Market Overview - US stock futures experienced a significant decline, with Nasdaq 100 futures dropping 1%, S&P 500 futures falling approximately 0.7%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures sliding 0.3% [1] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, faced intense selling pressure, with gold briefly falling by 10% and silver sinking over 15%, marking a 30% drop in its biggest single-day decline on record [2] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin fell below the $80,000 mark for the first time since April, trading just below $77,000 per token [3] - The dollar strengthened against major currencies, particularly those linked to commodity prices, as a result of the decline in precious metals [3][10] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve has raised speculation regarding future interest rate movements, with traders anticipating two rate cuts by the end of the year [4] Corporate Earnings and Economic Data - Over 100 S&P 500 companies are set to report earnings this week, including major firms like Amazon, Alphabet, Disney, Palantir, and Advanced Micro Devices [6] - The upcoming January jobs report is expected to show an addition of 65,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate projected to remain at 4.4% [6] Nvidia and AI Sector - Nvidia's stock fell nearly 2% after CEO Jensen Huang clarified that the proposed $100 billion investment in OpenAI was not a firm commitment [7] - The broader artificial intelligence trade is facing uncertainty, impacting investor sentiment towards Nvidia and other tech stocks [5] Individual Stock Movements - Estée Lauder's stock rose by 6% following a partnership announcement with SalonCentric for product distribution [8] - GameStop's stock continued to rise, driven by CEO Ryan Cohen's plans for expansion through acquisitions [9] - Newmont's stock fell over 3% as gold prices dropped below $5,000 [9]

Core Viewpoint - e.l.f. Beauty has shown resilience in its stock performance despite previous challenges, with a significant recovery in early 2026, indicating potential for future growth [1][2]. Financial Performance - e.l.f. reported a 14% increase in sales, reaching $343.9 million for the quarter ending September 30, 2025, despite facing tariff-related challenges [4]. - The company's gross margin decreased by 165 basis points to 69%, while selling, general, and administrative expenses rose by 24%, leading to an 84% decline in overall profit to $3 billion compared to $19 billion in the prior year [4]. - Adjusted earnings showed a less severe decline of under 10%, suggesting that the core business remains relatively stable [4]. Market Sentiment - Investors are reassessing e.l.f.'s valuation, with the stock up 17% at the start of 2026, outperforming the S&P 500, which rose less than 2% [1][2]. - The stock is currently trading at 27 times its estimated future earnings, which may appear high but could improve with favorable economic conditions [6]. - The demand for e.l.f.'s low-priced items has remained strong, indicating resilience against economic uncertainties and tariffs [6]. Future Outlook - If tariffs are deemed illegal and removed, e.l.f. could significantly benefit, but even without such developments, the brand's popularity among younger consumers positions it well for long-term growth [5].

WASHINGTON, Jan 30 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday said he will nominate former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh to return as Fed Chair in May, as the president continues his campaign for lower U.S. interest rates. Here are five key things to know about Warsh: YOUNGEST-EVER FED GOVERNOR, CRISIS-TESTED Warsh, 55, ​joined the Fed Board of Governors in 2006 at age 35 as its youngest member after serving on former president George W. Bush's National Economic Council. He ‌remained at ...

Group 1: Tesla's Robo-Taxi Developments - Tesla's robo-taxis without safety drivers are now operating in Austin, Texas, marking a significant step in their autonomous vehicle journey, although it is not seen as a watershed moment compared to competitors like Waymo and Zoox [2][5] - The company has faced challenges, including reported accidents with vehicles even when safety drivers were present, raising questions about the safety and readiness of their technology [3][11] - Tesla's partnership with Lemonade for insurance offers a pay-per-mile product that could reduce insurance costs by 50% when full self-driving is activated, indicating a trend towards smarter insurance solutions in the automotive industry [6][7][8] Group 2: Subscription Model and Consumer Preferences - Tesla is transitioning to a subscription model for its Full Self-Driving (FSD) feature, charging $100 per month, which raises questions about consumer acceptance and the potential impact on revenue growth [12][13] - The shift from upfront payments to subscriptions may reflect challenges in consumer willingness to pay large sums for features that competitors include as standard [13][14] - The subscription model's success is uncertain, as consumer preferences may resist paying for features that have traditionally been included in the purchase price of vehicles [12][13] Group 3: Berkshire Hathaway's Strategic Moves - Greg Abel, the new CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, is reportedly unwinding the Kraft Heinz deal, which may signal a shift in strategy and a response to previous management decisions [17][18] - Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on approximately $382 billion in cash, prompting discussions about potential acquisitions to enhance portfolio performance [18][36] - The company may consider acquiring firms that align with its focus on American businesses, such as Sysco or United Rentals, to capitalize on infrastructure investments [36][37] Group 4: NYSE and Tokenization of Stocks - The New York Stock Exchange is exploring the tokenization of stocks, which could enable 24/7 trading and reduce restrictions on trading, potentially transforming the trading landscape [47][48] - Tokenization may lead to instant settlement and lower trading costs, but it also raises regulatory concerns and questions about market dynamics and price discovery [48][49] - The potential for tokenization extends beyond stocks to other assets, such as real estate, indicating a broader trend towards increased liquidity in various markets [53][54]

Core Insights - Estee Lauder Companies Inc. is expected to report its second-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on February 5, 2026, with projected revenues of $4.22 billion, reflecting a 5.3% increase year-over-year, and earnings per share (EPS) of 83 cents, indicating a 33.9% growth from the previous year [1][9] Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 82.6%, with the last quarter's earnings surpassing estimates by 100% [2] - The company currently has an Earnings ESP of +6.62% and a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), suggesting a favorable outlook for the upcoming earnings report [4][3] Market Trends - Estee Lauder is experiencing improving demand trends, particularly in the fragrance segment, supported by better retail sales excluding travel retail, despite ongoing pressures in Mainland China and Asia travel retail [5][9] - The company's Profit Recovery and Growth Plan is contributing to margin expansion and earnings growth, aided by targeted cost reductions and improved operational efficiency [7][11] Stock Performance - Over the past three months, Estee Lauder's stock has increased by 18.1%, outperforming the Cosmetics industry (6.2%), the broader Zacks Consumer Staples sector (6.4%), and the S&P 500 (3.2%) [8] - The stock is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 43.99X, significantly higher than the industry average of 29.59X, reflecting investor expectations for improved performance [10] Investment Outlook - Estee Lauder's strong brand leadership and recovery potential in earnings make it an attractive option for investors looking for exposure in the prestige beauty sector, despite its premium valuation compared to peers [11]

Core Insights - The essence of the article highlights the growing popularity of "next-drop" skincare products in China, with projections indicating that the market could exceed 70 billion yuan by 2025, prompting brands to compete for market share in this segment [1] Industry Trends - The domestic skin repair market is experiencing a trend towards "demand segmentation and professional care," leading to consumer confusion due to the complexity of skincare routines and ingredient compatibility [1] - The "oil-based skincare" concept is well-accepted, yet existing oil products often have drawbacks such as heaviness and potential for acne, which the new product aims to address [2] Product Features - The hfp suspended essence utilizes microencapsulation technology to create oil beads that release upon application, ensuring freshness and a lightweight feel, making it suitable for sensitive skin [2] - Key ingredients include sea buckthorn oil and jojoba seed oil, known for their high nutritional value and skin compatibility, which help in skin repair and moisture retention [2] - The product also incorporates patented ingredients like sea glass and sodium hyaluronate to smoothen skin and reduce fine lines, along with various plant extracts to soothe sensitivity and repair the skin barrier [2] Usage Scenarios - The hfp suspended essence can be used in multiple ways, such as a quick soothing treatment, a makeup primer, or mixed with creams for enhanced effects [3] - The product has been officially launched on the brand's mini-program and major e-commerce platforms, receiving positive feedback from initial users [3]

Core Insights - The essence of the article highlights the growing popularity of "next-drop" serums in the skincare market, with projections indicating that the Chinese next-drop skincare market may exceed 70 billion yuan by 2025 [1] - The article discusses the launch of hfp's new product, the soothing and nourishing next-drop serum, aimed at sensitive skin, which is part of the brand's strategy to strengthen its position in this competitive segment [1] Industry Trends - The domestic skin repair market is experiencing a trend of "demand segmentation and professional care," leading to consumer confusion due to the complexity of skincare routines and ingredient compatibility [3] - There is a rising demand for products that combine multiple skincare benefits, such as repair and wrinkle reduction, which hfp aims to address with its new serum [3] Product Features - The hfp next-drop serum utilizes dual oil microencapsulation technology, incorporating sea buckthorn oil and jojoba seed oil, along with patented tightening essences, to provide a dual-function serum for sensitive skin [3][5] - The product addresses common issues with oil-based skincare, such as heaviness and potential breakouts, by employing microencapsulation technology that ensures freshness and a lightweight feel [5] - The serum includes additional beneficial extracts, such as purple grass and centella asiatica, to enhance skin soothing and barrier repair while balancing oil and moisture levels [7] Usage and Availability - The hfp next-drop serum can be used in various ways, including as an emergency soothing treatment, a makeup primer, or mixed with creams for added benefits [9] - The product has been officially launched on the brand's mini-program and major e-commerce platforms, receiving positive initial feedback from users [9]

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates Coty (COTY) to report a year-over-year increase in earnings despite lower revenues for the quarter ended December 2025, with actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Coty is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.18 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +63.6%, while revenues are projected to be $1.66 billion, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous year [3]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 2.72% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a positive reassessment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that the Most Accurate Estimate for Coty is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -0.87%, suggesting a bearish outlook from analysts [12]. - Coty currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, making it challenging to predict an earnings beat conclusively [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Coty was expected to earn $0.15 per share but only achieved $0.12, resulting in a surprise of -20.00% [13]. - The company has not surpassed consensus EPS estimates in any of the last four quarters [14]. Industry Comparison - e.l.f. Beauty (ELF), another player in the cosmetics industry, is expected to report earnings of $0.72 per share, indicating a year-over-year change of -2.7%, with revenues projected at $459.86 million, up 29.4% from the previous year [18]. - The consensus EPS estimate for e.l.f. Beauty has been revised down by 2.3% over the last 30 days, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -1.81% [19].

Core Insights - Estee Lauder Companies Inc. and e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. are key players in the cosmetics industry, competing across overlapping product categories while operating at different market segments [1][2] - The cosmetics industry is evolving due to digital engagement, changing consumer preferences, and a focus on value, innovation, and brand differentiation [1] Estee Lauder Overview - Estee Lauder has a market capitalization of approximately $41.3 billion and is recognized as a leader in the prestige beauty sector with a diverse portfolio [2] - The company has shown a return to organic sales growth, with a 3% increase in organic net sales in Q1 of fiscal 2026 and a 300 basis point expansion in adjusted operating margin to 7.3% [3][9] - Adjusted gross margin improved by 60 basis points to 73.3%, driven by procurement efficiencies and reduced promotional intensity [4] - Estee Lauder is gaining market share in key regions such as Mainland China, the U.S., and parts of Western Europe, with strong performance from brands like La Mer and TOM FORD [5] - Product innovation is crucial for Estee Lauder's growth, with new launches enhancing brand relevance and consumer engagement [6] e.l.f. Beauty Overview - e.l.f. Beauty, valued at around $5.1 billion, focuses on affordable, trend-driven products and has achieved its 27th consecutive quarter of net sales growth, with a 14% increase to $343.9 million in Q2 of fiscal 2026 [7][9] - The company gained 140 basis points of market share in its core brand during Q2, reflecting its ability to attract value-conscious consumers [8] - e.l.f. Beauty's growth is supported by expanding distribution and a digitally native operating model, with management projecting a net sales increase of 18-20% for fiscal 2026 [11] Financial Performance and Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Estee Lauder indicates a year-over-year sales growth of 4.6% and an EPS increase of 43.7% for the current fiscal year [12] - For e.l.f. Beauty, the current fiscal-year sales estimate suggests a 19.3% increase, while EPS is expected to decrease by 15.3% [14] - Over the past year, Estee Lauder's shares have increased by 39.3%, outperforming the industry growth of 13.2%, while e.l.f. Beauty's shares have declined by 19.8% [15] Valuation and Investment Outlook - Estee Lauder has a forward P/E ratio of 43.8, above its one-year median, while e.l.f. Beauty's forward P/E ratio is 24.71, below its median [17] - Estee Lauder presents a more compelling risk-reward profile due to its operational turnaround and strong earnings growth outlook, while e.l.f. Beauty faces rising margin pressures [19] - Estee Lauder holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), whereas e.l.f. Beauty has a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [20]

Group 1 - MAC Cosmetics' senior vice president and global general manager, Aïda Moudachirou-Rébois, is leaving her position, which she took on in 2024, amidst several executive changes at MAC and its parent company, Estée Lauder [1][2] - The makeup category at Estée Lauder experienced a 1 percent decline in reported earnings for the quarter ending September 30, with an operating loss of $15 million, despite new product launches and increased brand awareness from the "I Only Wear MAC" campaign [3] - MAC's decline in face products and overall retail softness contributed to a 5 percent drop in makeup sales, as noted in Estée Lauder's annual report [3] Group 2 - Lisa Sequino has been appointed as the president of Lauder's makeup brand cluster, overseeing MAC, Bobbi Brown, Too Faced, Smashbox, and Glamglow, with the latter three rumored to be for sale [4] - Glamglow has ceased its e-commerce operations in favor of selling through Amazon, indicating potential shifts in brand strategy [4]