RT MSB Intel (@MSBIntel)🚨 JUST IN: 🇨🇳 SHANGHAI SILVER INVENTORIES HAVE COLLAPSED 88% TO THEIR LOWEST LEVEL IN OVER 10 YEARSSUPPLY SQUEEZE HAPPENING!!! ...

Company Performance - Bristol Myers Squibb & Co. reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenues of $12.50 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $12.281 billion, representing a 1% year-over-year increase [2] - The company reported adjusted earnings of $1.26, surpassing the consensus of $1.11, although this reflects a 25% decline due to the impacts of acquired IPRD charges and licensing income [2] Market Trends - U.S. stocks experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones index falling more than 400 points, down 0.86% to 49,073.13, while the NASDAQ dipped 1.03% to 22,669.07, and the S&P 500 dropped 0.91% to 6,820.34 [1] - In commodity markets, oil prices decreased by 2.5% to $63.51, gold fell by 0.9% to $4,907.60, silver dropped 9.4% to $76.455, and copper declined 0.5% to $5.8210 [3]

Market Overview - U.S. stocks traded lower, with the Nasdaq Composite falling more than 200 points on Thursday. The Dow decreased by 0.56% to 49,225.33, the NASDAQ dipped 0.89% to 22,700.74, and the S&P 500 fell 0.74% to 6,831.80 [1] - European shares also declined, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 falling 0.8%, Spain's IBEX 35 Index down 1.4%, London's FTSE 100 down 0.3%, Germany's DAX slipping 0.6%, and France's CAC 40 down 0.3% [5] - Asian markets closed mostly lower, with Japan's Nikkei falling 0.88%, China's Shanghai Composite declining 0.64%, and India's BSE Sensex down 0.60% [6] Sector Performance - Consumer staples shares gained by 0.3% on Thursday, while consumer discretionary stocks fell by 2.2% [1][2] Company Earnings - Alphabet reported fourth-quarter revenue of $113.83 billion, exceeding the Street consensus estimate of $111.31 billion. The earnings per share were $2.82, beating the consensus estimate of $2.63 [3] Commodity Prices - In commodity news, oil traded down 2.4% to $63.58, gold fell 1.5% to $4,877.70, silver decreased by 10% to $75.950, and copper fell 0.5% to $5.8225 [3][4] Economic Indicators - U.S. job openings declined by 386,000 to 6.542 million in December, compared to market estimates of 7.2 million. Initial jobless claims increased by 22,000 to 231,000, against market estimates of 212,000 [7]

Group 1 - Global fund managers were significantly overinvested in commodities prior to the recent collapse in commodity prices [1]

Market Overview - U.S. stocks showed mixed performance with the Dow Jones index gaining over 100 points, up 0.24% to 49,009.24, while NASDAQ fell 0.06% to 23,448.80 and S&P 500 rose 0.05% to 6,942.71 [1] - European shares increased, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 rising 0.8%, Spain's IBEX 35 Index up 1%, London's FTSE 100 gaining 1%, Germany's DAX up 0.9%, and France's CAC 40 rising 0.8% [4] - Asian markets closed mixed, with Japan's Nikkei down 1.25%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index down 2.23%, China's Shanghai Composite down 2.48%, and India's BSE Sensex up 1.17% [5] Company Performance - The Walt Disney Company reported better-than-expected first-quarter results, with earnings of $1.63 per share, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of $1.57 per share [2] - Disney's quarterly sales reached $25.981 billion, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of $25.741 billion [2] Commodity Market - In commodity news, oil prices fell by 4.6% to $62.21, while gold prices increased by 0.5% to $4,768.20 [3] - Silver prices rose by 2.5% to $80.555, whereas copper prices decreased by 1.8% to $5.8195 [3] Economic Indicators - The S&P Global manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4 in January, up from the preliminary reading of 51.9 and compared to December's five-month low of 51.8 [6]

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chair has led to a significant decline in precious metals, potentially releasing liquidity into equity markets [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The rise of gold and silver halted on February 2, following Warsh's nomination, causing a sharp reversal in commodity markets [2]. - Tom Lee from Fundstrat described the previous rally as a "juggernaut trade" that was detracting risk appetite from the stock market [2]. - The decline in silver and gold is viewed as a "bloodbath," but it may serve as a "pause that might refresh" the broader bull market, allowing trapped capital to flow back into risk assets [3]. Group 2: Impact on Technology and Earnings - The end of fears regarding currency debasement has encouraged tech investors, with the dollar strengthening and reducing the need to invest in metals [4]. - Jim Cramer suggested that investors should focus on earnings rather than the volatility in commodity prices, viewing the metals movement as a secondary concern [5]. - Experts believe that the crash in metals is not indicative of economic decline but rather a necessary reset that could lead to a significant rally in tech and cyclical stocks through 2026 [6].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the global financial markets, focusing on cross-asset sentiment, fund flows, and positioning, particularly in relation to equities, fixed income, and commodities. Core Insights and Arguments - **Japanese Government Bonds (JGB)**: The 40-year JGB yields surpassed 4% for the first time due to fiscal concerns, indicating a significant shift in the bond market. Japan's fiscal position is viewed as fundamentally sound, but there are concerns regarding the timely disclosure of fiscal projections and the timing of rate hikes, which are now expected to occur in June 2026 [7][18]. - **UK Monetary Policy**: The Bank of England (BoE) has pushed back its expected rate cuts to March, July, and November 2026, following inflation data that exceeded expectations. This indicates a more cautious approach to monetary policy in the UK [7][12]. - **MSCI Europe**: The MSCI Europe index retreated due to potential Greenland-related tariff escalations. However, European equity strategists believe these tariffs are idiosyncratic rather than widespread, leading to an increase in their year-end 2026 target due to a valuation discount compared to the US and evidence of AI adoption's return on investment [7][10]. - **US Dollar (USD)**: The USD has fallen back to levels seen in October 2025. FX strategists expect ongoing pressure on the USD due to risk premia and hedging trends, despite it remaining the largest currency in central bank reserves. Gold is noted to be gaining market share rapidly [7][14]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Market Performance**: The FTSEMIB Index underperformed the S&P 500, declining by 2.1% compared to a 0.4% decline in the S&P 500. The Topix index in Japan also saw a decline of 0.8%. In contrast, materials led gains in global equity sectors with a 3.5% increase [80]. - **Bond Market Movements**: US Investment Grade (IG) and European IG bonds both tightened by 2 basis points, indicating a slight improvement in credit conditions. The US Treasuries curve has flattened, suggesting changing investor sentiment towards longer-term bonds [80]. - **Commodity Performance**: Gold and silver outperformed the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index (BCOMSP), with gold increasing by 6.9% and silver by 8.8%, reflecting a strong demand for precious metals amid market volatility [80]. - **Cross-Asset Positioning**: The report includes a detailed summary of net positioning across various asset classes, indicating significant short positions in US equities and bonds, while commodities like gold and copper show varied positioning among asset managers and hedge funds [65]. Conclusion The conference call highlights significant shifts in the financial markets, particularly in bond yields, monetary policy adjustments, and the performance of various asset classes. Investors should be aware of these dynamics as they navigate potential investment opportunities and risks in the current economic landscape.

Joining us now, George Heel. He's the vice president of commodity research at George, great to have you with us. >> Thanks for having me.>> You know, it's funny that we we had this list of fundamental reasons why the metals would decline today and yet the move has been sort of memeish, which is by definition not pinned by fundamental drivers. So, what did you make of the of the drop today. Of course.Well, I think you know silver has obviously had a outsized move against gold over the last few months and thi ...

Company Performance - Apple Inc. reported fiscal first-quarter revenue of $143.76 billion, exceeding analyst estimates of $138.42 billion [2] - The company reported earnings of $2.84 per share, surpassing analyst expectations of $2.66 per share [2] Market Trends - U.S. stocks experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones index falling more than 400 points, down 0.87% to 48,646.87 [1] - The NASDAQ decreased by 0.88% to 23,476.27, and the S&P 500 fell 0.65% to 6,923.38 [1] - Consumer staples shares gained by 0.3%, while materials stocks fell by 1.7% [1] Commodity Prices - Oil prices increased by 0.4% to $65.66, while gold prices decreased by 6.6% to $5,001.80 [3] - Silver prices fell by 18.7% to $93.01, and copper prices dropped by 3.2% to $6.0045 [3] European Market Performance - European shares showed positive movement, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 rising by 0.60% [4] - Spain's IBEX 35 Index increased by 1.64%, London's FTSE 100 rose by 0.37%, Germany's DAX gained 1.02%, and France's CAC 40 rose by 0.81% [4] Asian Market Performance - Asian markets closed lower, with Japan's Nikkei falling by 0.1%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dipping by 2.08%, China's Shanghai Composite down by 0.96%, and India's BSE Sensex decreasing by 0.36% [5]

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market achieved its third consecutive year of double-digit returns in 2025, primarily driven by technology stocks, but is currently trading at high valuations and extreme concentration levels [4][9] - The Davis Opportunity Fund (DOF) outperformed the S&P 1500 Index with a return of +22.02% compared to the index's +17.02% in 2025, indicating strong performance driven by selective investment choices [8][9] - Active management is recommended in the current market environment to navigate high valuations and to capitalize on opportunities in well-chosen equities [5][19] Market Performance - The S&P 1500 Index is trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of nearly 26 times, indicating high valuation levels [4] - The index is more concentrated than it has been in nearly three decades, with a significant portion of its value tied to a few megacap technology companies [4] Investment Strategy - The company advocates for a shift from passive index exposure to actively managed equity portfolios, emphasizing the importance of selective security choices and rational diversification [5][19] - The portfolio of DOF consists of 47 holdings compared to the S&P 1500 Index's 1,506, with a forward P/E ratio of 14.3x, significantly lower than the index's 25.6x [10] Sector Focus - The fund's investments include healthcare services, technology shares, and financial services, with a focus on companies that exhibit financial strength and competitive advantages [11][12][14] - Key holdings in healthcare include UnitedHealth, Viatris, and Quest Diagnostics, which are expected to benefit from the expanding U.S. healthcare market [12][13] Technology Investments - The fund holds positions in major technology companies such as Meta Platforms, Alphabet, and Amazon, while also investing in semiconductor firms like Applied Materials that offer strong value [14] - The strategy includes trimming positions in the "Magnificent 7" based on valuation considerations [14][22] Financial Sector - Capital One Financial is highlighted as a core holding, trading at a forward P/E of 13-14x, which is attractive compared to many technology firms [15][16] - The company is noted for its strong consumer finance division and significant AI-related patents, positioning it for future growth [16] Unique Opportunities - The portfolio includes special situations like Wesco International, which has outperformed the benchmark due to strong business fundamentals [17] - Investments in energy and commodities, such as Coterra and Teck Resources, reflect a strategic interest in sectors critical to electrification trends [18] Future Outlook - The company believes that the current market environment presents opportunities for active management to outperform passive strategies, especially given the valuation bubble in major indexes [19] - There is a call to reconsider surplus cash allocations in light of potential falling interest rates and the attractiveness of equities [19]