PresentationGood day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Thungela CFO pre-close statement for December 2025. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this event is being recorded. I will now hand over to your host, Hugo Nunes, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.Hugo NunesHead of Investor Relations Thank you. Good afternoon to all, and welcome to today's investor call following the release of the CFO pre-close statement earlier today. I'm Hugo Nunes, Thungela's Head of Investor Relations, and ...

Thungela Resources Trading Update Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Thungela Resources (OTCPK:TNGR.F) - **Date of Update**: December 09, 2025 - **Context**: Pre-closed statement for the year ending December 31, 2025 Key Points Production and Operational Performance - Thungela has operated for approximately 33 months without any fatalities, which is critical for maintaining production momentum [5] - Full-year production guidance was set at 12.8-13.6 million tons, with expectations to reach around 13.7 million tons of export saleable production [5][11] - Elders Colliery's ramp-up contributed significantly to higher production, alongside strong performance from other collieries like Mafube [5][6] - Ensham in Australia is expected to report export saleable production of approximately 3.8 million tons, within the guidance range of 3.7-4.1 million tons [6] Market Conditions and Pricing - Energy markets have been affected by geopolitical risks and economic sentiment, leading to volatility in thermal coal prices [8] - Thermal coal prices declined during 2025, with Richards Bay averaging just below $90 per ton, down from $105 a year ago, indicating a $15 per ton margin swing [9][10] - Newcastle benchmark coal prices averaged about $105 per ton, down from $135 in 2024, with South African coal facing wider discounts [9][10] Financial Performance - Export equity sales for South Africa are expected to be around 13.6 million tons for 2025, up from 12.6 million tons in 2024 [12] - Free on board (FOB) cost per ton for South Africa is expected to be below guidance due to strong production outcomes and a non-cash rehabilitation adjustment [11] - Capital expenditure (CapEx) for 2025 is projected at ZAR 2.6 billion, with ZAR 1.4 billion for sustaining capital and ZAR 1.2 billion for expansion [14] Strategic Initiatives - Thungela is undergoing a portfolio optimization, including asset disposals to reduce environmental liabilities [19][20] - The company has initiated a disposal program for certain assets, which is expected to positively impact future liabilities [20] - Investments are prioritized through the cycle, with ZAR 2.1 billion returned to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks [21] Future Outlook - The company is studying potential projects to fill production gaps from Greenside and Khwezela, with a focus on the No. 4 Seam from Elders and Zibulo North Shaft [26][31] - Long-term thermal coal price expectations hover between $90-$100 per ton, based on analyses from Wood Mackenzie [38] - The board is considering the balance between maintaining a cash buffer and returning capital to shareholders, with flexibility to adjust based on market conditions [43][44] Additional Considerations - The strong Rand poses a significant headwind for the business, impacting cash flow and valuation [18] - The coalbed methane project is progressing, with significant capital already spent to secure legal tenure and prepare for future development [48] Conclusion Thungela Resources is navigating a challenging market environment with a focus on maintaining production levels, optimizing its asset portfolio, and ensuring shareholder returns while preparing for future growth opportunities. The company remains committed to its operational safety record and is strategically positioned to adapt to market fluctuations.

Core Thesis - Ramaco Resources, Inc. is facing skepticism regarding its rare-earth ambitions, particularly in scandium oxide, which is projected to generate over US$500 million in EBITDA by 2028, despite the current coal business providing steady cash flow [2][4] Financial Projections - The company's model anticipates scandium oxide sales at US$3,750/kg with annual production of 179 tons, leading to projected revenues of US$611 million, which are deemed unrealistic given the global market conditions [3] - Current market prices for scandium are around US$600–700/kg, with total annual production under 40 tons, suggesting that Ramaco's revenue projections are significantly inflated [3] Operational Status - The rare-earth project is still in the pilot stage, lacking current output or revenue diversification beyond coal, and there are no binding customer contracts or significant government funding to support the ambitious projections [2][3] - The full-scale facility for the mine is years away, and any deviations in price or yield could drastically reduce projected returns [4] Valuation Insights - Ramaco's coal operations generated Q3 2025 revenue of US$121 million and adjusted EBITDA of US$8.4 million, with a standalone coal valuation estimated at US$12–15 per share, plus an additional US$8–10 for the rare-earth venture [4] - The fair value of the stock is suggested to be between US$20–25 per share, contrasting with current market prices that may overstate speculative upside [4] Market Performance - The stock price of Ramaco Resources has appreciated approximately 4% since previous bullish coverage, indicating some realization of the growth trajectory and rare-earth optionality, but valuation risks remain due to unrealistic assumptions about scandium [5]

Core Viewpoint - Hallador Energy (HNRG) shows potential for significant upside, with a mean price target of $26.67 indicating a 33.7% increase from the current price of $19.95 [1] Price Targets - The average price target consists of three estimates ranging from a low of $23.00 to a high of $29.00, with a standard deviation of $3.21, suggesting a consensus among analysts [2] - The lowest estimate indicates a 15.3% increase, while the highest suggests a 45.4% upside [2] Analyst Sentiment - Analysts have shown increasing optimism regarding HNRG's earnings prospects, with a strong agreement in revising EPS estimates higher, which correlates with potential stock price movements [4][11] - Over the last 30 days, two earnings estimates have been revised upward, leading to an 85.7% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year [12] Zacks Rank - HNRG holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), placing it in the top 5% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate factors, indicating strong potential for upside [13] Caution on Price Targets - While price targets are a common metric, they should be approached with skepticism as they may not accurately predict stock price movements [3][10] - Analysts often set optimistic price targets influenced by business relationships, which can lead to inflated estimates [8]

Core Viewpoint - Ramaco Resources, Inc. has announced the dividend ratio for its Class B common stock for Q4 2025, reflecting its ongoing commitment to shareholder returns through stock dividends [1][2]. Dividend Announcement - The board of directors has declared a quarterly Class B common stock dividend of $0.1780 per share, payable on December 19, 2025, to shareholders of record as of December 5, 2025 [2]. - Class B common stockholders will receive shares based on the closing transaction price of $12.37 per share on the record date, resulting in each stockholder receiving 0.014390 of one share for each share held [3][4]. - No fractional shares will be issued; instead, cash will be paid for any fractional shares based on the fair value determined at the close of Nasdaq on the record date [5]. Company Overview - Ramaco Resources, Inc. operates as a dual platform critical mineral company, focusing on high-quality, low-cost metallurgical coal in Central Appalachia and developing coal, rare earth elements, and critical minerals in Wyoming [6]. - The company has four active metallurgical coal mining complexes in Central Appalachia and is in the initial stages of production at a coal mine and rare earth development near Sheridan, Wyoming [6]. - In 2023, a significant deposit of primary magnetic rare earths and critical minerals was discovered at the Wyoming mine, and the company operates a carbon research facility related to advanced carbon products derived from coal [7].

Group 1 - NACCO Industries, Inc. (NYSE:NC) experienced a share price decline of 2.67% from November 26 to December 3, 2025, ranking it among the Energy Stocks that Lost the Most This Week [1] - The company operates in the natural resources sector through three segments: Coal Mining, North American Mining, and Minerals Management [2] - A quarterly dividend of $0.2525 per share was announced on November 18, with the stock going ex-dividend on December 1, which may have led to the recent share price drop as investors sold off shares after capturing the dividend [3] Group 2 - NACCO Industries reported a 24% year-over-year revenue growth to $76.6 million for its third quarter, with EBITDA increasing over 34% year-over-year to $12.5 million, driven by improvements across all segments and higher natural gas prices [4]

Company Overview - Peabody Energy Corporation is a leading coal producer with a diversified portfolio of mining operations and a significant reserve base, supplying both thermal and metallurgical coal to a global customer base [6][9] - The company reported a revenue of $4 billion and a net income loss of $32.7 million for the trailing twelve months (TTM) [4][10] - As of the latest report, Peabody Energy's shares were priced at $29.16, reflecting a 27% increase over the past year, outperforming the S&P 500, which rose by 12% in the same period [3][4] Recent Developments - Progeny 3 disclosed a reduction of 3 million shares in Peabody Energy, trimming its stake by an estimated $28.5 million as of September 30, with the remaining shares valued at $24.1 million [1][2] - The stake now accounts for 1.2% of Progeny 3's total reportable U.S. equity holdings, which amount to $1.9 billion [2] Financial Performance - Peabody Energy's adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was reported at $99.5 million, supported by an increase in revenues compared to the previous quarter [10] - The company ended the quarter with $603 million in cash and over $950 million in total liquidity, indicating balance-sheet resilience despite market challenges [10] Market Position - Peabody Energy operates through mining, preparation, and sale of coal, generating income from both direct coal sales and brokered contracts, serving electricity generators, industrial facilities, and steel manufacturers in the U.S. and international markets [9] - The company's operations span the United States and Australia, focusing on coal sales to utilities and industrial customers [9]

Core Insights - The recent floods in South and Southeast Asia have resulted in over 1,300 fatalities and at least $20 billion in economic losses, highlighting the increasing risks posed by climate change and extreme weather events in the region [1][8] Economic Impact - A series of three tropical cyclones combined with the northeast monsoon have caused unprecedented rainfall and destruction across multiple countries, affecting homes, infrastructure, and agricultural output [2] - The estimated economic losses from last month's floods are based on government and analyst assessments, which may be revised as further damage assessments are conducted [8] - Thailand's economy could face additional losses of up to $400 million per month if flooding conditions persist, particularly affecting high-value exports like electronics and auto parts [15] - Indonesia has experienced losses exceeding $4 billion, accounting for approximately 0.29% of its GDP, due to damage to infrastructure and agricultural output [16] Climate Change and Resilience - Climate change is identified as a significant factor exacerbating flooding risks in Southeast Asia, with predictions of more frequent "compound disasters" in the future [4][19] - The region has a high percentage of its population living in flood-prone areas, with 21% in Malaysia and around 20% in Indonesia, indicating a growing vulnerability as global warming accelerates [5] - Despite the risks, many Southeast Asian countries are lagging in building climate resilience, often prioritizing economic growth over necessary adaptation efforts [6] Political and Social Factors - In the Philippines, a corruption scandal related to flood mitigation funding has led to a pause in infrastructure projects, negatively impacting investor confidence and economic growth [7] - The intersection of political issues and inadequate climate adaptation efforts is particularly acute in the Philippines, affecting overall disaster response and recovery [7][12] Industry Response - While the immediate impact on industrial output from the recent storms has been limited, the long-term effects on supply chains and manufacturing remain uncertain [10][11] - Vietnam's economy has incurred approximately $3.2 billion in losses due to storm damage this year, nearing the record losses from previous severe weather events [18]

Market Performance - The Australian Stock Market saw gains on December 2, 2025, with the S&P/ASX 200 closing up 14.50 points or 0.17% at 8,579.70 after a decline the previous day [8] - Major ASX indices recorded modest gains, with the S&P/ASX 20 rising 0.4%, the S&P/ASX 50 increasing by 0.2%, and the S&P/ASX 100 also up by 0.2% [2][3] Top Performers - Yancoal Australia Limited led the gains in the S&P/ASX 200, with its share price increasing by 3.35% to 5.550 [6][8] - AUB Group Limited also performed well, finishing up 3.00% at 31.550 [6][8] - Other notable gainers included HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (up 2.94% to 1.400), Computershare Limited (up 2.65% to 35.640), and Judo Capital Holdings Limited (up 2.55% to 1.610) [6][8] Decliners - Zip Co Limited experienced the largest decline, with a drop of 10.61% to 2.950 [7][8] - Catapult Sports Ltd saw a notable decrease of 9.13%, closing at 4.680 [7][8] - Other significant decliners included Guzman y Gomez Limited (down 4.35% to 22.220), DroneShield Limited (down 4.33% to 1.880), and Telix Pharmaceuticals Limited (down 3.99% to 14.450) [7][8] Year-to-Date Performance - The S&P/ASX 200 index has gained 0.50% over the last five days and 5.15% year to date [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "A" for the coal industry, indicating expected performance to lead the market [1]. Core Insights - The coal import volume continues to show a contraction trend, with a cumulative decrease of 11.0% from January to October 2025. The import price for coal in October was $71 per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline but a month-on-month increase of $3.65 [4][5]. - The report highlights that while domestic coal prices have unexpectedly risen in October, the import volume has decreased due to significant reductions in imports from Mongolia and Indonesia, influenced by transportation issues and local production challenges [6][7]. Summary by Sections Import Data Analysis - The cumulative import volume of coal from January to October 2025 shows a decrease of 11.0%, with October's import volume down 9.75% year-on-year and 9.26% month-on-month. All major coal types experienced a month-on-month decline, particularly thermal coal and lignite [4][5]. - The average import price for coal in October was $71 per ton, which is lower than the previous year but increased from the previous month [4]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the reasons behind the decline in coal imports, particularly from Mongolia and Indonesia, due to political instability and seasonal weather impacts affecting production [6][7]. - The potential for a rebound in Mongolian coal exports is noted, with a target of 100 million tons set for 2026, although challenges remain in achieving this goal [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the coal sector presents investment opportunities in the fourth quarter, driven by expected demand increases and a favorable pricing environment. The report anticipates that fourth-quarter performance may exceed that of the third quarter, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [7][8].