Industry Overview - Sports betting is one of the fastest growing industries in America, dominated by DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment (parent of FanDuel) [1] Legislative Change - A provision in the budget bill changes the way gambling income is taxed [2] - The change is located on page 237 of the 870-page bill [2] Tax Implications - Current law allows deduction of gambling losses from winnings, taxing only net winnings [3] - Starting next year, only 90% of gambling losses can be deducted [4] - Example: With $1,000 winnings and $1,000 losses, only $900 in losses can be deducted, resulting in taxes on the remaining $100 [4]

Regulatory Changes & Impact - Illinois legislature imposed a $050 per wager tax increase, described as "illconceived" [1][2] - The tax increase is set to take effect on September 1st [1] - The company was not warned about the tax increase, which was decided unexpectedly [2][3] Business Strategy & Consumer Behavior - The company intends to pass the $050 tax on to consumers [2] - The company anticipates the tax will drive consumers to illegal markets or encourage them to bet more [2] - The company hopes for public reaction that will lead to reconsideration of the tax [3] Financial Implications - The $050 per wager tax makes it unprofitable for the company to accept small bets (e g, $1, $050, $5, or $10) [2] - The company is implementing the tax pass-through to continue offering its product in Illinois [3]

Core Insights - International Game Technology PLC (IGT) has signed a new three-year sports betting technology agreement with Boyd Gaming Corporation, extending their partnership through August 2028 [1][2] - The agreement allows IGT's PlaySports platform to continue powering Boyd Gaming's retail and mobile sports betting offerings in Nevada, building on a partnership that began in 2018 [1][2] Company Overview - IGT is a global leader in gaming, providing a wide range of gaming experiences across various channels, including lotteries, gaming machines, sports betting, and digital platforms [4] - The company emphasizes innovation, player insights, and operational expertise to deliver engaging gaming experiences and drive growth [4] - IGT has a significant presence in over 100 jurisdictions worldwide and employs approximately 11,000 people [4] Technology and Performance - IGT PlaySports technology is also utilized in Boyd Gaming-owned casinos across multiple states, including Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Ohio, and Pennsylvania [3] - IGT PlaySports was recognized as the "Sportsbook Platform Provider of the Year" at the 2024 EGR North America Awards, highlighting its industry leadership [3]

Core Insights - FanDuel is implementing a 50-cent surcharge on all wagers in Illinois to offset the impact of new state taxes, which are particularly burdensome for leading sportsbooks [1][3] - DraftKings is expected to follow FanDuel's lead in response to the new tax structure [2] - The new tax structure includes a progressive tax rate that can reach up to 40% for the most successful sportsbooks, significantly higher than the previous 15% rate [3][4] Company Actions - FanDuel's new surcharge is projected to generate an additional $86 million in revenue for 2026, representing about 2% of its EBITDA [3] - DraftKings anticipates a revenue increase of $79 million from the surcharge, which would account for approximately 5.4% of its projected EBITDA for the same year [3] - Flutter has stated that if the state reverses the tax decision, FanDuel will eliminate the surcharge immediately [2] Industry Context - The Illinois tax is part of a broader trend, with other states like New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, and Pennsylvania considering similar tax increases [6] - Flutter's CEO expressed concerns that the new tax structure disproportionately affects lower-wagering customers and could drive gamblers to unregulated operators [5][6] - The CEO emphasized the need for an optimal gaming tax rate to enhance customer experience, market growth, and state revenue over time [5][7]

Core Insights - The article highlights three companies that have been undervalued by the market but have the potential for significant returns in the future due to their growth prospects in their respective industries. Group 1: Marvell Technology - Marvell Technology is a chip designer benefiting from the growth in artificial intelligence (AI) spending, particularly through its custom AI accelerators and networking chips [5][6]. - The company has secured deals with major hyperscalers like Amazon and Microsoft for next-generation AI accelerators, despite concerns about competition from other chip designers [7][10]. - Marvell's stock is currently trading at around $65 per share, with a forward P/E ratio of 23, indicating strong growth potential and less downside risk compared to previous months [10]. Group 2: Block - Block, the parent company of Cash App and Square, has faced recent challenges due to a shortfall in Cash App's gross profit growth, but this may present a buying opportunity for growth investors [11]. - Cash App is focusing on increasing revenue per user through new services like Cash App Borrow, which aims to enhance user engagement and address spending slowdowns [12][15]. - Block's current share price is around $63, with a P/E ratio of 16.5 based on 2026 earnings estimates, suggesting a strong long-term outlook despite short-term economic uncertainties [15]. Group 3: DraftKings - DraftKings is a leading sports betting company that has leveraged its brand strength in Daily Fantasy Sports to expand into sports betting, attracting approximately 400,000 new monthly unique payers [16][17]. - The company benefits from valuable user data, which enhances its ability to offer personalized promotions and expand into new betting types [18]. - DraftKings' stock is trading at $34 per share, with an enterprise value-to-forward-EBITDA ratio of about 21, and management projects an average EBITDA growth of 35% from 2026 to 2028, indicating strong growth potential [20].

Core Insights - The article discusses the reliance of the sports betting industry on a single company's technology for real-time data, highlighting the importance of dependable data in legal sports wagering [1]. Group 1 - The sports betting landscape is increasingly dependent on technology to provide quick and reliable data for wagers placed across various platforms, including smartphones and casinos [1]. - The commentary emphasizes a logical approach to market analysis, prioritizing clarity and substance over sentiment and distraction [1].

Sports betting only became legal in the United States in 2018 after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down a 1992 federal ban and ruled that states could individually determine what forms of gambling were legal within their boundaries. This opened the floodgates for various state legislatures to decide whether to allow sports betting. Currently, 40 states and the District of Columbia authorize the practice, and 34 permit online sports betting, according to the American Gaming Association. This has tax impl ...

Core Viewpoint - Flutter Entertainment PLC reported quarterly earnings that missed both revenue and earnings estimates, leading to a decline in stock price, although some investors are reassessing the company's fundamentals and potential for recovery [1][4]. Financial Performance - Earnings per share (EPS) were $1.59, missing estimates of $1.89 [1]. - Revenue was reported at $3.67 billion, below expectations of $3.84 billion [1]. - Following the earnings report, FLUT stock dropped approximately 4% but later reduced losses to nearly half [4]. Market Context - The stock is down 6.3% in 2025, similar to DraftKings, which is down 7% [6]. - A lack of new sports betting initiatives in many states is contributing to the downward pressure on sports betting stocks [7]. - Flutter Entertainment and DraftKings benefit from online casinos, which provide a buffer against the struggles faced by traditional brick-and-mortar competitors [8]. Company Insights - Flutter's CEO attributed the earnings miss to "customer-friendly" outcomes during the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament, where many favorites won, resulting in bettors winning their bets [10]. - The company remains confident in its pricing strategy and expects gross revenue margins to align with expected outcomes over time [11]. Industry Resilience - Sports betting is viewed as resilient during economic downturns, with consumers likely to continue engaging in betting activities even in tough conditions [12]. - The industry is also expected to be shielded from tariffs, making it a more stable investment compared to other discretionary sectors [12]. Analyst Ratings - Analysts have a consensus Buy rating on FLUT stock, with a 12-month price target of $306.28, indicating a potential upside of 26.87% from the current price of $241.41 [13][14]. - The stock has recently pulled back to its 50-day simple moving average, and traders are watching for support at this level [13].

Core Insights - DraftKings reported first-quarter revenue of $1.41 billion, a 20% increase year-over-year, but fell short of the consensus estimate of $1.44 billion [1] - The company reported earnings per share of 12 cents, missing the consensus estimate of 22 cents per share [1] Revenue Growth Drivers - Revenue growth was attributed to strong customer engagement, new customer acquisition, a higher structural sportsbook hold percentage, and the impact of the Jackpocket acquisition [2] - Monthly Unique Payers (MUPs) increased by 28% to 4.3 million, driven by strong retention and acquisition, as well as the Jackpocket acquisition [2] - Excluding the Jackpocket acquisition, MUPs would have increased by 11% year-over-year [2] Average Revenue Metrics - Average revenue per MUP was $108, down 5% year-over-year, primarily due to the inclusion of Jackpocket customers [3] - Without the Jackpocket acquisition, average revenue per MUP would have increased by 7% year-over-year [3] Market Presence - DraftKings operates mobile sports betting in 25 states and Washington D.C., with iGaming available in five states [4] - The company is also active in Ontario, Canada, covering 40% of the country's population [4] Future Guidance - DraftKings plans to launch its sportsbook in Missouri pending approvals, with the state legalizing sports betting in November 2024 [5] - The company revised its full-year revenue guidance down to a range of $6.2 billion to $6.4 billion from a previous range of $6.3 billion to $6.6 billion [5] - Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance was also lowered to a range of $800 million to $900 million from $900 million to $1.0 billion [6] Stock Performance - DraftKings stock rose by 3.9% to $36.74 in after-hours trading, within a 52-week trading range of $28.69 to $53.61 [7]

Core Insights - International Game Technology PLC (IGT) has launched its PlaySports technology for retail sports betting at Silver Reef Casino Resort in Ferndale, Washington, marking the 11th casino in the state to adopt this platform [1][2] - The partnership aims to enhance the sports betting experience for customers, leveraging IGT's technology and trading advisory services to attract sports fans and engage guests with localized offers [2] Company Overview - IGT is a global leader in gaming, providing a wide range of gaming experiences across various channels, including lotteries, gaming machines, sports betting, and digital platforms [3] - The company has a strong local presence in over 100 jurisdictions worldwide and employs approximately 11,000 people [3] - IGT PlaySports has been recognized as the "Sportsbook Platform Provider of the Year" at the 2024 EGR North America Awards, highlighting its leadership in the North American sports betting market [2]