来源：市场资讯 （来源：吴说） 作者：@XinGPT 原文链接：https://x.com/xingpt/status/2019792494444359955 声明：本文为转载内容，读者可通过原文链接获得更多信息。如作者对转载形式有任何异议，请联系我们，我们将按照作者要求进行修改。转载仅用于信息 分享，不构成任何投资建议，不代表吴说观点与立场。 快到春节这一波接一波的暴跌，先是黄金白银高位崩盘，然后是加密开始泄洪一般毫无支持地下跌，突破所有关键支撑位，最后美股、港股大 A 接连跳 水，白天亏了晚上亏，左边亏完右边亏，资产配置在不同的车上，都是所有车都翻了。 万幸的是我之前加密资产基本上都清仓，而股市的当头斩没躲过，某些股票比如 Figma 、小鹏汽车持仓跌了超过 70% ，（不是全部资产的 70% ，原谅我也 标题党了一次）。 · Anthropic 的法律 AI 再厉害，有卖出去过多少收入吗，收入预计能超过 SAP 吗？ SAP 这些软件厂商就啥也不动等着被颠覆？ · 谷歌资本开支高了，你们说担心现金流；资本开支低了，你们肯定又要担心支出不够， AI 上下游产业链缺少资金，谷歌 AI 要落后； · Wars ...

Group 1 - Standard Chartered's economist for Greater China, Chen Guanlin, expects HIBOR to closely reflect the trends of SOFR, with a forecast of 3-month HIBOR fluctuating around 3% in 2026, down from a previous estimate of 3.5% [1] - The bank anticipates that the U.S. economy will see accelerated growth due to AI-related investments, which may lead to an increase in inflation, thereby limiting the Federal Reserve's capacity for rate cuts in 2026 [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has intervened in the currency market by buying HKD and selling USD, resulting in a reduction of the banking system's aggregate balance from HKD 173.4 billion at the end of May to HKD 54.1 billion by the end of August [1] Group 2 - Standard Chartered indicates that due to a slowdown in capital inflows to the stock market and the ongoing recovery of the Hong Kong real estate market, there is limited room for further depreciation of the USD/HKD exchange rate in early 2026 [2] - The bank notes that seasonal factors towards the end of the year and index adjustments may lead to a slight tightening of HKD liquidity [2] - Ongoing debt swap activities may exert further appreciation pressure on HKD cross-currency swaps [2]

Group 1 - The core issue highlighted is the significant widening of the SOFR spread, reaching 32 basis points, indicating a tightening liquidity situation in the market [1][3] - SOFR, which represents the borrowing rate between financial institutions, has seen a divergence from the Federal Reserve's interest rates, signaling that banks are reluctant to lend, leading to a liquidity crunch [3][5] - The liquidity crisis has forced leveraged players, such as hedge funds and brokers, to sell off assets rapidly to raise cash, resulting in a sharp decline in various financial assets, including stocks and cryptocurrencies [5][12] Group 2 - The liquidity issues were exacerbated by the U.S. government shutdown, which caused funds that should have flowed into the market to be locked in the Treasury's accounts, further tightening liquidity [8][12] - SOFR has replaced LIBOR as the primary interest rate benchmark, being based on actual transactions, making it a more reliable indicator of market conditions [10] - Following the resolution of the government budget crisis, there was a temporary recovery in the stock market as funds began to flow back into the market, but concerns remain about potential future liquidity crises [12][14]

中国工商银行（亚洲）发布的报告构建了"3×3美元流动性分析矩阵"，通过联邦基金市场、回购市场、离岸美元市场三大核心市场，结合规模、价格、政策 三类指标，系统监测美元流动性变化，为市场分析提供全面框架。 联邦基金市场作为美元流动性基石，在充裕准备金框架下以规模指标为核心观测点。准备金总量直接反映银行体系基础流动性，其变动受美联储公开市场操 作（QE/QT）和负债结构（TGA账户收支、RRP工具使用）影响。当前美联储缩表持续推进，但RRP工具发挥"缓冲垫"作用，截至2025年9月，准备金总量 3.2万亿美元，占银行总资产12.9%，仍处于充裕区间，联邦基金利率稳定在政策区间内。贴现窗口作为辅助指标，因"污名化效应"日常使用克制，仅在危机 时大规模动用。 回购市场是流动性重要枢纽，重点关注SOFR价格变动、一级交易商做市能力及政策工具使用。价格维度，SOFR作为定价基准，其与ON RRP的利差扩大预 示流动性收紧，2025年9月利差中枢升至16BP，显示市场边际收紧。规模维度，一级交易商国债逆回购规模与准备金比值升至0.88，虽未达危机水平，但反 映压力积聚。政策层面，常备回购便利（SRF）作为"利率天花板"，20 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the inevitability of government debt and the political incentives behind it, emphasizing that governments prefer to issue debt rather than raise taxes to fund expenditures [2][3] - It highlights the relationship between government borrowing and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, suggesting that an increase in government debt will lead to an increase in the money supply, benefiting the liquidity of the dollar and potentially driving up the prices of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies [3][32] - The article outlines the projected federal deficits, estimating around $2 trillion annually, and discusses the implications for U.S. Treasury bond issuance and financing [6][7] Group 2 - The article identifies the primary buyers of U.S. debt, including foreign central banks, the private sector, and commercial banks, concluding that the marginal buyers are RV hedge funds, particularly those based in the Cayman Islands [9][14][12] - It explains the trading strategies of RV funds, which involve buying U.S. Treasury bonds and financing these purchases through repurchase agreements (repos) [19][21] - The article discusses the role of the Federal Reserve in managing short-term interest rates and how it influences the liquidity in the market, particularly through tools like the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) [22][28] Group 3 - The article warns of a potential liquidity crisis if RV funds cannot secure financing at favorable rates, which would hinder their ability to purchase U.S. debt and impact government financing [27][26] - It introduces the concept of "stealth quantitative easing," suggesting that the SRF will become a primary channel for injecting liquidity into the financial system without being labeled as traditional quantitative easing [32][31] - The article concludes that the current market stagnation presents opportunities, particularly as the government prepares to release additional liquidity once operations resume, which could reignite interest in cryptocurrencies [33]

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's Standing Repo Facility (SRF) is characterized as a new "stealth money printing vehicle" [1] - When money market conditions tighten (SOFR exceeds the Fed Funds rate), the Fed increases liquidity by lending through the SRF [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Distributable earnings for Q3 2025 were $4.2 million or $0.29 per share, at the high end of guidance [4][12] - A regular quarterly dividend of $0.28 per share was declared, equating to an annualized yield of 11% [4] - The company ended the quarter with $77 million in cash and $310 million in capacity on secured financing facilities [14][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The portfolio consisted of $642 million in floating-rate first mortgage commitments across 22 loans, with a weighted average all-in yield of 8.2% and a weighted average loan-to-value of 67% [5] - The weighted average risk rating at quarter end was 2.9, with all loans current on debt service and no non-accrual balances [6][15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Market sentiment improved following the Federal Reserve's rate cut in September, driving new financing activity [9] - Demand for floating-rate bridge financing remains strong, particularly due to 2021 and 2022 vintage floating-rate multifamily loan maturities [9][10] - The company is currently evaluating over $1 billion of loan opportunities, with a shift towards a higher proportion of acquisition financing [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to deploy capital into opportunities that offer the best relative value in the current environment, focusing on disciplined capital deployment [8] - The strategy includes maintaining strong sponsor relationships and leveraging underwriting and asset management expertise to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that competition remains elevated, but they continue to find compelling opportunities that meet return thresholds [8] - Expectations of further rate cuts before year-end are anticipated to enhance borrower engagement and transaction volume [7][9] - The company expects fourth-quarter distributable earnings to be in the range of $0.29-$0.31 per share [13] Other Important Information - The company reported full repayment of two loans totaling $53.8 million during the quarter, with expectations for additional repayments in 2026 [7] - The CECL reserve remains modest at 150 basis points of total loan commitments, unchanged from the previous quarter [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expected repayments for the remainder of the year - Management confirmed that the only expected repayment before year-end is $15.3 million, with the majority of repayments scheduled for 2026 [17] Question: Sourcing of new loans and competition - Management indicated that most transactions come from traditional channels like mortgage banking, with a solid reputation helping to win loans [19] Question: Impact of lower SOFR on CECL reserve - Management explained that while lower SOFR could impact the CECL reserve, many factors influence it, and they maintain a conservative approach [23][24] Question: Demand for multifamily equity - Management noted that there is always demand for equity capital, especially with many loan maturities requiring additional equity [25][26] Question: Activity of banks in multifamily debt markets - Management observed that larger banks are active in the multifamily space, while smaller regional banks are more selective [28] Question: Cash balance increase - Management attributed the increase in cash balance to timing of repayments and the expectation of new loan originations [31] Question: NIM compression outlook - Management believes they are at the trough of NIM compression and expects to identify appropriate transactions for better returns [35]

Labor Market Analysis - Haver Analytics estimates weekly jobless claims at 217,000 for the week of October 11th, compared to the government's 228,000 [1] - Continuing claims are estimated to be up at 1.942 million versus 1.92 million [2] - The economy is characterized as a relatively low fire, low hire environment, with no significant changes since the government stopped publishing data [4] - Goldman Sachs reports similar jobless claim numbers [5] Financial Market Conditions - Secured Overnight Funding Rate (SOFR) is at one-month highs, indicating a clamor for high-quality collateral and tightness in the financial market [11][12] - The rise in SOFR is reversing the effect of the Fed's rate cut on September 17th [13] - The fiscal year ended with 1.22 trillion to service the debt [16] Monetary Policy and Market Outlook - There's a divergence between jobless claims data and the Fed's concerns about the labor market [8] - The relationship between stocks and treasury yields is influenced by a "flight to good collateral" [9] - The current situation is not comparable to the great credit crisis [10] - Chairman Powell mentioned the possibility of ending quantitative tightening in the coming months due to some tightening in financial markets [17]

Core Viewpoint - Powell's primary motivation for halting the balance sheet reduction is to prevent a liquidity crisis in the financial markets [4][19][21]. Group 1: Primary Motivation - Powell observed signs indicating that liquidity conditions are tightening, including a general rise in repo rates and specific temporary pressures on certain dates [4][19]. - The plan aims to avoid a situation similar to the liquidity crunch experienced in September 2019, where the SOFR spiked dramatically due to a sudden drop in bank reserves [18][20]. - The Federal Reserve's long-term strategy is to stop reducing the balance sheet when bank reserves are slightly above what is considered "adequate" [21][22]. Group 2: Secondary Motivation - Powell noted an increase in downside risks to employment and described the labor market as "slightly fatigued," suggesting that halting the balance sheet reduction could help stabilize the financial environment [23][24]. - This shift in policy is seen as a preventive measure to avoid exacerbating recession risks amid signs of economic fatigue [24]. - Powell emphasized the importance of clear communication to allow market participants to adjust their portfolios in response to the anticipated policy changes [26].

Core Insights - Figure Certificate Company is launching its SEC-registered security token YLDS on the Sui blockchain, providing regulated yield and direct USD access without traditional crypto exchanges [1][2] - YLDS offers a yield of SOFR minus 35 basis points, backed by short-term treasury securities, distinguishing it from unregulated stablecoins [4][2] - The integration of YLDS with Sui's blockchain enables instant peer-to-peer transfers while adhering to regulatory frameworks [5][6] Company Overview - Figure Certificate Company is registered with the SEC as a face-amount certificate company under the Investment Company Act of 1940, ensuring regulatory oversight for YLDS [2] - The company has submitted letters to the SEC regarding YLDS trading pairs as a settlement mechanism for non-security crypto assets, indicating proactive regulatory engagement [7] Industry Context - The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) serves as the benchmark interest rate for dollar-denominated loans and derivatives, having replaced LIBOR in 2023 [3] - YLDS provides a yield-bearing alternative to traditional stablecoins, which typically maintain a fixed one-dollar peg without yielding returns [4][6] - The collaboration between Figure and Mysten Labs aims to connect regulated financial products with blockchain technology, reflecting a trend towards integrating traditional finance with digital assets [6]