Sunoco LP (SUN) closed the most recent trading day at $58.77, moving -0.68% from the previous trading session. The stock fell short of the S&P 500, which registered a gain of 2.03% for the day. On the other hand, the Dow registered a gain of 1.23%, and the technology-centric Nasdaq increased by 2.74%.The master limited partnership's stock has climbed by 2.25% in the past month, exceeding the Oils-Energy sector's loss of 10.82% and the S&P 500's loss of 5.07%.The upcoming earnings release of Sunoco LP will b ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2025, the company reported a net loss of $595 million or $1.90 per share, compared to a net income of $1.2 billion or $3.75 per share in Q1 2024 [12] - Adjusted net income for Q1 2025 was $282 million or $0.89 per share, down from $1.3 billion or $3.84 per share in Q1 2024 [12] - The refining segment reported an operating loss of $530 million in Q1 2025, compared to an operating income of $1.7 billion in Q1 2024 [12] - Refining throughput volumes averaged 2.8 million barrels per day with a capacity utilization of 89% in Q1 2025 [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Renewable Diesel segment reported an operating loss of $141 million in Q1 2025, down from an operating income of $190 million in Q1 2024 [13] - Ethanol segment operating income was $20 million in Q1 2025, compared to $10 million in Q1 2024 [13] - Ethanol production volumes averaged 4.5 million gallons per day in Q1 2025 [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. light product demand showed a slight increase compared to last year, with product inventories below the same period last year [8] - Diesel sales volumes increased by 6% year-over-year, supported by higher agricultural demand [26] - Total light product demand globally increased by approximately 1 million barrels per day year-over-year [29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on operational excellence, capital deployment with a focus on returns, and maintaining shareholder returns [10] - A $230 million SEC unit optimization project is underway to increase the yield of high-value products, expected to start in 2026 [9] - The company anticipates tight product supply and demand balances, with low product inventories supporting refining fundamentals ahead of the driving season [10] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that refining margins improved through the quarter despite a tough margin environment in the renewable diesel segment [7] - The company expects refining throughput volumes to fall within specific ranges for Q2 2025, with cash operating expenses projected at $5.15 per barrel [18][19] - Management expressed confidence in the resilience of the portfolio despite macroeconomic uncertainties [98] Other Important Information - The company returned $633 million to shareholders in Q1 2025, with a payout ratio of 73% [16] - The company ended the quarter with $8.5 billion in total debt and $4.6 billion in cash and cash equivalents, indicating a strong balance sheet [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Market dynamics and crude differentials - Management noted that sales through the wholesale system were down a few percent, but product exports were up year-over-year [25] - Diesel sales were supported by higher agricultural demand, with total light product inventory drawing down to below the five-year average [30][31] Question: Guidance for Q2 and maintenance impacts - Management confirmed that lower guidance for Q2 is primarily due to maintenance activities, particularly in the North Atlantic and Mid Continent regions [48][49] Question: Decision to close the Peninsula refinery - Management explained that the decision was influenced by California's stringent regulatory environment and the higher costs associated with maintaining the facility [58] Question: Renewable diesel market normalization - Management indicated that the market is still adjusting to the new PTC regime, with expectations for improvement in the back half of the year [75] Question: Update on import permit in Mexico - Management confirmed the reinstatement of the import permit after demonstrating compliance with Mexican authorities [89][90] Question: Cash balance and share buybacks - Management emphasized the strength of the balance sheet and the commitment to returning cash to shareholders through buybacks [97] Question: Diesel inventory outlook - Management acknowledged the tight diesel inventory situation in the U.S. and the potential for increased volatility in the market [148]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2025, the company reported a net loss of $595 million or $1.90 per share, compared to a net income of $1.2 billion or $3.75 per share in Q1 2024 [12] - Adjusted net income for Q1 2025 was $282 million or $0.89 per share, down from $1.3 billion or $3.84 per share in Q1 2024 [12] - The refining segment reported an operating loss of $530 million in Q1 2025, compared to an operating income of $1.7 billion in Q1 2024 [12] - Refining throughput averaged 2.8 million barrels per day with a capacity utilization of 89% [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Renewable Diesel segment reported an operating loss of $141 million in Q1 2025, down from an operating income of $190 million in Q1 2024 [13] - Ethanol segment operating income was $20 million in Q1 2025, up from $10 million in Q1 2024 [13] - Renewable diesel sales volumes averaged 2.4 million gallons per day in Q1 2025 [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. light product demand was slightly higher than last year, with product inventories below the same period last year [8] - Diesel sales showed a 6% year-over-year increase, supported by higher agricultural demand [26] - Total light product demand globally increased by approximately 1 million barrels per day year-over-year [29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on operational excellence, capital deployment with a focus on returns, and maintaining shareholder returns [10] - A $230 million SEC unit optimization project is underway to increase the yield of high-value products, expected to start in 2026 [9] - The company anticipates tight product supply and demand balances, with low product inventories supporting refining fundamentals ahead of the driving season [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a resilient economy despite macro uncertainties, with expectations of tight gasoline supply in California due to refinery closures [58][148] - The company expects refining cash operating expenses in Q2 2025 to be $5.15 per barrel [19] - Management expressed confidence in the ability to return cash to shareholders, with a commitment to share buybacks supported by a strong balance sheet [98] Other Important Information - The company returned $633 million to shareholders in Q1 2025, with a payout ratio of 73% [16] - The company ended Q1 2025 with $8.5 billion in total debt and $4.6 billion in cash and cash equivalents [17] - The company expects capital investments for 2025 to be approximately $2 billion, with $1.6 billion allocated to sustaining the business [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Market dynamics and crude differentials - Management noted that sales through the wholesale system were down a few percent, but product exports were up year-over-year [25] - Diesel sales were supported by higher agricultural demand, with a year-over-year increase in gasoline sales of 1% [26] Question: Guidance for Q2 and maintenance impacts - Management confirmed that lower guidance for Q2 is primarily due to maintenance activities, particularly in the North Atlantic and Mid Continent regions [48][106] Question: Decision to close the Peninsula refinery - Management explained that stringent regulatory environments in California influenced the decision to close the refinery, with higher maintenance costs compared to Wilmington [58] Question: Renewable diesel market normalization - Management indicated that the market is adjusting to new PTC regulations, with expectations for improvement in the back half of the year [75] Question: Update on import permit in Mexico - Management confirmed the reinstatement of the import permit after demonstrating compliance with Mexican authorities [89] Question: Cash balance and share buybacks - Management emphasized the strength of the balance sheet and the commitment to returning cash to shareholders through buybacks [98] Question: Diesel inventory outlook - Management acknowledged that California may face gasoline shortages in the coming years, leading to potential volatility in margins [148]

Core Viewpoint - Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) reported a significant adjusted loss in Q1 2025, contrasting sharply with prior earnings and consensus estimates, primarily due to asset impairments and declining refining margins [1][2]. Financial Performance - The adjusted loss for Q1 2025 was $1.90 per share, compared to earnings of $3.82 in the same quarter last year [1]. - Total revenues decreased from $31,759 million in the prior-year quarter to $30,258 million, although this figure exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $28,450 million [1]. - Adjusted operating income in the Refining segment fell to $605 million from $1.8 billion year-over-year, missing the estimate of $1,022 million [3]. - The Ethanol segment reported an adjusted operating profit of $20 million, down from $39 million in the prior-year quarter, also missing the estimate of $55.1 million [4]. - The Renewable Diesel segment experienced an operating loss of $141 million, a decline from an operating income of $190 million in the previous year [5]. Operational Metrics - Refining throughput volumes increased to 2,828 thousand barrels per day (MBbls/d) from 2,760 MBbls/d year-over-year, surpassing the estimate of 2,786 MBbls/d [6]. - The Gulf Coast region contributed 59.1% to total throughput volume, with Mid-Continent, North Atlantic, and West Coast regions accounting for 16%, 17.4%, and 7.5%, respectively [7]. Margins and Costs - The refining margin per barrel of throughput decreased to $9.78 from $14.07 in the prior year, while operating expenses per barrel rose to $5.07 from $4.71 [8]. - Total cost of sales slightly decreased to $29,751 million from $29,776 million year-over-year, attributed to lower material costs [9]. Capital Investment and Balance Sheet - Capital investment for Q1 totaled $660 million, with $582 million allocated for sustaining the business [10]. - As of March 31, 2025, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $4.6 billion, total debt of $8.5 billion, and finance lease obligations of $2.3 billion [11].

Group 1: Trade and Market Impact - Investors showed relief on April 22 due to signs of easing trade tensions, with hints from President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent about potential reductions in the 145% tariffs on Chinese goods [1] - The positive developments regarding tariffs have led to a bullish market trend since April 22, with expectations of further gains as more tariff-related good news is anticipated [2] Group 2: Stock Screening and Recommendations - A screening process has been designed to identify stocks based on improving broker recommendations and upward revisions in earnings estimates over the past four weeks, incorporating the price/sales ratio as a complementary valuation metric [3] - The screening criteria include a net upgrade in ratings, percentage change in earnings estimates, price-to-sales ratio, stock price above $5, average daily volume over 100,000 shares, and market capitalization in the top 3000 [4][5] Group 3: Featured Stocks - Avis Budget operates as a leading vehicle rental operator with a fleet of nearly 695,000 vehicles, benefiting from strong demand in North America [6] - ABM Industries provides integrated facility solutions and has a strong earnings surprise history, with an average beat of 9.6% over the last four quarters [7] - CVR Energy focuses on renewable energy and petroleum refining, committed to developing renewable biofuels [9] - Delek US Holdings is an independent refiner with significant competitive advantages in the Permian Basin, achieving an average earnings beat of 22.3% [10][11] - Asbury Automotive Group's diversified product mix and e-commerce platform, Clicklane, are driving growth and improving its risk profile [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - Valero Energy (VLO) is expected to report a significant decline in quarterly earnings and revenues, with analysts predicting earnings of $0.43 per share, an 88.7% decrease year-over-year, and revenues of $28.45 billion, a 10.4% decrease from the previous year [1]. Earnings Estimates - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised upward by 8.3%, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [2]. - Revisions to earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor behavior and are strongly correlated with short-term stock price performance [3]. Revenue Projections - Analysts estimate 'Total operating revenues - Renewable diesel' at $635.55 million, reflecting a 55% decrease from the prior-year quarter [5]. - The 'Total operating revenues - Ethanol' is projected to be $997.56 million, indicating a 9.6% decline from the year-ago quarter [5]. - 'Total operating revenues - Refining' is expected to be $27.22 billion, showing a year-over-year change of -9.7% [6]. Refining Margins - The consensus for 'U.S. Mid-Continent region - Refining margin per barrel of throughput' is $8.98, down from $13.20 in the same quarter last year [6]. - For the 'U.S. West Coast region - Refining margin per barrel of throughput', the estimate is $11.51, compared to $12.62 a year ago [7]. - The 'U.S. Gulf Coast region - Refining margin per barrel of throughput' is projected at $8.87, down from $14.11 in the same quarter last year [7]. Throughput Volumes - Analysts predict 'Refining - Total Throughput volumes per day' to be 2,824.11 thousand barrels of oil, an increase from 2,760 thousand barrels of oil year-over-year [8]. - 'U.S. Gulf Coast region - Throughput volumes per day' is expected to reach 1,732.09 thousand barrels of oil, up from 1,594 thousand barrels of oil in the same quarter last year [8]. - 'U.S. Mid-Continent region - Throughput volumes per day' is forecasted at 426.77 thousand barrels of oil, down from 452 thousand barrels of oil a year ago [9]. Regional Insights - 'North Atlantic region - Throughput volumes per day' is estimated at 465.99 thousand barrels of oil, slightly up from 449 thousand barrels of oil in the previous year [10]. - The estimated 'North Atlantic region - Refining margin per barrel of throughput' is $11.82, down from $15.67 in the same quarter last year [10]. Stock Performance - Valero Energy shares have returned -17.5% over the past month, underperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite, which saw a -8.9% change [11].

Larger Cap Refiners: What Are We Focused On Into EPS Results? In this note we update estimates for the US Larger Cap Refiners (MPC, VLO, PSX, DINO) ahead of 1Q25 earnings. Heading into the quarter, we are mindful of the tougher near-term setup where we note (a) softer global oil demand expectations, (b) tighter crude differentials with Brent-WTI tightening to $3/bbl (vs $5/bbl historical average) and WTI-WCS tightening to $9/bbl (vs $15/bbl historical average), and (c) depressed Renewable Diesel earnings. T ...

Company Overview - CVR Energy (CVI) is expected to report a year-over-year decline in earnings due to lower revenues, with a projected quarterly loss of $0.90 per share, representing a change of -2350% [3][12] - Revenues are anticipated to be $1.62 billion, down 13.1% from the same quarter last year [3] Earnings Expectations - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 186.67% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4] - The Most Accurate Estimate for CVR matches the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of 0%, which complicates predictions of an earnings beat [10][11] Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, CVR was expected to post a loss of $0.65 per share but actually reported a loss of $0.13, resulting in a surprise of +80% [12] - Over the past four quarters, CVR has beaten consensus EPS estimates two times [13] Market Sentiment - The stock may experience upward movement if the actual results exceed expectations, while a miss could lead to a decline [2] - The combination of a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) and an Earnings ESP of 0% suggests uncertainty regarding the likelihood of an earnings beat [11][18] Industry Comparison - Phillips 66 (PSX), another player in the Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry, is expected to report earnings of $0.42 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of -77.9% [17] - Phillips 66's revenues are projected to be $30.67 billion, down 15.8% from the previous year [17]

Group 1: Company Overview - CrossAmerica Partners (CAPL) is a notable stock within the Oils-Energy sector, which consists of 246 companies and ranks 13 in the Zacks Sector Rank [2] - CAPL currently holds a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), indicating a favorable earnings outlook [3] Group 2: Performance Metrics - Over the past quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for CAPL's full-year earnings has increased by 72.7%, reflecting improved analyst sentiment [4] - Year-to-date, CAPL has gained approximately 4.7%, while the Oils-Energy sector has seen an average return of -7%, demonstrating CAPL's outperformance [4] Group 3: Industry Context - CAPL is part of the Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing - Master Limited Partnerships industry, which includes 6 stocks and ranks 53 in the Zacks Industry Rank; this group has gained an average of 0.7% this year [6] - In contrast, National Fuel Gas (NFG), another stock in the Oils-Energy sector, has a year-to-date return of 30.1% and is part of the Oil and Gas - Integrated - United States industry, which has declined by -8.6% this year [5][7]

Company Performance - Western Midstream's stock closed at $38.13, reflecting a +1.98% increase, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.13% on the same day [1] - The stock has experienced a decline of 10.64% over the past month, which is worse than the Oils-Energy sector's loss of 9.42% and the S&P 500's loss of 6.3% [1] Financial Projections - The upcoming earnings per share (EPS) for Western Midstream is projected to be $0.83, indicating a significant decrease of 43.54% from the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is expected to reach $945.11 million, showing a growth of 6.46% compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year [2] Annual Estimates - For the entire year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates forecast earnings of $3.42 per share and revenue of $3.79 billion, reflecting changes of -14.93% and +5.21% respectively from the previous year [3] - Recent analyst estimate revisions suggest a positive outlook for the company's business performance and profit potential [3] Valuation Metrics - Western Midstream's Forward P/E ratio stands at 10.94, which is below the industry average Forward P/E of 19.1, indicating a valuation discount [6] - The Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing - Master Limited Partnerships industry, to which Western Midstream belongs, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 52, placing it in the top 21% of over 250 industries [6] Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), currently rates Western Midstream at 3 (Hold) [5] - The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has increased by 0.24% in the past month, reflecting a slight positive sentiment among analysts [5]