Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating on Chinese stocks within a regional context, favoring domestic-oriented sectors such as Internet, Services, and Banks/Property [2][18]. Core Insights - The US and China have agreed to a 90-day truce in retaliatory tariffs, significantly reducing the effective US tariff rate on Chinese goods from 107% to 39% and on US exports to China from 144% to 30% [2][3]. - Following the tariff rollbacks, Chinese equities have fully recovered from a 13% drawdown, with major indices trading 2-4% above early-April highs [2][6]. - Goldman Sachs has revised its GDP growth forecasts for both the US and China, increasing China's real GDP growth expectation for 2025 from 4% to 4.6% [10][12]. - The report projects MSCI China and CSI300 indices to reach targets of 84 and 4,600 respectively over the next 12 months, indicating potential upside of 11% and 17% [12][13]. Summary by Sections Tariff Developments - The US and China announced a significant rollback of tariffs, with the US effective tariff rate on Chinese goods now at 39% [3][4]. - The extent of the tariff de-escalation was larger than anticipated, with China still facing the highest tariff rates among major US trading partners [3][4]. Market Reactions - Following the tariff announcements, both US and Chinese equities saw positive reactions, with the S&P 500 and MSCI China rallying over 3% [6][10]. - Chinese stocks have outperformed other global markets year-to-date, returning 17% compared to 6% for MSCI EM ex-China and 3% for DM indices [6][10]. Economic Forecasts - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its economic forecasts, raising the US GDP growth forecast for 2025 by 0.5 percentage points to 1% and reducing recession odds to 35% [10][12]. - For China, the real GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been increased to 4.6%, with a slight upward revision for the next year as well [10][12]. Investment Themes - The report emphasizes investment trends that are likely to persist, including a focus on Domestic Stimulus Beneficiaries, EM exporters, and AI proxies [2][18]. - The report suggests that self-help mechanisms have been activated in China to counteract external demand uncertainties, reinforcing the preference for domestic-oriented sectors [18].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a negative long-term impact on US real income due to higher tariffs, estimating a decline of 1.5-2% if current tariff policies become permanent [2][73]. Core Insights - The effective tariff rate in the US is expected to rise by approximately 13 percentage points (pp) this year, reaching its highest level since the 1930s, with elevated tariffs likely to persist in the foreseeable future [2][5]. - A 13pp increase in tariffs is projected to reduce US real income by around 1% in the long run, with additional long-term effects potentially leading to a total income loss of 1.5-2% [2][73]. - The report highlights that higher tariffs may discourage investment, raise equipment costs, and negatively impact innovation, leading to a drag on GDP over time [2][51][74]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact on Economy - The anticipated increase in tariffs will likely shift resources away from successful firms engaged in international trade, resulting in efficiency losses [2][17]. - Reshoring production back to the US is deemed unlikely due to lower production costs in alternative supplier countries [2][33]. Long-Term Economic Effects - Higher tariffs are expected to raise equipment costs, discourage investment, and lower the capital stock, contributing to a long-term GDP drag of approximately 0.75 percentage points [51][57]. - The report suggests that tariffs could lead to slower productivity growth and innovation due to reduced access to export markets and increased input costs [60][61]. Historical Context and Comparisons - The report draws parallels with the economic impacts observed in the UK post-Brexit and countries that liberalized trade in the 1990s, suggesting similar long-term output effects from increased trade barriers [68][72].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious stance on the market, with a focus on the potential for near-term relief but acknowledges the risks associated with economic deterioration and labor market conditions [4][5][35]. Core Insights - The reduction in tariffs between China and the US has led to an upgrade in the US growth forecast for 2025 and a decrease in recession odds from 45% to 35% [2][3]. - Markets have already incorporated the new growth outlook, which may leave them vulnerable to a recessionary outcome if economic conditions worsen significantly [3][8]. - The report emphasizes that while the market's ability to overlook short-term economic weakness has improved, risks remain, particularly related to the labor market and potential upward pressure on bond yields [5][30][31]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The sharp reduction in tariffs has prompted a significant upgrade in growth views, with markets reflecting this change [6][21]. - The report suggests that the market has fully unwound the growth damage priced after previous tariff announcements, indicating a potential overpricing relative to baseline growth expectations [8][12]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the market may be more willing to look through periods of economic weakness if investors believe the worst of the tariff and uncertainty shocks are behind them [24][25]. - It notes that a stabilization in soft data could further support this outlook, making it easier for the market to judge that hard data damage will be limited [25][28]. Risks and Challenges - The report identifies the labor market as a critical factor, with rising unemployment posing a significant risk to market confidence [29][30]. - It warns that renewed upward pressure on bond yields and potential re-escalation of tariff policies could challenge market recovery [31][32][33]. - The report concludes that while there is room for market relief, the potential for deeper economic downturns remains a concern, suggesting the need for protective strategies against downside risks [35].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive sentiment towards the market, suggesting opportunities for adding exposure, particularly in short-dated topside volatility strategies [2][3]. Core Insights - Volatility has decreased, allowing systematic investors to take a more bullish stance [2]. - Retail demand remains strong despite May typically being a month of outflows, indicating robust market support [3]. - Liquidity and market sentiment have improved, signaling a healing market environment [4][5]. - CTAs are projected to flip to a net long position in US equities, with expected purchases of approximately $14 billion over the next week [9]. - The report highlights significant short covering in US-listed ETFs and single stocks, particularly in large-cap equity and tech sectors [20][21]. Summary by Sections Liquidity - S&P Top of Book liquidity reached $9.83 million, significantly higher than April lows of $1.1 million and 28% above the year-to-date average [5]. CTA Positioning - CTAs have increased their long positions in US equities, with a projected net purchase of $14 billion, indicating a shift in market dynamics [9]. Retail Demand - Retail flows have remained strong, supporting the market post "Liberation Day" frenzy, with confidence bolstered by the absence of negative economic data [39][40]. Sentiment - Overall market sentiment has improved but remains at low levels compared to historical data, suggesting potential for growth [27]. Volatility Control Strategies - Volatility control strategies are expected to add length due to lower realized volatility, which is currently around 15, aligning with the one-year average [42][43].

Core Insights - Truxton Capital Advisors (TCA) acted as the sell-side advisor for the sale of two environmental businesses to a publicly traded company, enhancing the acquirer's market share in environmental testing products and services in North America [1] Group 1: Transaction Details - The acquisition involved a combined asset purchase of two commonly owned environmental businesses [1] - TCA provided advisory on deal terms and conducted extensive financial, accounting, tax, and due diligence support [2] Group 2: Stakeholder Perspectives - Peter Deming, Managing Director of TCA, expressed pride in the transaction, highlighting its significance for the families involved and the successful handling of the businesses' succession [3] - A family business owner praised TCA for their exceptional guidance, professionalism, and support throughout the transaction process [4] Group 3: Company Overview - Truxton Capital Advisors specializes in providing consultative services and investment banking strategies tailored for family-owned businesses, focusing on maximizing outcomes for both the business and the family [4] - Truxton, founded in 2004 in Nashville, Tennessee, offers wealth, banking, and family office services, emphasizing a relationship-focused approach to meet complex financial needs [5]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or assets discussed. Core Insights - The analysis suggests that foreign investors may be perceived as "overweight" in US assets, but this is complicated by the home bias of US investors, indicating that US investors are likely underweight in foreign assets [10][11][23]. - An appropriate allocation to US equities relative to the global opportunity set is estimated to be between 56-65% [10][16]. - The report indicates that the USD is expected to weaken if both foreign and domestic investors reduce their exposure to US assets through shifts in asset allocation or changes in currency hedge ratios [10][28]. Summary by Sections Foreign Exposure and Home Bias - The characterization of foreign exposure to the US as "overweight" requires a benchmark for analysis, with the US comprising 71% of the MSCI World index and 62% of the MSCI ACWI [12]. - Many investors exhibit a "home bias," holding a larger share of US equities than suggested by neutral weights, which complicates the assessment of whether they are truly overweight [10][19]. Market Capitalization and Earnings - The US share of global equity market capitalization is 67%, which adjusts to 60% when normalized by long-run P/E ratios [20]. - The US accounts for 56% of global corporate earnings and 27% of global GDP, indicating a significant presence in the global market [20]. Currency and Hedging Strategies - The report discusses the potential impact of changes in hedge ratios on currency markets, noting that investors from the eurozone have the largest holdings of US equities, followed by Canada and the UK [30][32]. - An increase in FX hedging could have a more substantial impact in markets with less liquidity, particularly for currencies like NOK, CAD, SEK, and KRW [34]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued USD weakness due to falling US rates, increased FX hedging of US investments, and rising risk premiums from policy uncertainty [45][58]. - The analysis suggests that the DXY could decline by 6% as a result of these factors, with the most significant weakness expected against JPY and CHF [44][58].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a medium-term bearish outlook for USD/Asia currencies, suggesting a downward trajectory for the USD against Asian currencies [3][18]. Core Insights - The US-China trade talks resulted in a larger-than-expected reduction in tariffs, leading to a decrease in USD/CNY and an initial increase in other USD/Asia pairs [3][5]. - The US economics team revised their 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.0% from 0.5% and reduced recession odds from 45% to 35%, which may limit the downside for the USD compared to a recession scenario [5][6]. - Key themes include ongoing diversification away from US assets, continued conversion of USD by Asian exporters into local currencies, and potential strength in Asian currencies if trade deals are reached [3][11][15]. Summary by Sections Changes Observed - The reduction in tariffs has led to a revision of USD/Asia forecasts, with expectations for USD/CNY to drift towards 7.0 [4][15]. - The US left-tail risk has decreased, improving the outlook for US assets and potentially reducing broad USD bearishness [5][18]. Unchanged Factors - The USD remains overvalued by approximately 17% according to the GS DEER model, indicating that the diversification theme away from US assets is still relevant [6][10]. - Asian exporters are expected to continue selling USD, with significant increases in foreign currency deposits in several Asian countries [11][9]. Implications for Asian FX - The report anticipates that if trade deals are finalized, Asian currencies will likely strengthen against the USD, with favored currencies being KRW, TWD, MYR, and SGD [3][18]. - The path of least resistance for USD/Asia is expected to be downward, especially if trade negotiations lead to a narrower trade deficit with the US [15][18].

Investment Rating - The report raises the real GDP growth forecast for China to 4.6% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026, up from previous estimates of 4.0% and 3.5% respectively [1][10][19] Core Insights - The US-China trade talks resulted in larger-than-expected tariff rollbacks, with US tariffs on Chinese goods dropping to 30% for an initial 90 days, significantly reducing the previous tariff burden [2][8] - The effective US tariff rate on China is estimated to be around 39%, down from 107% previously, while China's effective tariff rate on the US is around 30%, down from 144% [2][10] - The report anticipates that Chinese real exports will be roughly flat in 2025/26, a significant improvement from the previous forecast of a -5% annual decline [1][10] Summary by Sections Economic Impact - The report indicates that the tariff rollbacks will lead to a smaller drag on China's growth, resulting in less demand for domestic policy easing than previously expected [8][10] - The net export contribution to China's GDP growth is now expected to be +0.1 percentage points, compared to a previous expectation of -0.5 percentage points [10] Policy Adjustments - Monetary policy easing expectations have been adjusted to only one 10 basis point cut in Q4 2025, down from two cuts previously anticipated [1][10] - The augmented fiscal deficit estimate for China has been lowered to 13.0% of GDP for 2025, down from 13.5% [1][10][16] Growth Forecast Revisions - The report raises sequential growth forecasts for Q2 and H2 2025, resulting in a 0.9 percentage point increase on a Q4/Q4 basis [10][19] - The revised forecasts for China's GDP growth reflect a more stable outlook amid ongoing trade negotiations, with balanced risks primarily surrounding US-China trade relations [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report raises the 2025 growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points to 1% Q4/Q4 and lowers the 12-month recession odds to 35% from 45% previously [11][14][15]. Core Insights - The US and China have agreed to a 90-day pause in retaliatory tariffs, resulting in a net increase of +30 percentage points for US tariffs on China and +15 percentage points for China's tariffs on the US by 2025 [4][6]. - The effective US tariff rate is expected to increase by +13 percentage points in 2025, slightly lower than the previous assumption of +15 percentage points, due to anticipated sectoral tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors [6][10]. - The report indicates a smaller increase in consumer prices, leading to a reduced tax-like impact on real disposable income and firmer consumption growth [10][11]. Summary by Sections Economic Forecast - The report anticipates a peak hit to year-over-year GDP growth from tariffs of 1.4 percentage points, down from 1.8 percentage points previously [11]. - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.5% in December 2025, a slight decrease from the previous forecast of 4.7% [11]. Federal Reserve Policy - The rationale for Federal Reserve rate cuts has shifted from insurance to normalization, with expectations for three 25 basis point cuts starting in December 2025, rather than sequentially from July [17][19][20]. - The terminal rate range remains unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% [19]. Tariff Policy Implications - The report suggests that the lower US tariff rates on China may influence reciprocal tariff rates on other trading partners, indicating a potential for lower rates overall [5][6]. - The ongoing dialogue between the US and China on economic and trade relations is expected to contribute to a rebalancing of trade [4].

New York, New York--(Newsfile Corp. - May 12, 2025) - Perfect Corp. (NYSE: PERF) ("Perfect" or the "Company"), a leading artificial intelligence ("AI") company offering AI and augmented reality ("AR") powered solutions to beauty and fashion industries, is pleased to announce it will be presenting at the Centurion One Capital 6th Annual LA Summit held at the iconic Beverly Hills Hotel from Monday, June 2nd to Thursday, June 5th , 2025, in Los Angeles, California. Mr. Louis Chen, Executive Vice President and ...