Market Overview - The stock market had a rocky start in December, with major averages closing at the lows of the day, influenced by a sell-off in Bitcoin and the broader crypto market [2][20] - The Dow closed down 0.9%, while the Russell 2000 underperformed, down 1.25% [21][23] - The rise in bond yields, particularly an increase of eight basis points in the 10-year yield, contributed to the market's decline [24][28] Prediction Markets and Consumer Risks - Prediction markets are experiencing significant growth, with platforms like Poly Market and Kelshi attracting major investments, raising concerns about consumer credit risk [4][9] - The rise of these markets may lead to consumers overextending themselves financially, particularly among younger and lower-income demographics [15][16] - Lenders may face new risks as traditional underwriting models do not account for the rapid growth of online betting and prediction markets [11][14] Holiday Shopping Trends - The holiday shopping season is underway, with Cyber Monday expected to see spending exceed $14 billion [38] - Strong performance was noted in young fashion retailers and beauty specialty stores, with Macy's showing positive store traffic despite a slight decline [39][41] - Retailers managed inventory effectively during Black Friday, with solid stock levels observed, setting a positive outlook for the holiday season [48][49] Retailer Strategies - Macy's is focusing on enhancing customer service and staffing to differentiate itself from value channels, which is crucial for maintaining competitive advantage [52] - The trend of digital shopping is growing, with consumers utilizing tools like chat GPT for comparison shopping, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [54] - Retailers are emphasizing in-store experiences and promotions to attract customers, blending online and offline shopping experiences [55]

Core Viewpoint - Dillard's (DDS) is highlighted as a strong retail stock to consider, especially following record Black Friday sales in the U.S., and it currently holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) due to impressive earnings and optimism related to Federal Reserve rate cuts [1]. Company Performance - Dillard's stock has increased over 50% year-to-date, driven by earnings that have consistently surpassed analyst expectations [1]. - The company trades at a high price of over $600 per share, but its profitability and digital presence suggest potential for further growth [2]. Business Model - Dillard's unique business model, which involves owning most of its stores rather than leasing, contributes to its exceptional profitability by reducing rent expenses and stabilizing costs [5]. - The company has pursued a long-term, debt-averse expansion strategy focused on real estate ownership since its founding in 1938 [5]. Financial Metrics - Dillard's boasts a 20% return on invested capital (ROIC), significantly above the preferred range of 10-15% for department store chains [6]. - The company has a free cash flow conversion rate of 108%, indicating strong ability to convert profits into cash for reinvestment or shareholder returns [6]. Earnings Projections - EPS revisions for fiscal 2026 have increased by 5% in the last 30 days, from $30.92 to $32.61, while FY27 EPS estimates have risen over 6% from $28.10 to $29.93 [7]. - Current EPS estimates for the upcoming quarters are 9.84 for Q1 2026 and 9.20 for Q2 2026, reflecting positive trends in earnings expectations [8]. Valuation - Dillard's stock trades at a forward earnings multiple of 20X, which is considered reasonable compared to its profitability, and it is at a slight P/E discount to Kohl's and not at a stretched premium to Macy's [8]. Market Outlook - Dillard's is positioned to benefit from a record-breaking holiday shopping season, as indicated by strong Black Friday sales, suggesting continued strong performance in the retail sector [11].

Core Viewpoint - UBS has raised its price target on Macy's to $7.00 from $6.50 while maintaining a Sell rating [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast - UBS's recent channel checks indicated stronger-than-expected third-quarter sales trends, prompting an increase in Q3 earnings forecast by $0.18 to a loss of $0.12 per share, with an expectation of an EPS beat of $0.03 [2] - Despite the improved quarterly outlook, Macy's is likely to reaffirm its fiscal 2025 guidance due to ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs and macroeconomic conditions [2] Group 2: Market Expectations - The market seems to anticipate a similar stance from Macy's management, which reduces the likelihood of significant revisions to consensus estimates or major movements in the stock's valuation multiple following the earnings report [3] - There is potential upside if Macy's provides more positive commentary on early fourth-quarter trends, but elevated bullish sentiment could turn the Q3 release into a "market-clearing event" [3] - The options market is pricing in a ±10.5% move on earnings, which is higher than Macy's historical average of 7.8%, indicating expectations for increased post-print volatility [3]

Core Viewpoint - Dillard's (DDS) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), indicating a positive outlook based on rising earnings estimates, which significantly influence stock prices [1][2]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Price Impact - The Zacks rating system emphasizes the importance of changing earnings estimates in determining stock price movements, making it a valuable tool for investors [2][3]. - An increase in earnings estimates typically leads to higher fair value calculations by institutional investors, resulting in stock price movements [3]. Business Improvement Indicators - The upgrade in Dillard's rating reflects an improvement in the company's underlying business, suggesting that investors may respond positively by driving the stock price higher [4]. Earnings Estimate Revisions - For the fiscal year ending January 2026, Dillard's is expected to earn $32.61 per share, unchanged from the previous year, but the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased by 5.1% over the past three months [7]. Zacks Rank System Overview - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with Zacks Rank 1 stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [6]. - Dillard's upgrade to Zacks Rank 1 places it in the top 5% of Zacks-covered stocks, indicating strong potential for near-term price appreciation [9].

Core Insights - Three stocks are highlighted with strong momentum characteristics and a Zacks Rank of 1, indicating potential investment opportunities for investors [1][2][3] Company Summaries - **Dillard's, Inc. (DDS)**: - Zacks Consensus Estimate for current year earnings increased by 5.2% over the last 60 days - Shares gained 21.2% over the last three months, while the S&P 500 declined by 7.6% - Momentum Score: A [1] - **Installed Building Products, Inc. (IBP)**: - Zacks Consensus Estimate for current year earnings increased by 8.6% over the last 60 days - Shares gained 69.2% over the past six months, compared to the S&P 500's decline of 16.8% - Momentum Score: A [2] - **Cirrus Logic, Inc. (CRUS)**: - Zacks Consensus Estimate for current year earnings increased by 9.3% over the last 60 days - Shares gained 23.1% over the last six months, while the S&P 500 declined by 16.8% - Momentum Score: B [3]

Welcome to Yahoo Finance's flagship show, Morning Brief, presented by Robin Hood, the home to commission free trading. I'm Julie Hyman. Let's get to the three things you need to know today.First up, US stock futures kicking off December trading in the red. Equities are sliding with risk assets after the S&P 500 barely managed to eek out a seventh straight month of gains. Crypto in particular is under pressure this morning.Bitcoin falling below $86,000 per token, bringing momentum back to the selloff that ha ...

Retail Sector - Black Friday retail sales reached a record $11.8 billion in online spending, an increase of 11.8% year-over-year, with expectations for Cyber Monday to surpass this figure at $14.2 billion [2][4] - Macy's is expected to report a quarterly loss of 14 cents per share, a significant decline of 450% compared to the previous year [4] - Analysts are optimistic about retail performance, noting a potential shift in consumer spending dynamics and the impact of credit card debt on future sales [16][19] Technology Sector - Salesforce is set to announce its Q3 results, with expectations of solid growth and steady demand, although profitability may see only minor changes [6] - The acquisition of Informatica is projected to boost Salesforce's revenue by approximately $1.7 billion over the next year, but increased spending on AI products may affect profit margins [7] - Crowdstrike's Q3 results are anticipated to benefit from heightened demand for cybersecurity products due to rising global threat incidents [5] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin has experienced a significant decline, trading below $87,000, with a drop of over 5% recently, reflecting a broader risk-off sentiment among investors [9][10] - The slowdown in inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and a downgrade of the USDT stablecoin's stability rating have contributed to the negative sentiment in the crypto market [10][11] - The People's Bank of China's warning about the risks associated with virtual currencies has further exacerbated the selloff in cryptocurrencies [11] Economic Indicators - The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), is expected to remain steady at 0.3% for total PCE and 2% for core PCE on a month-over-month basis [8] - Auto sales data for November is anticipated to show a slight increase to 15.4 million, indicating stable consumer demand for new vehicles [8] Market Outlook - Predictions for the S&P 500 in 2026 range from 7,500 to 8,000 points, with expectations of robust earnings and growing valuations, although concerns about inflation and the job market persist [53][55] - The healthcare sector is seeing increased inflows as investors shift away from large-cap tech, with strong performance noted in drug and medical device companies [40][41]

Core Viewpoint - Macy's Inc. is approaching its Q3 earnings report on December 3, with the stock currently experiencing a bullish Cakra breakout within its Adhishthana cycle, indicating potential positive momentum ahead [1]. Group 1: Cakra Breakout and Phases - Under the Adhishthana Principles, Macy's has developed a Cakra structure between Phases 4 and 8, which is a long-term consolidation zone with bullish implications [2]. - Macy's entered Phase 4 in January 2022 and has since broken out decisively in Phase 9, resulting in a rally of approximately 38%, with a remarkable increase of over 116% in Phase 9 alone [3]. - Phase 9 for Macy's will continue until January 20, 2026, after which it will transition into Phase 10, where the likelihood of peak formation increases [5][6]. Group 2: Market Outlook and Investor Sentiment - With strong momentum in Phase 9 and the upcoming Q3 earnings, volatility is anticipated, but it is not expected to negatively impact the bullish structure [7]. - Investors holding Macy's stock have strong reasons to maintain their positions, as the breakout from the Cakra pattern supports a sustained bullish outlook, with any near-term dips likely being structural pauses rather than trend reversals [8]. - Macy's remains firmly within the ascent leg of the Himalayan Formation, with Phase 9 still having time to unfold before entering Phase 10, which may signal the first signs of an eventual peak [10].

Core Viewpoint - Macy's, Inc. is expected to report a significant loss in its upcoming quarterly earnings, reflecting ongoing challenges in the competitive retail market [2][5]. Financial Performance - Analysts predict a loss of $0.14 per share for the quarter ending October 2025, representing a 450% decline compared to the same period last year [2][5]. - Revenue for the quarter is anticipated to be approximately $4.53 billion, which indicates a 3.3% decrease from the previous year [3][5]. Market Valuation - The company's price-to-sales ratio is 0.26, suggesting a relatively low market valuation in relation to its sales [3]. - Macy's enterprise value to sales ratio stands at approximately 0.47, reflecting the company's total valuation in relation to its revenue [4]. - The enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio is 7.63, indicating a moderate valuation based on cash flow generation [4]. Financial Stability - Macy's debt-to-equity ratio is 1.23, indicating a higher level of debt compared to equity [4]. - The current ratio of 1.38 suggests that Macy's maintains a good level of liquidity to cover its short-term liabilities [4].

Key Points New York City-based Cooper Creek Partners Management sold nearly 6.7 million shares of Macy's in the third quarter. In light of the sales, the value of the overall position fell by about $73 million quarter to quarter. Cooper Creek still holds 740,517 shares of Macy's valued at $13.3 million as of quarter-end. These 10 stocks could mint the next wave of millionaires › On November 14, Cooper Creek Partners Management LLC disclosed a major sale of Macy's shares in the third quarter, acco ...