ab 4 December 2025 Global Research China Internet Finance New regulatory cycle, new valuation framework Reshaping our perceptions of regulatory thinking and valuation framework Fintech lenders' share prices slumped by 30%+ since October, on unexpected escalation of regulatory tightening and a broad miss of Q425/ 2026 outlook. To recall, consumer finances companies were asked to cut average loan pricing to <20% (here and here). 'Curbing excessive borrowing' and 'reducing financing cost' are commonly brought ...

Core Insights - SoFi Technologies has emerged as one of the hottest growth stocks in the market over the last two years, indicating strong investor interest and potential for future growth [1] Company Overview - The company is focused on identifying asymmetrical risk/reward opportunities, suggesting a strategic approach to investment that balances potential gains against risks [1] Investment Strategy - The investment approach utilized by the company includes a mixture of stock and derivatives positions, indicating a diversified strategy aimed at maximizing returns [1] - The time horizon for investments varies, reflecting flexibility in investment strategies to adapt to market conditions [1]

Core Insights - SoFi Technologies has emerged as one of the hottest growth stocks in the market over the last two years, indicating strong investor interest and potential for future growth [1]. Company Overview - The company is focused on identifying asymmetrical risk/reward opportunities, suggesting a strategic approach to investment that balances potential gains against risks [1]. Investment Strategy - The investment approach utilized by the company includes a mixture of stock and derivatives positions, highlighting a diversified strategy aimed at maximizing returns [1]. - The time horizon for investments varies, indicating flexibility in investment strategies to adapt to market conditions [1].

Core Insights - SoFi Technologies Inc has seen a significant share price increase of approximately 101% over the past six months, indicating a positive re-rating by investors [2] - In Q3 2025, SoFi reported adjusted net revenue of around USD 950–962 million, a year-on-year increase of about 38%, with non-GAAP earnings per share at US$0.11, exceeding expectations [2][4] - The company achieved a GAAP net income of approximately USD 139 million, marking its eighth consecutive profitable quarter, and gained roughly 905,000 new members, bringing the total to approximately 12.6 million [2][5] Revenue Growth and Diversification - SoFi has transitioned from a niche student-loan refinancing company to a comprehensive digital financial-services platform, offering a wide range of services including personal loans, mortgages, and investment services [4] - The company’s fee-based revenue surged by 50% year-on-year in Q3, indicating a successful diversification strategy that reduces reliance on interest income [4][6] - The "Financial Services" segment experienced a revenue rise of approximately 76% in Q3 compared to the same period last year, showcasing effective monetization of its growing user base [5] Profitability and Investor Sentiment - SoFi appears to have overcome profitability challenges faced by many fintech companies, reporting an adjusted EBITDA of USD 277 million in Q3 [6] - Enhanced profitability, along with steady member and product growth, has shifted investor sentiment, viewing SoFi more as a mature digital bank rather than a speculative growth-stage fintech [7] - The increase in membership and product acceptance suggests effective cross-selling efforts, raising the lifetime value per customer [8] Future Outlook - Management has revised the full-year 2025 guidance upward for net revenue and profitability, indicating confidence in continued momentum [9] - Future growth will depend on execution, macroeconomic conditions, and the ability to attract new members while converting them into multiple-product users [10] - SoFi has set ambitious targets for 2025, including increased adjusted net revenue, more members, and expanded product offerings, although future stock returns may rely more on consistent earnings performance rather than further re-rating [10]

Core Insights - Jacob Fund's third-quarter 2025 investor letter indicates a continued market recovery with major equity indexes reaching new all-time highs, driven by stabilized trade policies and a focus on fundamentals [1] - The fund anticipates a new productivity cycle that will enhance profit margins and earnings growth, while remaining focused on companies poised for earnings growth and improved valuation multiples [1] Company Highlights - Circle Internet Group (NYSE:CRCL) is highlighted as a key investment, providing infrastructure for stablecoin and blockchain applications [2][3] - Circle's stock experienced a one-month return of -17.75% and a three-month decline of 23.87%, closing at $85.62 per share with a market capitalization of $21.785 billion as of December 5, 2025 [2] - The company reported a 66% year-on-year increase in total revenue and reserve income, reaching $740 million in Q3 2025 [4] Market Position - Circle Internet Group is recognized for its USDC stablecoin, which is the second largest issued stablecoin, and is experiencing growth in market share [3] - The company operates under a regulatory framework and provides transparent financial disclosures, distinguishing it from competitors like Tether [3] - Partnerships with established industry players, such as Coinbase, are expected to support Circle's future growth in the digital finance market [3]

Core Insights - Treasure Global Inc. has updated its full-year 2026 revenue target to approximately USD 3 million, reflecting a projected revenue increase of over 1,500% for the remainder of 2026 compared to Q1 2026 revenues of USD 182,527, driven by the adoption of its fintech and digital asset ecosystem [1][2][9] Revenue Growth Drivers - The updated revenue target is a significant increase from the previous target of approximately USD 1 million announced on December 1, 2025, due to a strengthened capital plan and increased visibility into the commercialization of the OXI wallet and other initiatives [2] - The OXI wallet is set for a market launch in the first half of 2026, expected to manage up to USD 10 billion in user-held digital assets in its first year, generating revenue from various fee-based services [4] - Treasure Global has secured an exclusive partnership to manage 200 million UNIRWA tokens, which could represent up to USD 100 million in underlying assets, contributing to revenue through management and transaction fees [5] - The proposed acquisition of a 51% equity interest in Quarters Elite, managing approximately USD 150 million in client assets, is expected to enhance distribution channels and support recurring revenue streams [6][7] Strategic Initiatives - The combination of the OXI wallet, UNIRWA token initiative, and Quarters Elite acquisition aims to create a connected fintech and digital asset ecosystem, driving revenue growth and diversifying the company's income base [7] - Management emphasizes the scalability and earnings potential of the evolving ecosystem, with a focus on disciplined execution and sustainable growth [8][9] Operational Enhancements - A recent 1-for-20 reverse stock split has been completed to strengthen the per-share price and align with Nasdaq listing requirements, part of ongoing efforts to optimize capital structure [3] - The company is committed to operational efficiency and strategic expansion across fintech and e-commerce verticals to achieve its updated revenue targets [9]

Core Viewpoint - Johnson Fistel, PLLP is investigating potential violations of federal securities laws by Klarna Group plc and its officers regarding misleading statements and undisclosed material information to investors [1][2]. Group 1: Investigation Background - Klarna's Q3 2025 financial results showed an increase in the provision for credit losses, leading to a stock decline of approximately 23.6% since its IPO on September 9, 2025, when shares were priced at $40.00 [2][3]. - The investigation is centered on whether Klarna misled investors about the risks tied to its aggressive expansion into the Fair Financing offering, which significantly contributed to the rise in credit loss provisions [3]. Group 2: Legal Firm Information - Johnson Fistel, PLLP is a nationally recognized law firm specializing in shareholder rights, representing both individual and institutional investors in securities class action lawsuits [5]. - The firm has been acknowledged as one of the Top 10 Plaintiff Law Firms in 2024, recovering approximately $90.725 million for investors in cases where it served as lead or co-lead counsel [6].

Core Viewpoint - Shares of SoFi Technologies experienced a decline of 6% to 7% despite major stock market indexes showing positive performance [1] Company Summary - SoFi Technologies is identified as a disruptive fintech firm [1] - The decline in share price occurred on a day when the broader market was mostly in the green, indicating a specific issue affecting SoFi [1]

>> WELCOME BACK. SQUAWK BOX, A FINTECH AIRWALLEX, HAS ANNOUNCED ITS SECOND FUNDRAISE IN SIX MONTHS, BUMPING ITS VALUATION NOW TO OVER $8 BILLION. JOINING US IS ITS FOUNDER AND CEO JACK ZHANG.GOOD MORNING TO YOU. THIS HAS BEEN A SUPER FAST GROWING BUSINESS. I MEAN, WE'RE TALKING ABOUT A PRIVATE COMPANY THAT'S JUMPED FROM $4 BILLION TO $8 BILLION.WHAT'S HAPPENING HERE. >> I MEAN, WE SPENT THE LAST DECADE TO BUILD THE BEST GLOBAL FINANCIAL AND BANKING INFRASTRUCTURE. AND THAT TAKES A LOT OF EFFORT.AND NOW WE H ...

Core Insights - Block, Inc. is a significant player in the fintech industry, specializing in financial services and digital payment solutions, with a market capitalization of $37.13 billion [1] Financial Performance - Block's stock reached a 52-week low of $44.27 in May but has since increased by 38% from that level [2] - The stock has underperformed, down 18.5% over the past three months, while the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) gained 11.5% during the same period [2] - Over the past 52 weeks, Block's stock has dropped 36.3%, and it is down 3.9% over the past six months, contrasting with the Technology Select Sector ETF, which is up 22.2% and 24.2% over the same periods [4] - Block reported a 2.3% year-over-year increase in revenue to $6.11 billion for Q3 2025, missing the expected $6.34 billion, and adjusted EPS increased 1.9% year-over-year to $0.54, missing the consensus estimate of $0.63 [5] Market Activity - Block's shares have been trading below their 50-day moving average since late October and below their 200-day moving average since early November [4] - During the Black Friday and Cyber Monday period, Block handled over 124 million transactions across its platforms, marking a 10% increase from the previous year [6] Comparative Analysis - Compared to Corpay, Inc. (CPAY), which has declined 15.5% over the past 52 weeks and 6.2% over the past six months, Block has been the clear underperformer [7]