Core Viewpoint - Both Orchid Island Capital (ORC) and Starwood Property Trust (STWD) are mortgage REITs with different investment strategies, where ORC focuses on agency residential mortgage-backed securities and STWD has a diversified portfolio including commercial real estate lending [1][2] Summary of ORC - ORC exclusively invests in Agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), which limits credit risks but increases sensitivity to interest rate movements [3] - The recent decline in mortgage rates is expected to improve ORC's book value as spreads in the Agency market tighten, enhancing net interest spread and overall yield [4] - ORC has a strong dividend yield of 20.4% and has increased its dividend three times in the past five years, with $446.5 million in cash and no debt as of March 31, 2025, indicating sustainable capital distribution [5] Summary of STWD - STWD's investment strategy includes commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) and related commercial real estate assets, with a diversified portfolio valued at $1.02 billion as of March 31, 2025 [6] - The company has engaged in acquisitions and divestitures to optimize its portfolio, including the sale of 16 retail properties for $387.1 million, recognizing a gain of $92 million [7] - STWD has a concerning liquidity position with $692 million in cash and long-term debt of $18.4 billion, which may pose risks in a worsening macroeconomic environment [8] Performance and Valuation - In the past three months, STWD shares rose by 6.9% while ORC shares increased by 9.3%, outperforming the industry growth of 6.2% [11] - ORC is trading at a 12-month forward P/E of 0.79X, lower than its five-year median of 0.90X, while STWD is at 1.03X, lower than its five-year median of 1.04X [14] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ORC's earnings indicates significant growth of 450% in 2025 and 39.7% in 2026, while STWD's earnings are expected to decline by 8.9% in 2025 [18][20] Investment Outlook - ORC is viewed as a more resilient and better-valued option due to its focus on Agency RMBS in a declining rate environment, strong liquidity, and high dividend yield [22] - In contrast, STWD's heavy debt burden and weaker earnings outlook raise concerns, making ORC the more compelling opportunity for investors seeking stable income with lower risk [23]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's market capitalization as of June 30 is over $1.5 billion, representing nearly 50% growth since June 2024 [8] - Net interest income continues to trend upwards as new investments with attractive yields are added to the portfolio [10] - The portfolio has grown to $14 billion, a 25% increase since the end of the first quarter and over 50% larger than the same time last year [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company raised $560 million of new capital this year, allowing it to continue raising capital at a premium to book value [11] - The investment portfolio grew by over $3 billion in the quarter, reflecting a strategic increase in leverage from 7.4% to 8.3% [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) continue to offer attractive liquidity, credit quality, and return potential, with ROEs on newly acquired positions ranging from the mid-teens to low 20% [18] - Mortgage spreads remain wide, and the net supply of Agency RMBS is low by historical standards, creating a medium-term headwind for spread tightening [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on raising capital, deploying it into historically cheap investments, and managing its portfolio through volatile periods [7] - A long-term strategy to build a world-class operating platform includes bringing several functions in-house to enhance scale and organizational resilience [13] - The company aims to be the manager of choice for the agency mortgage market, leveraging its position as a significant player in the mortgage REIT community [42] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the current environment as highly favorable for long-term capital deployment, with wide agency MBS spreads supported by a technical backdrop [22] - The company is well-prepared to capitalize on market dynamics and generate strong risk-adjusted returns despite potential volatility [22] Other Important Information - The company has appointed Michael Angelo as the chief legal officer and corporate secretary, bringing relevant experience from various financial institutions [5] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about the leverage range you're targeting? - Management indicated that leverage has been flexed down when the risk environment does not warrant incremental risk, and they are currently at a level that reflects a return to normal [29][30] Question: What conditions might require other investors to be more active in the mortgage-backed space? - Management noted that banks would likely return when they see actual Fed rate cuts, while money managers have been active due to attractive mortgage valuations relative to corporates [38][40] Question: What is the current thinking behind the coupon allocation between pools versus TBAs? - Management explained that they are favoring a larger pool position due to the stable economic return profile and the ability to hedge effectively with interest rate swaps [56][62] Question: Any thoughts on adding longer duration as you go down in coupon on the hedge side? - Management confirmed that their hedges remain focused on the longer part of the curve, targeting a duration that is generally flat with the overall portfolio [72][74] Question: Any one-time items in the G&A expense line item? - Management indicated that the first half of the year tends to be higher due to annual meetings and compensation increases, but they expect expenses to trend down in the latter half of the year [76]

Core Viewpoint - AGNC Investment offers a high dividend yield exceeding 15%, significantly higher than the S&P 500's 1.3% and the average REIT's 4.1%, but investors should be cautious as high yields do not guarantee sustainable income [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - AGNC Investment operates as a mortgage REIT, which differs from traditional property-owning REITs that buy and lease properties [2]. - The company purchases pooled mortgages that are structured into bond-like securities, resembling a bond mutual fund rather than direct property ownership [4]. Group 2: Dividend Trends - AGNC Investment's dividend has been on a declining trend for years, with historical volatility in its payouts [5]. - The mortgage REIT sector, including AGNC, often experiences fluctuating dividends, which can lead to yield traps for investors expecting consistent income [7]. Group 3: Total Return Perspective - AGNC Investment aims for attractive total returns, with reinvested dividends playing a crucial role in achieving this goal [8]. - Despite a significant drop in stock price, AGNC's total return has been competitive with the S&P 500, and in some periods, it has outperformed the index [10]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - For investors seeking strong long-term results, reinvesting dividends is essential, as spending them can lead to diminished income and capital [11]. - While there is potential for AGNC to increase its dividend, the company has a history of dividend cuts, making it important for investors to understand the inherent volatility in the mREIT business model [12].

Industry Overview - The Zacks REIT and Equity Trust industry is experiencing volatility in mortgage rates due to macroeconomic uncertainty, leading to earnings pressure in the near term [1] - The industry consists of mortgage REITs (mREITs) that invest in and originate mortgages and mortgage-backed securities (MBS), focusing on residential or commercial mortgage markets [3] - Agency securities, backed by the federal government, are considered safer investments, limiting credit risks for mREITs [3] Current Challenges - High interest rates and volatility in mortgage markets are causing slight decreases in tangible book values for agency mortgage REITs, although they have been more stable than in 2023 [4] - The central bank's decision to maintain steady interest rates, despite a previous cut of 100 basis points in 2024, is increasing earnings pressure for highly leveraged mREITs [5] - Many industry players are cutting dividends to levels that can be covered by earnings, potentially leading to capital outflows and further declines in book values [5] Investment Strategies - mREITs are adopting a conservative approach to investments, focusing on risk and liquidity management, which may impede portfolio growth and robust returns in the short term [6] - Despite lower mortgage rates compared to last year, the demand for purchase applications and refinancing is improving, indicating some latent market demand [7] Performance Metrics - The Zacks REIT and Equity Trust industry ranks 162, placing it in the bottom 34% of 246 Zacks industries, indicating underperformance in the near term [8] - The industry's current-year earnings estimate has decreased by 6.5% over the last year, reflecting a negative earnings outlook [9] - Over the past year, the industry has gained 2.7%, underperforming the broader Zacks Finance sector's rise of 18.7% and the S&P 500's growth of 12.5% [11] Valuation - The industry is trading at a trailing 12-month price-to-book (P/BV) ratio of 1.00X, compared to the S&P 500's 8.42X, indicating a significant discount [14] - The Zacks Finance sector's trailing 12-month P/BV is 4.26X, further highlighting the industry's undervaluation [16] Company Highlights - **Annaly Capital Management (NLY)**: Focuses on prudent asset selection and capital allocation, with a diversified investment strategy that includes traditional Agency MBSs and non-agency assets. The company's 2025 earnings are estimated at $2.87 per share, reflecting a 6.3% year-over-year increase [19][22] - **Dynex Capital (DX)**: Engages in mortgage and consumer finance, with a focus on multi-family and commercial real estate loans. The company's 2025 earnings estimates are $1.97 per share, indicating a significant year-over-year jump of 662.9% [25][28] - **Ellington Financial (EFC)**: Invests in a diverse array of financial assets, including residential and commercial mortgage loans. The company's 2025 earnings estimates are $1.65 per share, showing a year-over-year growth of 13% [31][34]

Core Insights - Albert Anthony is a Croatian-American business author and media contributor with a focus on financial markets, launching a book titled "Financial Markets: The Next Generation" in 2025 [1] - He has a non-traditional financial background, having worked as an analyst in the IT sector for Fortune 500 companies, which has informed his approach to equities research [1] - In 2021, he founded his own equities research firm, Albert Anthony & Company, which operates remotely [1] Background and Experience - Albert Anthony grew up in the New York City area and has ties to Austin, Texas, and Croatia, where he has participated in numerous business and innovation events [1] - He holds degrees and certifications from institutions such as Drew University and the Corporate Finance Institute [1] - In addition to his financial commentary, he has experience in European casting agencies and has appeared in regional media in Croatia [1] Future Endeavors - A new YouTube show titled "Financial Markets with Albert Anthony" is set to launch in 2025, where he will provide market commentary similar to his written work [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the risks associated with high-yield investments, particularly those yielding over 9%, which often lead to dividend cuts and declining prices [1] - The focus is on baby bonds, which are preferred for their ease of trading and ability to generate strong yields with less volatility compared to regular bonds [2] - PennyMac Mortgage Trust (PMT) has announced a new baby bond, PMTW, which has a 9% coupon rate, similar to PMTV, with minor differences in ex-dividend dates and pricing [3][4] Group 2 - PMTW has seen high trading volume since its recent launch, with a goal of issuing $100 million, potentially increasing to $115 million with over-allotment [6] - The issuance of around 4 million shares is expected, with the anticipation of sellers closing positions before the weekend [7] - The yield to maturity for PMTW is approximately 9.49%, with a maturity date about five years out, providing a reasonable income stream [12] Group 3 - PMTW shares are currently within the target price range, with a calculated yield to maturity of 9.35% at a price of $25.05 [13] - The article emphasizes the importance of not using market orders due to potential price jumps and the strategy of placing bids instead [8][11] - The company plans to actively trade this position based on yield changes and the spread between these bonds and similar duration Treasuries [12]

Core Insights - AGNC Investment Corp. is adopting a proactive and defensive portfolio management strategy aimed at long-term growth by frequently adjusting asset allocations and hedging strategies to mitigate risks while seizing yield opportunities [1] Portfolio Management - The company has maintained a robust hedge position, covering 91% of its Investment Securities Repo, TBA positions, and other debt as of March 31, 2025, indicating a strong focus on protecting against interest rate volatility [2] - AGNC has strategically reduced its exposure to more volatile non-agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and shifted towards higher-coupon Agency MBS, which enhances prepayment probability and supports better cash flow visibility [3] Market Positioning - With spreads between Agency MBS and benchmarks reaching near-pandemic highs in early April 2025, AGNC's $77.9 billion Agency MBS portfolio is well-positioned for compelling forward returns, particularly on a leveraged basis, as these securities are backed by Government-Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) [4] - Despite potential fluctuations in short-term earnings due to market volatility, AGNC's disciplined active management and defensive positioning provide a solid foundation for long-term growth [5] Competitive Landscape - AGNC competes with Annaly Capital Management (NLY) and Starwood Property Trust (STWD) within the mortgage REITs industry, with differing investment approaches among the companies [6] - Annaly pursues a diversified strategy combining traditional Agency MBS with non-agency and credit-sensitive assets, focusing on acquiring newly originated mortgage servicing rights (MSRs) to enhance returns [7] - Starwood focuses primarily on commercial real estate, including commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) and real estate debt investments, maintaining steady income through principal repayments and targeted acquisitions [8] Performance Metrics - AGNC shares have gained 6.4% year to date, outperforming the industry's growth of 2.8% [9] - The company trades at a forward price-to-tangible book ratio of 1.08X, above the industry's average of 0.96X [13] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AGNC's 2025 and 2026 earnings implies year-over-year declines of 11.2% and 3.9%, respectively, with estimates remaining unchanged over the past 30 days [15]

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla., June 24, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Sunrise Realty Trust, Inc. (“SUNS”) (Nasdaq: SUNS), a lender on the Tannenbaum Capital Group (“TCG”) Real Estate platform, today announced that it will release its financial results for the second quarter ending June 30, 2025 on Thursday, August 7th, 2025 before market open. Management will review SUNS’ financial results at 10:00 am ET via webcast available on the Investor Relations website at ir.sunriserealtytrust.com. Participants are also invited t ...

Core Viewpoint - Mortgage REITs offer a double-digit yield, making them appealing to income investors, while the broader REIT sector has faced challenges in recent years [1] Group 1 - Mortgage REITs are traditionally attractive to income investors due to their ability to generate high yields [1] - The REIT sector has been largely inactive in recent years, indicating potential challenges or shifts in market dynamics [1]

Group 1 - Mortgage REITs, such as BrightSpire Capital (NYSE: BRSP), are influenced by interest rate environments, which can make them challenging investments [1] - BrightSpire Capital aims to deliver attractive total returns through a diversified portfolio of senior loans [1] - The investment strategy includes a mix of classic dividend growth stocks, Business Development Companies, REITs, and Closed End Funds to enhance income while achieving total returns comparable to traditional index funds like the S&P [1]