMD reported third-quarter revenue of $9.25 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $8.74 billion [3] - Adjusted earnings per share were $1.20, surpassing estimates of $1.16, driven by growth in the AI data center business [3] - AMD shares fell 3.70% to close at $250.05, with after-hours trading showing a further decline of 4.7% to $238.20 [2] Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) - Super Micro Computer reported earnings of 35 cents per share, missing the expected 40 cents, leading to a stock decline [4] - Quarterly revenue was $5.01 billion, below analyst estimates of $5.99 billion and down from $5.93 billion a year earlier [4] - The stock dropped 6.40% to $47.50, with after-hours trading showing a decline of 9.5% to $42.99 [3] Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) - Upstart reported earnings of 52 cents per share, beating the estimate of 42 cents, but revenue fell short of expectations [6] - The company projected fourth-quarter revenue of $288 million, below the $303.61 million analyst estimate, and cut its fiscal 2025 revenue outlook to $1.03 billion from $1.05 billion [6] - Shares slid 2.73% to $46.24, plummeting 15.3% to $39.15 in extended trading [5] Pinterest Inc. (PINS) - Pinterest reported third-quarter revenue of $1.05 billion, aligning with analyst estimates, but adjusted earnings of 38 cents per share missed the expected 42 cents [8] - The company forecasted fourth-quarter revenue between $1.31 billion and $1.34 billion, slightly below estimates of $1.34 billion [8] - Shares decreased by 2.39% to $32.91, dropping sharply by 20.09% to $26.30 in after-hours trading [7] Rivian Automotive (RIVN) - Rivian reported third-quarter revenue of $1.56 billion, up 78% year-over-year and above the $1.50 billion estimate [11] - Automotive revenue rose 47% to $1.14 billion, while software and services revenue surged 324% to $416 million [11] - The stock fell 5.23% to $12.50, but gained 3.2% to $12.90 in extended trading [10]

Core Insights - Forge Global Holdings, Inc. will report its Third Quarter Fiscal 2025 Financial Results on November 14, 2025 [1] Company Overview - Forge is a leading provider of marketplace infrastructure, data services, and technology and investment solutions for the private market [2] Upcoming Events - CEO Kelly Rodriques will speak at Fortune Brainstorm Tech 2025, scheduled for September 8-10, 2025 [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Upstart reported a total revenue of approximately $277 million for Q3 2025, representing a 71% year-on-year increase and an 8% sequential increase [23] - GAAP net income for Q3 was approximately $32 million, significantly ahead of expectations, reflecting strong performance on net interest income and reduced fixed costs [26] - The average loan size decreased by 12% from the prior quarter to approximately $6,670, influenced by borrowers requesting lower amounts and a shift towards smaller loan products [24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Transaction volume across Upstart's platform reached approximately 428,000, up 128% year-on-year and 15% sequentially, with around 300,000 new borrowers [24] - New products, including small-dollar loans, auto, and home loans, accounted for nearly 12% of originations and 22% of new borrowers in Q3, with transaction volume for these products growing approximately 300% year-on-year [8][9] - The auto retail business saw transaction volume grow more than 70% sequentially, with significant improvements in software and expansion into four new states [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consumer demand for Upstart's services continued to grow, with over two million applications submitted in Q3, a 30% increase from Q2, marking the highest level in over three years [6] - The Upstart Macro Index (UMI) showed a modest increase in July and August, which led to a temporary reduction in approval rates and an increase in interest rates [6][8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Upstart aims to leverage AI technology to lead the trillion-dollar credit industry, focusing on rapid growth, profitability, and AI leadership [5] - The company is transitioning several new products from R&D to scale-up phases, with expectations for significant growth in 2026 [27] - Upstart is committed to maintaining credit performance while achieving transaction volume targets, emphasizing the importance of precise risk pricing [8][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strength of consumer credit, noting no material deterioration and signs of improvement [8] - The company anticipates a favorable economic backdrop for credit, with expectations of improved consumer financial health and lower investor return requirements due to potential rate cuts [30] - Upstart plans to moderate take rates to increase origination volumes and repeat transactions, aiming for a strong finish to 2025 and a promising 2026 [30][31] Other Important Information - Upstart's contribution margin for Q3 was 57%, slightly down from the previous quarter due to lower conversion rates impacting acquisition costs [25] - The company ended Q3 with approximately $1.2 billion in loans held directly on its balance sheet, up from just over $1 billion in Q2 [26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Application demand and guidance - Dan Dolev inquired about the strong application demand and how it aligns with the guidance provided, which was below expectations. Management noted that while applications grew significantly, the model's conservatism impacted transaction volume [34][35] Question: Impact of recent auto industry events - Kyle Peterson asked if recent negative credit events in the auto sector affected Upstart's expansion plans. Management confirmed no direct impact but acknowledged increased diligence in underwriting [39][40] Question: Quality of leads from marketing improvements - Peter Christiansen questioned the quality of leads following marketing enhancements. Management indicated that while application volume increased, the model's conservatism affected conversion rates [45][46] Question: Repayment speeds and credit implications - Mihir Bhatia asked about the increase in repayment speeds and its implications. Management suggested that faster repayments could indicate improving consumer health but may lead to reduced interest income in the short term [72][74] Question: Conversion rate drivers - Reggie Smith inquired about the factors affecting the conversion rate. Management clarified that the primary driver was the model's conservatism, which influenced approval rates and loan sizes [63][79]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, total revenue reached approximately $277 million, reflecting a 71% year-on-year increase and an 8% sequential increase [23] - GAAP net income for Q3 was approximately $32 million, significantly ahead of expectations, driven by strong net interest income and reduced fixed costs [26] - The contribution margin was 57%, down approximately one percentage point from the prior quarter due to lower conversion rates impacting acquisition costs [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Transaction volume across the platform was approximately 428,000, up 128% year-on-year and 15% sequentially, representing around 300,000 new borrowers [24] - New products, including small-dollar loans, auto, and home loans, accounted for nearly 12% of originations and 22% of new borrowers in Q3, with transaction volume for these products growing around 300% year-on-year [8][9] - The average loan size decreased to approximately $6,670, a 12% decline from the prior quarter, influenced by borrower requests for lower amounts and a shift towards smaller loan products [24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consumer demand remained strong, with over two million applications submitted in Q3, a 30% increase from Q2, marking the highest level in over three years [6] - The Upstart Macro Index (UMI) showed a modest increase in July and August, which led to a temporary reduction in approval rates and an increase in interest rates [7][8] - Despite macroeconomic caution, there were no signs of material deterioration in consumer credit strength, with indications of improvement noted [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to leverage AI technology to lead the trillion-dollar credit industry, focusing on rapid growth, profitability, and AI leadership [5] - Upstart is expanding its auto retail business, having doubled the number of lending rooftops and achieved over 70% sequential growth in transaction volume [9] - The company is also working on a hybrid product called an auto-secured personal loan, which is gaining traction [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate the macroeconomic environment, emphasizing the importance of precise risk pricing [8] - The outlook for Q4 includes expected total revenues of approximately $288 million, with a focus on maintaining profitability and managing costs effectively [31] - Management anticipates that improvements in repayment speeds could lead to a long-anticipated tailwind for growth prospects heading into next year [23] Other Important Information - The company has added seven new bank and credit union partners in Q3, achieving a new all-time high in monthly available funding [10] - Upstart's platform has generated over $50 billion in AI-powered loans since inception, showcasing the strength of its AI capabilities [12] - The company is focused on reducing R&D-related balance sheet holdings and transitioning new products into the scale-up phase [26][27] Q&A Session Summary Question: Application demand and guidance - A participant inquired about the strong application demand and how it aligns with the guidance provided, which was below expectations. Management noted that while applications grew significantly, the model's conservatism impacted transaction volume [34][35] Question: Impact of recent credit events in the auto sector - Another participant asked if recent negative credit events in the auto sector affected expansion plans. Management confirmed that there was no direct impact, although increased diligence was observed in the market [39][40] Question: Quality of leads from marketing improvements - A question was raised regarding the quality of leads generated from new marketing capabilities. Management indicated that while application volume increased, the model's conservatism led to a lower conversion rate [46][48] Question: Repayment speeds and credit implications - A participant asked about the increase in repayment speeds and its implications for credit performance. Management suggested that faster repayments could indicate improving consumer health, although it may lead to lower interest income in the short term [72][74] Question: Conversion rate drivers - A question was posed about the factors affecting the conversion rate. Management clarified that the primary driver was the model's conservatism, which impacted approvals and loan sizes [64][65] Question: HELOC product economics - A participant inquired about the economics of the HELOC product. Management indicated that while take rates would be healthy, they would be more modest compared to personal loans, but with larger loan sizes [82]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Upstart reported total revenue of approximately $277 million for Q3 2025, representing a 71% year-on-year increase and an 8% sequential increase [23] - GAAP net income for Q3 was approximately $32 million, significantly ahead of expectations, reflecting strong performance in net interest income and reduced fixed costs [26] - The contribution margin, a non-GAAP metric, was 57% in Q3, down approximately one percentage point from the prior quarter due to lower conversion rates [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Transaction volume across Upstart's platform was approximately 428,000, up 128% year-on-year and 15% sequentially, with about 300,000 new borrowers [24] - New products, including small-dollar loans, auto, and home loans, accounted for almost 12% of originations and 22% of new borrowers in Q3, with transaction volume for these products growing around 300% year-on-year [6][9] - The auto retail business saw transaction volume grow more than 70% sequentially, with significant improvements in software and expansion into four new states [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consumer demand remained strong, with over two million applications submitted in Q3, up over 30% from Q2, marking the highest level in over three years [5] - The Upstart Macro Index (UMI) showed a modest uptick in July and August, which led to a temporary reduction in approval rates and an increase in interest rates [5][21] - The average loan size decreased by 12% from the prior quarter, influenced by borrowers requesting lower amounts and a shift towards smaller loan products [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Upstart aims to leverage its AI technology to lead the trillion-dollar credit industry, focusing on rapid growth, profitability, and AI leadership [4] - The company is transitioning multiple new products from R&D to scale-up phase, with expectations of tangible outcomes from third-party capital arrangements by the end of the year [27] - Upstart's strategy includes maintaining a disciplined approach to underwriting risk while capitalizing on improving credit health indicators [21][29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strength of Upstart's AI models to respond to macroeconomic changes, emphasizing that recent model conservatism was a temporary adjustment [13][19] - The company anticipates a favorable economic backdrop for credit in Q4, with expectations of improved consumer financial health and lower investor return requirements [28][29] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining credit performance as a priority for long-term business success [21] Other Important Information - Upstart's platform has generated over $50 billion in AI-powered loans since inception, showcasing the effectiveness of its AI technology [11] - The company has added seven new bank and credit union partners in Q3, achieving a new all-time high in monthly available funding [10] - Upstart's unique partnerships allow it to offer competitive rates, with some products providing rates up to 300 basis points better than other fintechs [8] Q&A Session Summary Question: Application demand and guidance - Management noted a 30% quarter-on-quarter growth in applications, highlighting that the model's conservatism impacted transaction volume despite strong demand [34][36] Question: Impact of recent credit events in the auto sector - Management confirmed that recent negative credit events did not directly impact Upstart's expansion plans, as they have rigorous underwriting processes in place [38][40] Question: Superprime segment performance - Management acknowledged that model tightness affected originations in the superprime segment, which is also highly competitive [41][42] Question: Quality of leads from marketing improvements - Management indicated that while application volume increased, the model's conservatism led to a lower likelihood of approval, affecting conversion rates [45][46] Question: Balance sheet expansion and funding partner conversations - Management expressed optimism about ongoing conversations with funding partners, noting that appetite remains strong despite longer diligence processes [57][59] Question: Factors affecting conversion rates - Management clarified that the primary driver of the conversion rate decline was the model's conservatism, with no other significant factors at play [62][63]

Q3 2025 Performance Highlights - Revenue reached $200.1 million[12] - Gross Margin was 62.3%[12] - Net Income was $29.6 million[12] - Total Payment Volume increased by 26.4% to $13.9 billion[14] - Revenue Less Ancillary Services (RLAS) grew by 28.2% to $194.1 million[14] - Adjusted EBITDA was $57.1 million, representing 29.4% of RLAS[14] Q3 2025 Performance vs Guidance - Total RLAS exceeded guidance by $13.0 million[15] - Year-over-year RLAS Spot Growth beat guidance by 860 bps[15] - Year-over-year RLAS FXN Growth beat guidance by 930 bps[15] - Sertifi Revenue was $12.9 million, exceeding guidance by $2.4 million[15] - Adjusted EBITDA exceeded guidance by $4.8 million[15] FY 2025 Outlook - The company raised FY 2025 FX-Neutral Revenue Less Ancillary Services growth guidance to 23-25%[76] - The company expects Sertifi to contribute $42-44 million in revenue[76] - The company raised Adjusted EBITDA Margin Expansion guidance to 330-370 bps[76]

Core Insights - Upstart Holdings, Inc. reported third-quarter earnings that missed revenue estimates, leading to a decline in stock price [1][5] Financial Performance - Quarterly earnings were 52 cents per share, exceeding the Street estimate of 42 cents [2] - Quarterly revenue was $277.1 million, falling short of the consensus estimate of $279.62 million [2] - Total loan originations reached approximately $2.9 billion, representing an 80% year-over-year increase [3][4] Operational Metrics - The company originated 428,056 loans, marking a 128% increase year-over-year, with a conversion rate of 20.6%, up from 16.3% [3] - The CEO highlighted a sixfold sequential increase in GAAP net income and 71% growth in revenue year-over-year [4] Future Outlook - For the fourth quarter, Upstart anticipates revenue of $288 million, below the analyst estimate of $303.61 million [5] - The fiscal 2025 revenue outlook has been revised down from $1.05 billion to $1.03 billion, compared to the previous estimate of $1.05 billion [5]

Q3 2025 earnings November 4, 2025 Forward looking statements This presentation contains "forward-looking" statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, including but not limited to, information or predictions concerning our future financial performance, including our financial outlook for Q4 2025 and the full fiscal year 2025 under the heading "Outlook" and management's estimates under the heading " ...

Core Insights - Crypto.com has formed a strategic partnership with MyPrize to introduce prediction market services within its social gaming network, marking a unique integration of social gaming and prediction markets [1] - The prediction market sector is experiencing significant growth, attracting interest from both cryptocurrency-native businesses and external firms seeking partnerships [2] - Recent initiatives by Crypto.com include a partnership with Hollywood.com for entertainment-related prediction markets and a collaboration with Underdog to incorporate prediction markets into fantasy sports [3] Company Developments - The partnership with MyPrize aims to create a unified platform for users to engage in social gaming and prediction markets, allowing trades on outcomes in sports, politics, and cryptocurrency [1] - Crypto.com has launched a new Level Up rewards system featuring subscription tiers and zero trading fees, enhancing user engagement [3] - The company has made strides in regulatory compliance, filing for a National Trust Bank Charter and obtaining a comprehensive set of derivatives trading licenses from the CFTC [4]

Core Insights - The U.S. IPO market in 2025 has seen significant activity with notable companies such as Klarna, eToro, and Chime going public [1] Company Highlights - Klarna, eToro, and Chime are among the household names that have recently entered the public market, indicating a trend of established brands seeking to capitalize on favorable market conditions [1]