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Consequences Of Capital Flows Can't Be Ignored
Seeking Alpha· 2025-11-07 18:01
Group 1 - The core concept of thermodynamics, which states that energy flow drives most systems, is applicable to economies and financial markets where capital flows are crucial [1] - ClearBridge is identified as a leading global asset manager that emphasizes active management and research-based stock selection [1] - The investment strategies of ClearBridge reflect the highest-conviction ideas of its portfolio managers, which are communicated to investors through various channels [1]
Franklin Resources(BEN) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-11-07 17:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2025, ending AUM reached $1.66 trillion, a 3.1% increase from the prior quarter, while average AUM increased by 4.4% to $1.63 trillion [31] - Adjusted operating revenues increased by 13.9% to $1.82 billion from the prior quarter, driven by elevated performance fees and higher average AUM [31] - Adjusted net income and adjusted diluted earnings per share increased by 35.7% and 36.7% from the prior quarter to $357.5 million and $0.67, respectively [32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In public markets, over 50% of mutual funds, ETFs, and composites outperformed peers and benchmarks across all standard time periods, indicating improved investment performance [9] - Private markets saw fundraising of $22.9 billion, contributing to a total of $270 billion in alternative AUM, with expectations to increase fundraising to between $25 billion and $30 billion in fiscal 2026 [11] - The SMA business grew at a 21% compound annual rate since 2023, with AUM of $165 billion across more than 200 strategies [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Internationally, Franklin Templeton managed nearly $500 billion in assets, achieving $10.7 billion in positive long-term net flows in markets outside the U.S. [26] - Fixed income net inflows were $17.3 billion for the year, with positive net flows for seven consecutive quarters [28] - Alternatives and multi-asset generated $25.7 billion in net flows for the year, reflecting broad-based client demand [29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on deepening client partnerships, broadening investment capabilities, and strengthening its diversified model as part of a five-year plan [7] - Franklin Templeton aims to democratize private assets and expand its wealth management offerings, targeting to double Fiduciary's AUM by 2029 [20] - The company is investing in innovation, particularly in digital assets and AI, to redefine how investors access opportunities and improve operational efficiency [22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management expressed optimism about the strong public equity gains and the overall constructive view of private markets, despite a complex geopolitical backdrop [24] - The company anticipates continued growth in alternatives, particularly in the retail market, driven by partnerships and innovative product offerings [13] - Management highlighted the importance of selectivity and discipline in navigating the current market dynamics, which present opportunities across public and private markets [25] Other Important Information - Franklin Templeton was named 2025 Asset Manager of the Year in the $500 billion-plus AUM category, reflecting its leadership in innovation and investment advisory solutions [7] - The company has integrated certain corporate functions to drive efficiency and enhance client service, particularly in response to challenges faced by Western Asset Management [29] - The firm is focused on capital management, returning $930 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases [36] Q&A Session Summary Question: Fundraising target for fiscal 2026 - The target is between $25 billion and $30 billion, with contributions expected from various funds including Lexington, Clarion, and Alcentra [43] Question: Expense guidance for 2026 - The company expects to achieve $200 million in cost savings for 2026, with a focus on maintaining or reducing total expenses compared to fiscal 2025 [44][46] Question: Infrastructure product pipeline - The company is building a fund around partnerships with DigitalBridge, Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners, and Actis to participate in infrastructure deals [48] Question: AI and tokenization opportunities - The company is leading in tokenization, offering unique features for money market funds and exploring new distribution capabilities through partnerships with exchanges like Binance [51][53] Question: Update on Lexington flagship fund - The target size for the Lexington flagship fund is about $25 billion, with expectations for the first close in the first half of 2026 [54]
Frank Talk: Stocks have history on their side heading into year-end
Proactiveinvestors NA· 2025-11-07 16:33
Economic Impact - The ongoing government shutdown is projected to cost the U.S. economy up to $14 billion, equivalent to a 2 percentage point hit to GDP [2] - U.S. businesses and consumers are facing an average tariff rate of 18%, the highest in about 90 years, leading to an estimated income loss of around $1,800 per household this year [3] - Consumers are shouldering most of the tariffs, with American households responsible for about 55% of the new levies [4] Consumer Spending Trends - Record spending on Halloween is anticipated, with Americans expected to spend $13.1 billion this year, up from $11.6 billion last year [5] - Preliminary data suggests U.S. households will spend 4% less on gifts and 12% less on other items for Christmas compared to last year due to tariffs [6] Cocoa Market Dynamics - Cocoa prices have spiked due to plant disease and drought in West Africa, with futures prices reaching as high as $12,000 per metric ton [6] - Major chocolatiers have announced higher prices for chocolate products and have reformulated recipes to reduce cocoa content [7][8] - European chocolate manufacturers are expected to see a decline in operating margins this year due to increased competition and reduced demand for cocoa-containing products [10] Market Performance and Investor Sentiment - The S&P 500 has spent over 125 trading sessions above its 50-day moving average, the longest stretch since 2011, driven by enthusiasm over artificial intelligence [12] - Historical data suggests that stocks tend to outperform from November to April, with an average return of 7% during this period since 1945 [13] - If the S&P 500 is up more than 15% year-to-date by the end of October, stocks have finished higher in November and December 95% of the time [14]
Bimini Capital Management, Inc. (BMNM) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Prepared Remarks Transcript
Seeking Alpha· 2025-11-07 16:26
PresentationI would now like to turn the conference over to your speaker today, Melissa Alfonso. Please go ahead.Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Bimini Capital Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised today's conference is being recorded.Melissa Alfonso Thanks, Kevin. Good morning, and welcome to the Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call for Bimini Capital Management. This call is being recorded today, November 7, 2025. At this time, the compa ...
Franklin Resources(BEN) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Presentation
2025-11-07 16:00
AUM and Flows - Ending AUM was $16612 billion, a decrease of 1% compared to the prior year[7,9,11] - Long-term inflows increased 78% year-over-year to $3439 billion[7,48] - Long-term net outflows were $974 billion, compared to $326 billion in the prior year[7] - Excluding Western Asset Management, long-term net inflows were $445 billion, compared to $160 billion in the prior year[7] - ETF AUM increased by 56% to $491 billion with $137 billion of net inflows[7] - Retail SMA AUM increased by 13% to $1645 billion with $27 billion in net inflows[7] - Canvas® AUM increased by 71% to $163 billion with $47 billion of net inflows[7] Financial Performance - Adjusted revenue increased 21% year-over-year to $67011 million[9,11,12] - Adjusted operating income decreased 43% year-over-year to $16402 million[9,11,12] - Adjusted net income decreased 63% year-over-year to $11958 million[9,11,12] - Adjusted diluted EPS decreased 75% year-over-year to $222[9,11,12] Alternatives - Alternative AUM increased to $2639 billion after $139 billion in realizations and distributions[7] - Fundraised $262 billion in alternatives, including $229 billion in private markets[7,17] Capital Management - Returned $930 million to shareholders through dividends ($690 million) and share repurchases ($240 million)[15] - Cash and investments totaled $674 billion[10,12]
BlackRock's Rosenberg Sees 'Sweet Spot' in Middle of the Curve
Youtube· 2025-11-07 15:48
Core Insights - The analysis highlights the importance of alternative data sources in understanding wage inflation trends post-COVID, indicating a shift in wage dynamics with a softening observed primarily at the high end of the wage spectrum [1][3][5] Wage Dynamics - The recovery has shown a K-shaped pattern, where the lower end of the wage spectrum remains weak while the high end has shown some strength recently, but this has now reverted to pre-COVID levels [2][3] - Aggregate wages are returning to pre-COVID levels, indicating a softening trend, particularly from the high end rather than the low end [3][5] Market Implications - The current labor market data suggests a slowdown, which aligns with other data sources and indicates a 70% probability of the Federal Reserve continuing its rate-cutting cycle [5][6] - The dependency of risk asset markets on potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve is emphasized, with fixed income markets being more sensitive to rate changes compared to riskier assets like high yield [6][7][8] Valuation and Market Sentiment - Recent market movements reflect a pullback from previously euphoric valuations, particularly in the equity market, which had become overextended [11][12][13] - The current market environment presents a potential buying opportunity, contingent on the macroeconomic outlook remaining stable [13] Investment Strategy - The sweet spot for investment is identified in the middle part of the yield curve (five to seven years), where the Fed's normalization efforts provide some support [14][15] - Strong corporate earnings and balance sheets suggest limited downside risk, making carry trades appealing in the current environment [17][18]
$1.7 trillion-dollar ETF giant State Street says 401(k) market about to face new low-cost challenger
CNBC· 2025-11-07 15:05
Core Insights - The SEC's recent decision to allow fund companies to create ETF share classes of traditional mutual funds is expected to lead to a significant increase in new ETFs in the market, but State Street Investment Management plans to take a different approach by offering mutual fund share classes of its ETF strategies in the U.S. retirement plan market [1][2][11] Group 1: Market Opportunity - State Street identifies the retirement plan market, particularly 401(k) and 403(b) plans, as a $4 trillion opportunity where ETFs have not been traditionally represented as core index fund options [3] - The company aims to leverage its existing $1.7 trillion in ETF assets to create competitive offerings in this market [5][12] Group 2: Competitive Advantages - State Street's scale and low fees provide a competitive edge in offering portfolio options to investors and retirement plan sponsors [4][12] - The "in-kind flows" used in ETF management can lead to lower costs and better performance over time for retirement investors, as large institutions can redeem ETF shares without forcing the sale of investments [6][7] Group 3: Industry Context - The mutual fund industry is expected to rapidly adopt the SEC's new ETF provision, with over 70 fund providers having applications pending [9][10] - The current government shutdown has delayed State Street's plans to introduce ETFs as mutual funds in the retirement market [11] Group 4: Strategic Focus - State Street's strategy is not solely about marketing specific ETF strategies but about creating a structure that integrates the efficiency of ETFs into more markets [16] - The fragmentation in the retirement industry, with various legal wrappers for portfolio strategies, presents a challenge that State Street aims to address [17][18]
Brookfield Asset Management .(BAM) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-11-07 15:02
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Quarterly fee-related earnings grew 17% year-over-year to $754 million, while distributable earnings increased 7% to $661 million [5][25] - Fee-bearing capital reached $581 billion, an 8% increase year-over-year, driven by record fundraising [5][24] - The margin for the quarter was 58%, consistent with the prior year, and up 1% over the last 12 months [26][27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Infrastructure and renewable power raised $30 billion, deployed $30 billion, and monetized over $10 billion at approximately 20% returns over the past 12 months [11] - The private equity business launched its seventh vintage, focusing on essential service businesses, with expectations for it to be the largest fund ever [18][20] - Real estate business saw approximately $23 billion in property sales, representing $10 billion of equity value over the past 12 months [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global M&A volumes increased nearly 25% year-over-year, with $1 trillion in announced deals in the third quarter, the highest since 2021 [7][8] - The demand for electricity is increasing at an unprecedented rate, driven by electrification trends and the surge in electricity demand from data centers [16][17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is launching an AI Infrastructure Fund to capture opportunities in AI-related infrastructure investments, estimated to exceed $7 trillion over the next decade [14] - A landmark partnership with the U.S. government to construct $80 billion in new nuclear power reactors positions the company at the forefront of clean energy initiatives [18] - The company aims to double its business by 2030, with plans to expand product offerings and diversify its investor base [30][31] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong fundraising momentum and expects 2026 to exceed 2025 levels [37][38] - The company is well-positioned to meet the increasing demand for power solutions, leveraging its renewable power business [17][23] - Management highlighted the importance of operational improvement as a key driver of value creation in the current economic environment [73] Other Important Information - The company declared a quarterly dividend of $43.75 per share, payable on December 31 [32] - The acquisition of the remaining 26% in Oaktree Capital Management is expected to close in the first half of 2026, enhancing the company's credit capabilities [9][32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Fundraising momentum and management fee growth outlook for 2026 - Management expects fundraising to exceed 2024 levels and anticipates strong growth in management fees driven by new acquisitions and fundraising [37][38] Question: Credit business fee rate and growth aspirations - The elevated fee rate was driven by a mix shift and one-off transaction fees, with a positive trend expected in the credit business [42][43] Question: Integration benefits from acquiring Oaktree - The acquisition will allow for operational synergies, improved marketing, and client service capabilities, enhancing overall value [49][52] Question: Retail market momentum and distribution strategy - The company is seeing robust momentum in the retail market and is focused on building relationships with key stakeholders to capture growth opportunities [55][56] Question: Corporate direct lending outlook - Management remains cautious about direct lending due to competition but sees strong opportunities in credit related to real assets and infrastructure [60][61] Question: Private equity fund outlook amidst market backdrop - The company is optimistic about its private equity fund due to its focus on essential assets and consistent performance across market cycles [72][75] Question: Broadening the client base for fundraising - The company has dedicated teams targeting small and medium-sized institutions, family offices, and insurance institutions, leading to significant growth [79][80]
Brookfield Asset Management .(BAM) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-11-07 15:02
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Quarterly fee-related earnings grew 17% year-over-year to $754 million, while distributable earnings increased 7% to $661 million [5][25] - Fee-bearing capital reached $581 billion, an 8% increase year-over-year, driven by record fundraising [5][24] - The company raised $30 billion in the third quarter, bringing total inflows over the past 12 months to more than $100 billion [7][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The infrastructure and renewable power franchise raised $30 billion, deployed $30 billion, and monetized over $10 billion at approximately 20% returns over the past 12 months [11] - The private equity business launched its seventh vintage, focusing on essential service businesses, with expectations for it to be the largest fund ever [18][75] - The real estate business sold approximately $23 billion of properties, representing $10 billion of equity value over the past 12 months [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global M&A volumes increased nearly 25% year-over-year, with $1 trillion in announced deals in the third quarter, the highest since 2021 [8] - The demand for electricity is increasing at an unprecedented rate, driven by electrification trends and the surge in electricity demand from data centers [16][17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is launching an AI Infrastructure Fund to capture opportunities in AI-related infrastructure investments, estimated to exceed $7 trillion over the next decade [14] - A landmark partnership with the U.S. government to construct $80 billion of new nuclear power reactors was announced, positioning the company at the center of clean baseload power development [18] - The company plans to double its business by 2030, with fee-related earnings reaching $5.8 billion and fee-bearing capital reaching $1.2 trillion [31] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong fundraising momentum and expects 2026 to exceed 2025 levels [37][38] - The company is well-positioned to meet the increasing demand for power solutions, leveraging its renewable power business [17][23] - Management highlighted the importance of operational improvement as a key driver of value creation in the current economic environment [73] Other Important Information - The company declared a quarterly dividend of $43.75 per share, payable on December 31 to shareholders of record as of November 28 [32] - The acquisition of the remaining 26% in Oaktree Capital Management is expected to close in the first half of 2026, enhancing the company's credit capabilities [9][32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Fundraising momentum and management fee growth outlook for 2026 - Management expects fundraising to exceed 2024 levels and anticipates strong growth in management fees driven by new acquisitions and fundraising [37][38] Question: Credit business fee rate and growth aspirations - The elevated fee rate was driven by a mix shift and one-off transaction fees, with a positive trend expected in the credit business [42][43] Question: Integration benefits from acquiring Oaktree - The acquisition will allow for operational synergies, improved marketing capabilities, and enhanced client service [49][52] Question: Retail market momentum and distribution strategy - The company is seeing robust momentum in the retail market and is focused on building relationships with key stakeholders to capture growth opportunities [55][56] Question: Private equity outlook amidst market backdrop - The private equity business is expected to perform well due to its focus on essential assets and operational improvement, differentiating it from peers [73][75]
KKR(KKR) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-11-07 15:02
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported fee-related earnings of $1.15 per share, total operating earnings of $1.55 per share, and adjusted net income of $1.41 per share, all of which are among the highest in its history as a public company [4][6] - Management fees reached $1.1 billion, up 19% year-over-year, with a healthy growth of 16% excluding catch-up fees [4][5] - Total transaction and monitoring fees were $328 million, while capital markets fees were strong at $276 million, driven by private equity and infrastructure activities [5][6] - Adjusted net income was $1.3 billion, or $1.41 per share, reflecting an 8% increase year-over-year [7][8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The insurance segment reported operating earnings of $305 million, with a run rate around $250 million [6] - Strategic Holdings operating earnings were $58 million for the quarter, significantly ahead of the previous year [6] - Realized performance and investment income totaled $935 million within the asset management segment [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company raised $43 billion in capital during Q3, marking the second-highest fundraising quarter in its history [8][9] - Inflows from Global Atlantic within credit were $15 billion, significantly up year-over-year [9] - The private equity and real asset business lines raised $16 billion of capital in the quarter [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is evolving its insurance business to extend the duration of its book and leverage its global investment management capabilities [12][14] - There is a focus on raising third-party capital to grow Global Atlantic in a capital-efficient manner [13][14] - The company aims to achieve $4.50+ in fee-related earnings per share and $7+ in after-tax adjusted net income per share by 2026 [23][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the fundraising momentum and the ability to achieve 2026 guidance despite potential challenges in the monetization environment [24][26] - The company noted that the current monetization environment is constructive, with expectations for continued strong performance [26][34] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining a conservative approach to capital deployment and portfolio construction [29][30] Other Important Information - The company has over $1 billion in monetization activity, indicating a healthy portfolio maturity [7][8] - There is a focus on cash outcomes in segment reporting, with a conservative approach to recognizing earnings [19][20] - The company expects to take a one-time charge related to the Asia Private Equity Fund, which will impact net realized performance income in Q4 [22][23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you summarize the international perspective regarding investor demand in Asia? - Management noted that investor demand for Asia continues to increase, with a broad understanding of opportunities in markets like Japan, India, and Southeast Asia [36][37] Question: What is the normalized level of ROE for the insurance business? - Management indicated that they expect to achieve an all-in ROE of over 20% as the insurance business matures and third-party capital contributions increase [42][55] Question: How do you see the capital markets business expanding from the GA side? - Management highlighted the potential for significant capital markets opportunities, estimating hundreds of millions of dollars annually as the business develops [60][61] Question: Can you elaborate on how changes in the insurance business enhance client partnerships? - Management emphasized that owning an insurance company provides a better understanding of client needs, allowing for improved service and competitive advantages [70]