Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of investing in companies with sustainable business models and growth potential to secure a comfortable retirement, as many Americans feel underfunded for their retirement [1][2]. Company Analysis Amazon - Amazon is a leading player in North American e-commerce, controlling approximately 40% of the market [4]. - The company's cloud computing division, Amazon Web Services, generates about 60% of its total earnings, despite e-commerce accounting for only 16% of total revenue [5]. - Amazon has consistently achieved double-digit sales growth and is expected to maintain this trend due to its adaptability and willingness to enter new business lines [7][9]. - The company has diversified its revenue streams, including over $56 billion in advertising revenue, which surpasses the combined operating profit of its e-commerce segments [8]. Uber Technologies - Uber is capitalizing on a cultural shift away from car ownership, with a significant decline in the number of licensed drivers aged 16 to 19, dropping from 65% in 1995 to about one-third today [11]. - The ride-hailing market is projected to grow at an average annualized rate of over 11% through 2033, driven by declining car ownership [12]. - Uber's delivery revenue grew 22% to nearly $3.8 billion in Q1, now representing over 30% of its total revenue [14]. American Express - American Express operates its own payment network and issues credit cards, providing it with operational advantages over competitors like Visa and Mastercard [16]. - The company focuses on a rewards program that attracts affluent customers, who are less likely to reduce spending during economic downturns [17][18]. - While American Express may not show double-digit growth, it offers consistent revenue and profit growth, supporting dividends and stock buybacks, which have historically outperformed the S&P 500 over the past 30 years [19][20].

Core Insights - American Express has maintained a strong focus on affluent customers, benefiting from their appreciation for travel and dining perks, which has helped the company remain resilient amid concerns of a spending slowdown [1] - Total spending on Amex cards increased by 7% in the second quarter, matching the first quarter and surpassing the 6% increase from the previous year [1] Spending Trends - Travel spending showed weakness compared to goods and services transactions, particularly due to stagnant airline spending, which remained flat year-over-year [2] - The decline in economy class domestic airfare, which fell by 3.5% in June compared to the previous year, indicates that consumers are spending less on tickets despite overall inflation rising [3] Financial Performance - American Express reported second-quarter profit and revenue that exceeded expectations and reaffirmed its 2025 guidance for these metrics [3] - Despite positive financial results, shares of American Express fell by 2.7% during midday trading, with year-to-date share growth at less than 4%, lagging behind other financial institutions like JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup [3] Competitive Landscape - Increased competition in the premium card market from companies such as JPMorgan, Capital One, and Citigroup poses challenges for American Express, particularly as it launches a refreshed Platinum card [4] - Concerns have been raised regarding the company's spending on rewards programs, as it may need to invest more heavily to achieve growth [4]

Core Insights - American Express reported $17.86 billion in revenue for Q2 2025, a year-over-year increase of 9.3% and a surprise of +0.95% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $17.69 billion [1] - The EPS for the same period was $4.08, compared to $3.49 a year ago, with an EPS surprise of +5.7% over the consensus estimate of $3.86 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Book value per common share was $44.16, slightly below the estimated $44.84 [4] - Risk-Based Capital Ratios - Basel III - Common Equity Tier 1/Risk Weighted Assets stood at 10.6%, slightly above the estimated 10.5% [4] - Total Card Member loans amounted to $142.28 billion, compared to the average estimate of $143.69 billion [4] - Total non-interest revenues reached $13.67 billion, exceeding the estimated $13.4 billion [4] Market Performance - Shares of American Express returned +6.4% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +5.4% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues reached a record $17.9 billion, up 9% year over year [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) was $4.8, up 17% excluding last year's gain from the sale of Certify [5][14] - Total card member spending increased by 7%, consistent with previous patterns [6][15] - The company reaffirmed its full-year revenue growth and EPS guidance provided in January [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Spending in travel categories like airlines and lodging was softer overall, while restaurant spending was strong, up 8% FX adjusted [15] - The U.S. Consumer business saw millennial spending up 10% and Gen Z spending growing around 40% [16] - New card acquisitions totaled 3.1 million in Q2, with 1.5 million in the U.S. Consumer business [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International business continued to grow in double digits, up 12% FX adjusted [16] - The premium products drove around 80% of growth in card member revolving loans [19] - Delinquency rates remained low, with U.S. millennial and Gen Z customers showing better credit performance than older age groups [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on refreshing its U.S. Consumer and Business Platinum cards this fall to maintain leadership in the premium card space [7][12] - The strategy includes enriching value propositions with more benefits and offerings, attracting premier partners to enhance customer value [10][12] - The competitive landscape has shifted towards partner-rated value, access, experiences, and superior customer service [8][9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the resilience of the business model despite macroeconomic uncertainties [15] - The company anticipates continued strong performance in the premium card segment, supported by a growing addressable market [12][28] - Management acknowledged the competitive environment but emphasized the importance of delivering value to maintain pricing power [46][67] Other Important Information - The company returned $2 billion of capital to shareholders, including $600 million in dividends and $1.4 billion in share repurchases [27] - The CET1 ratio was 10.6%, within the target range of 10% to 11% [26] Q&A Session Summary Question: How does the company plan for intermediate term spending trends? - Management expects spending trends to remain consistent, with some softness in airline and lodging but resilience in goods and services [31][32] Question: How does the company view competition in the premium card space? - Management believes that competition has been beneficial for customers and that as long as value is delivered, pricing power will remain intact [46][67] Question: What is the outlook for international growth and acceptance? - Management is optimistic about international growth, noting double-digit growth and ongoing improvements in merchant acceptance [58][60] Question: How does the company address concerns about lounge access and overcrowding? - Management is expanding lounge sizes and innovating with new concepts to manage demand effectively [77][78] Question: How does the company view the dynamics of net card fee growth? - Management expects some moderation in card fee growth rates in the second half of the year, with potential acceleration in 2026 [105][106]

Financial Performance - Revenue growth was 9%, reaching $17.856 billion, compared to $16.333 billion in the prior year [7] - Adjusted EPS increased by 17% to $4.08, up from $3.49 in Q2'24, excluding the Accertify gain [5, 7] - Net income decreased by 4% to $2.885 billion [7] - The company reaffirmed its full-year guidance of 8-10% revenue growth and $15.00-$15.50 EPS [5] Billed Business - Total billed business grew by 7% year-over-year (FX-adjusted) [9] - U S Consumer Services billed business also increased by 7% year-over-year [12] - International Card Services billed business grew by 12% year-over-year (FX-adjusted) [17] - Commercial Services billed business increased by 2% year-over-year (FX-adjusted) [14] Credit Metrics - The net write-off rate for Card Member Loans was 2.2% [67] - The net write-off rate for Card Member Receivables was 1.4% [67] - Total provision increased by 11% year-over-year, driven by a larger net reserve build and higher net write-offs [77] Capital and Guidance - The company's CET1 ratio was 10.6% [53] - The company projects an EPS of $15.00 - $15.50 for 2025 [56]

Investment Recommendation - The author recommends Capital One Financial, citing a 28% increase since the Chapel Trust's purchase on March 6 [2] - The author believes Capital One has significant growth potential [2] Acquisition of Discover Financial - Capital One is acquiring Discover Financial in an all-stock deal valued at $353 billion [2] - The acquisition provides Capital One with one of the four major payment networks, alongside Visa, Mastercard, and American Express [3] - The acquisition allows Capital One to scale up to become a truly global payments platform [4] - The acquisition helps Capital One reduce its reliance on Mastercard and Visa by owning its own payment network and collecting transaction fees directly [5] Competitive Landscape - Discover, combined with Capital One, can better compete with Visa, Mastercard, and American Express [6] - Visa and Mastercard operate by collecting tolls for running their payment networks without taking credit risk [4] - Discover, like American Express, issues its own cards and processes payments [3]

Whenever the average is near their all-time highs, even after today's pullback, all sorts of people come out of the woodwork to claim that great stocks have become overvalued. But sometimes these stocks have a lot more room to run. Take Capital One Financial, the bank with a huge credit card business that we own for the Chapel Trust, which you can join by uh with you can follow along by joining the CBC Investing Club.Now, since we first bought this one for the trust on March 6, we're already up over 28%. Bu ...

Core Viewpoint - Focusing solely on high dividend yields can lead to overlooking strong investment opportunities with lower yields but significant dividend growth potential [1] Group 1: Eli Lilly - Eli Lilly's sales increased from $28.5 billion in 2022 to over $45 billion in the past year [4] - The company offers a low yield of 0.8%, attributed to a stock price increase of over 370% in five years [5] - Eli Lilly has raised its dividend by an average of 15% annually for seven years, with a current quarterly dividend of $1.50, up from $0.74 in 2020 [6][7] Group 2: TJX Companies - TJX Companies provides a dividend yield of 1.4%, slightly above the S&P 500 average of 1.2% [8] - The company's revenue for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 rose by 5% year-over-year, totaling $13.1 billion [9] - TJX has increased its dividend by 13% this year, marking the 28th increase in 29 years, with an average annual increase of 20% [10][11] Group 3: American Express - American Express has a modest dividend yield of 1%, with revenue net of interest expense reaching nearly $17 billion, a 7% year-over-year increase [12] - The company raised its quarterly dividend by 17% in March, with the current dividend at $0.82, which is 91% higher than the $0.43 paid five years ago, reflecting a compounded annual growth rate of 13.8% [13][14]

Hey, good morning Frank. So, you know, as you know, JP Morgan disrupted the credit card industry nearly a decade ago with a Sapphire Reserve. When it came on the scene, it was so viral that they ran out of the metal for the cards.Now, the credit card company is trying to push the envelope further by going upstream up market. So, the the credit card fee, the annual fee, this is the headline that everybody caught, is it now $795, which is the highest for any mainstream credit card out there. It's 45% higher t ...

American Express (AXP) 2025 Conference June 11, 2025 09:45 AM ET Speaker0 Alright. Up next, we have American Express. Before we get started, I'm going to read some quick disclosures. For important disclosures, please see the Morgan Stanley research disclosure website at morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures. The taking of photographs and use of recording devices is also not allowed. If you have any questions, please reach out to your Morgan Stanley sales representative. I'm getting really good at saying tha ...