American Express (AXP) 2025 Conference June 11, 2025 09:45 AM ET Speaker0 Alright. Up next, we have American Express. Before we get started, I'm going to read some quick disclosures. For important disclosures, please see the Morgan Stanley research disclosure website at morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures. The taking of photographs and use of recording devices is also not allowed. If you have any questions, please reach out to your Morgan Stanley sales representative. I'm getting really good at saying tha ...

Several of the Oracle of Omaha's longtime favorites would be at home in most investors' portfolios. It's not nearly as surprising as it may seem at first glance. See, while American Express is frequently lumped together with Visa and Mastercard (for obvious reasons), it's not quite an apples-to-apples comparison. Its business could be better described as a marketing and rewards program that just happens to be centered around a card payments network. Its card holders are willing to pay as much as $700 per ye ...

Group 1: Joint Venture and Operations - BlackRock Inc. and Jio Financial have received approval from the Securities and Exchange Board of India to start their mutual fund operations through the joint venture named Jio BlackRock Asset Management [1] - The joint venture plans to launch a variety of investment products with a "digital first" approach targeting both retail and institutional investors [1][2] - The initial investment for the joint venture is set at $150 million from each partner, aiming to democratize access to investment solutions in India [4] Group 2: Strategic Rationale and Market Opportunity - This initiative aligns with BlackRock's growth strategy to enhance its market share in both domestic and global markets, capitalizing on India's rising affluence and digital transformation [5] - The joint venture aims to reshape the investment landscape in India by providing affordable, tech-enabled options for millions of investors [4][5] Group 3: Historical Context and Future Plans - BlackRock and Jio Financial formed the joint venture in July 2023, combining BlackRock's investment expertise with Jio's local market knowledge [3] - In April 2024, both entities expanded their collaboration to establish a wealth management and broking business in India, targeting the growing retail investor base [4]

Core Viewpoint - The completion of Capital One's $35 billion acquisition of Discover Financial Services significantly alters the credit card industry landscape, creating a major player in terms of loan volume [1]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition allows Capital One to capture a larger share of card spending and compete more effectively with Visa and Mastercard [2]. - Discover's payments network, now under Capital One's control, is one of only four in the U.S., enabling increased revenue from interchange fees and reducing reliance on Visa and Mastercard [2]. - The merger faced regulatory scrutiny but received final approval from the Federal Reserve and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, with no challenge from the U.S. Department of Justice [3]. Group 2: Conditions and Synergies - The approval came with conditions requiring Capital One to address enforcement issues related to Discover's past overcharging of merchants [4]. - The merger is expected to generate $1.5 billion in expense synergies and $1.2 billion in network synergies by 2027, leading to over 15% accretion to adjusted non-GAAP EPS by that year [6]. - The combined entity will have a pro forma CET1 ratio of approximately 14% at closing, strengthening Capital One's balance sheet [7]. Group 3: Customer Impact and Future Strategy - There will be no immediate changes to customer accounts or banking relationships, with customers receiving comprehensive information ahead of any changes [8]. - Capital One plans to continue offering Discover-branded credit card products alongside its existing consumer cards [8]. - The merger enhances Capital One's "Digital First" banking model, leveraging Discover's national direct savings bank to improve competitiveness against larger banks [9]. Group 4: Strategic Growth - Capital One has a history of strategic acquisitions aimed at diversifying its offerings and expanding market presence, transforming from a monoline credit card issuer to a diversified financial services firm [10]. - Over the past year, Capital One's shares have increased by 40.3%, outperforming the industry growth of 39% [11].

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Group 1: Company Overview - Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett has announced his resignation after 65 years, during which the company achieved a 20% compound annual return since 1965 [1] - American Express is a significant asset in Berkshire's portfolio, currently trading 15% below its 52-week high, presenting a buying opportunity [2] Group 2: Market Position and Competition - American Express processed $1.7 trillion in credit card purchase volume in 2023, capturing a 9% share of global purchase volume, significantly lower than Visa's 33% and Mastercard's 21% [3] - Unlike Visa and Mastercard, American Express operates a closed-loop payment system, managing both transaction processing and credit risk [4] Group 3: Target Market and Strategy - American Express focuses on affluent consumers, which helps maintain lower default rates and provides revenue stability during economic downturns [5] - The brand's strength is emphasized by Buffett, who highlighted the importance of the brand and customer aspirations [6] Group 4: Financial Performance - In Q1, American Express reported a network volume of $439.6 billion, a 5% increase from the previous year, and net interest income rose 11% to $4.2 billion [10] - The company's credit quality remains stable, with only 1.3% of card loans more than 30 days past due and net write-offs at 2.4% [11] Group 5: Investment Outlook - The stock's P/E ratio has decreased from 23.2 to 19.3, creating an opportunity for long-term investors [12] - Buffett's long-standing belief in American Express positions it as an excellent stock for investors to consider, especially if market conditions worsen [13]

Group 1: Berkshire Hathaway's Portfolio Overview - Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio includes blue chip stocks that are generally considered safe long-term investments, although some are currently struggling [1][2] - Top holdings such as Apple, American Express, and Occidental Petroleum have all seen declines of at least 5% this year, with some experiencing drops over 20% [2] Group 2: Apple Inc. (AAPL) - Apple remains the top holding in Berkshire's portfolio, known for its strong financials, high margins, and significant free cash flow [4] - The company reported a 5% increase in net sales to $95.4 billion for the first three months of the year, generating nearly $54 billion in cash from operations over the past six months [5] - Despite a 20% decline in stock price this year due to concerns over its artificial intelligence strategy, it is viewed as a solid long-term investment, trading at 32 times trailing earnings compared to over 41 at the beginning of the year [6] Group 3: American Express (AXP) - American Express, the second-largest holding in Berkshire's portfolio, has seen its stock rally recently but was still down more than 5% entering the week [7] - The company reported a 7% increase in revenue and a 9% rise in earnings per share, alleviating concerns about slowing growth [8] - With a price-to-earnings multiple of less than 20, American Express is considered a reasonably priced investment, especially given its affluent customer base [8] Group 4: Occidental Petroleum (OXY) - Occidental Petroleum, the seventh-largest holding in Berkshire's portfolio, has faced a 21% decline this year amid lower commodity prices [9] - The company has experienced significant earnings volatility, with operating profits ranging from $4.7 billion to $13.7 billion over the past four years [10] - Investing in Occidental now could be advantageous for exposure to oil and gas, especially with a dividend yield of 2.4%, which surpasses the S&P 500 average of 1.4% [11]

Core Viewpoint - Capital One and American Express are significant players in the U.S. financial services sector, focusing on credit card issuance and consumer lending, with their revenues primarily derived from interest income, transaction fees, and customer spending [1][3]. Group 1: Company Strategies and Market Position - Capital One targets consumer and small business segments with a traditional banking approach, while American Express focuses on affluent, premium cardholders with a closed-loop payments network [2]. - Capital One's strategic acquisition of Discover Financial Services for $35 billion aims to enhance its market position and expand its payment network capabilities, making it the largest U.S. credit card issuer by balances [5][6]. - American Express leverages its dual role as a credit card issuer and network operator, allowing it to capture a larger share of transaction economics, contributing to a more profitable business model [14]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Projections - Both companies are affected by macroeconomic factors such as interest rates, consumer spending, and inflation, with recent stock declines reflecting cautious investor sentiment—Capital One down 6.6% and American Express down 11.2% over the past three months [3]. - Capital One's revenues have a five-year CAGR of 6.5%, while net loans held for investment recorded a CAGR of 4.3%, indicating encouraging revenue prospects [8]. - American Express anticipates revenue growth of 8-10% for 2025, with a three-year CAGR of 15.9% for revenues net of interest expenses [19]. Group 3: Financial Health and Valuation - As of March 31, 2025, American Express had $52.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, indicating strong financial health, while Capital One's net interest income has been rising with a CAGR of 6% over the past five years [10][20]. - Capital One's current P/E ratio is 11.32X, higher than its five-year median, while American Express trades at a trailing P/TB of 17.24X, lower than its five-year median, reflecting differing growth trajectories [25][26]. - American Express has a return on equity (ROE) of 32.48%, significantly higher than Capital One's 9.63%, showcasing its efficient use of shareholder funds [26]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - Capital One's acquisition of Discover Financial may create synergies but poses integration challenges in the near term, making it less favorable for immediate investment [32]. - American Express appears better positioned to navigate current economic challenges, supported by its premium client base and strategic investments, making it a more attractive investment choice despite its higher valuation [33].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported record revenues of $66 billion for FY 2024, an increase of 10% on an FX adjusted basis [31] - Annual net income exceeded $10 billion, translating to $14.01 per share, which is a 25% year-over-year increase [31] - Q1 2025 revenues reached $17 billion, up 8% year-over-year on an FX adjusted basis, with net income of $2.6 billion and earnings per share of $3.64 [32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total billed business amounted to $1.6 trillion, driven by strong card member spending [31] - The company acquired 13 million new proprietary card members in 2024, reflecting strong demand for premium fee-based products [31] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company continues to see consistent spending trends among its premium customer base, despite economic uncertainties [36] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on four strategic imperatives: expanding leadership in the premium consumer space, strengthening its position in commercial payments, enhancing its global integrated network, and building its unique global position [31] - The company aims to drive sustained growth by delivering on its brand promise and innovating for customers [33] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's positioning to build on its strong foundation and drive sustained growth [33] - The company acknowledges the ongoing economic forces but believes it is too early to predict their impact on customer spending [36] Other Important Information - The company celebrated its 175th year in business, highlighting its journey of innovation and transformation [32] Q&A Session Summary Question: How does the Compensation Committee use the compensation actually paid total compensation figures in its calculation of the CEO target total compensation award for the upcoming year? - The company refers shareholders to its pay versus performance disclosures and the Board's process for determining annual compensation [28] Question: Would Amex consider adopting a guarantee of nondiscriminatory advertising policies? - The company stated it does not employ discriminatory practices and complies with all required laws [28] Question: Does the company see AXP credit card customers pulling back on big ticket purchases? - Management noted consistent spending trends among premium customers and stated it is too early to predict future impacts [36] Question: Will deglobalization and anti-American sentiment affect the company's strategy? - Management confirmed that these factors do not change the company's strategy, emphasizing its strong value proposition and global partnerships [38]

Group 1 - The U.S. consumer landscape in early 2025 is characterized by a divide between lower-income earners who are cutting back on spending and wealthier individuals who continue to spend on luxury items and experiences [1][2][3] - Lower-income consumers are focusing on essential purchases, leading to a decline in discretionary spending, while affluent consumers are increasing their spending on dining and travel [2][4] - Synchrony reported a 4% decline in spending among its lower-income card users, contrasting with a 6% increase in spending at American Express and similar growth at JPMorgan Chase, indicating a disparity in consumer behavior based on income levels [4][5] Group 2 - Synchrony CEO Brian Doubles noted that while the overall consumer remains in good shape, spending is becoming more selective, particularly among lower-income users who have been reducing discretionary spending for about a year due to inflation [5]