渣打指出，如果美联储在2026年加大降息幅度以稳定劳动力市场，该行预计HIBOR存在下行风险。此 外，首次公开募股(IPO)、股票分红派息和其他季节性需求可能继续引发利率波动。 渣打续指，鉴于股市资金流入放缓以及香港房地产市场仍在复苏之中，该行预计2026年初美元兑港元即 期汇价进一步下行的空间有限;尽管由于年未季节性因素，以及指数调整带来程度稍弱一些的影响，港 元流动性可能会出现初步收紧。同时，由于债务掉期活动持续，港元交叉货币掉期可能面临进一步的升 值压力。 渣打大中华区经济师陈冠霖表示，该行预计HIBOR将基本反映SOFR的走势。目前该行预计美联储在 2026年不再减息，并预计3个月HIBOR将在3%附近(此前为3.5%)波动。 他补充，随着受惠于AI相关投资带动，预期美国经济增长有所加快，美国通胀率有机会上升，对于美 国减息空间有一定影响，料美联储2026年减息空间不大。 渣打表示，今年6月下旬至8月中旬期间，由于多次触发港元弱方兑换保证，香港金管局根据联系汇率制 度购入港元并卖出美元;因此，银行体系总结余从5月底的1734亿港元缩减至8月底的541亿港元，并在10 月的最新更新中已趋于稳定。随着银行 ...

大家好，我是乔叔，今天咱们唠一唠去年11月那场让市场"跳水"的大事件，到底是哪个金融指标暗地里 敲响了警报——SOFR息差有啥猫腻？ 最近，华尔街不少圈内人几乎是同一时间盯上了一个平常容易被忽视的数字。这个数字名叫SOFR，看 似不起眼，但它和美联储给银行的钱"底价"之间的差距突然拉大，达到32个基点，这是疫情后都少见的 罕见高位。 这种变动，对于熟悉市场水流的人来讲，就是资金突然变得难找、贵得发烫的信号。表面看上去，市场 还是那些老面孔，但台下资金已开始脱轨，气氛压抑得有点像暴风雨来临前的闷热。 危机暗涌：市场资金突然吃紧 SOFR其实就是金融机构之间借钱的利率。正常情况下，这个利率和美联储那套"给银行存钱的利息"差 不了多少，大家都能轻松借到钱。 可差值一旦上去，说明银行宁可把钱留着，也不愿意轻易借出去。那段时间市场就像被抽走水的鱼塘， 钱少得厉害，做生意的人都感受到水位骤降。 尤其是那些靠短期贷款维持生意的投资公司，每天都得低头琢磨怎么填补资金窟窿。 杠杆玩家被逼上绝路，资产价格集体跳水 就这样从纳斯达克到比特币，从外到内，各路市场像被推着冲下滑梯一样，短短一个月里，数不清的金 融资产狂跌。 投资人表面 ...

中国工商银行（亚洲）发布的报告构建了"3×3美元流动性分析矩阵"，通过联邦基金市场、回购市场、离岸美元市场三大核心市场，结合规模、价格、政策 三类指标，系统监测美元流动性变化，为市场分析提供全面框架。 联邦基金市场作为美元流动性基石，在充裕准备金框架下以规模指标为核心观测点。准备金总量直接反映银行体系基础流动性，其变动受美联储公开市场操 作（QE/QT）和负债结构（TGA账户收支、RRP工具使用）影响。当前美联储缩表持续推进，但RRP工具发挥"缓冲垫"作用，截至2025年9月，准备金总量 3.2万亿美元，占银行总资产12.9%，仍处于充裕区间，联邦基金利率稳定在政策区间内。贴现窗口作为辅助指标，因"污名化效应"日常使用克制，仅在危机 时大规模动用。 回购市场是流动性重要枢纽，重点关注SOFR价格变动、一级交易商做市能力及政策工具使用。价格维度，SOFR作为定价基准，其与ON RRP的利差扩大预 示流动性收紧，2025年9月利差中枢升至16BP，显示市场边际收紧。规模维度，一级交易商国债逆回购规模与准备金比值升至0.88，虽未达危机水平，但反 映压力积聚。政策层面，常备回购便利（SRF）作为"利率天花板"，20 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the inevitability of government debt and the political incentives behind it, emphasizing that governments prefer to issue debt rather than raise taxes to fund expenditures [2][3] - It highlights the relationship between government borrowing and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, suggesting that an increase in government debt will lead to an increase in the money supply, benefiting the liquidity of the dollar and potentially driving up the prices of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies [3][32] - The article outlines the projected federal deficits, estimating around $2 trillion annually, and discusses the implications for U.S. Treasury bond issuance and financing [6][7] Group 2 - The article identifies the primary buyers of U.S. debt, including foreign central banks, the private sector, and commercial banks, concluding that the marginal buyers are RV hedge funds, particularly those based in the Cayman Islands [9][14][12] - It explains the trading strategies of RV funds, which involve buying U.S. Treasury bonds and financing these purchases through repurchase agreements (repos) [19][21] - The article discusses the role of the Federal Reserve in managing short-term interest rates and how it influences the liquidity in the market, particularly through tools like the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) [22][28] Group 3 - The article warns of a potential liquidity crisis if RV funds cannot secure financing at favorable rates, which would hinder their ability to purchase U.S. debt and impact government financing [27][26] - It introduces the concept of "stealth quantitative easing," suggesting that the SRF will become a primary channel for injecting liquidity into the financial system without being labeled as traditional quantitative easing [32][31] - The article concludes that the current market stagnation presents opportunities, particularly as the government prepares to release additional liquidity once operations resume, which could reignite interest in cryptocurrencies [33]

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's Standing Repo Facility (SRF) is characterized as a new "stealth money printing vehicle" [1] - When money market conditions tighten (SOFR exceeds the Fed Funds rate), the Fed increases liquidity by lending through the SRF [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Distributable earnings for Q3 2025 were $4.2 million or $0.29 per share, at the high end of guidance [4][12] - A regular quarterly dividend of $0.28 per share was declared, equating to an annualized yield of 11% [4] - The company ended the quarter with $77 million in cash and $310 million in capacity on secured financing facilities [14][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The portfolio consisted of $642 million in floating-rate first mortgage commitments across 22 loans, with a weighted average all-in yield of 8.2% and a weighted average loan-to-value of 67% [5] - The weighted average risk rating at quarter end was 2.9, with all loans current on debt service and no non-accrual balances [6][15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Market sentiment improved following the Federal Reserve's rate cut in September, driving new financing activity [9] - Demand for floating-rate bridge financing remains strong, particularly due to 2021 and 2022 vintage floating-rate multifamily loan maturities [9][10] - The company is currently evaluating over $1 billion of loan opportunities, with a shift towards a higher proportion of acquisition financing [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to deploy capital into opportunities that offer the best relative value in the current environment, focusing on disciplined capital deployment [8] - The strategy includes maintaining strong sponsor relationships and leveraging underwriting and asset management expertise to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that competition remains elevated, but they continue to find compelling opportunities that meet return thresholds [8] - Expectations of further rate cuts before year-end are anticipated to enhance borrower engagement and transaction volume [7][9] - The company expects fourth-quarter distributable earnings to be in the range of $0.29-$0.31 per share [13] Other Important Information - The company reported full repayment of two loans totaling $53.8 million during the quarter, with expectations for additional repayments in 2026 [7] - The CECL reserve remains modest at 150 basis points of total loan commitments, unchanged from the previous quarter [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expected repayments for the remainder of the year - Management confirmed that the only expected repayment before year-end is $15.3 million, with the majority of repayments scheduled for 2026 [17] Question: Sourcing of new loans and competition - Management indicated that most transactions come from traditional channels like mortgage banking, with a solid reputation helping to win loans [19] Question: Impact of lower SOFR on CECL reserve - Management explained that while lower SOFR could impact the CECL reserve, many factors influence it, and they maintain a conservative approach [23][24] Question: Demand for multifamily equity - Management noted that there is always demand for equity capital, especially with many loan maturities requiring additional equity [25][26] Question: Activity of banks in multifamily debt markets - Management observed that larger banks are active in the multifamily space, while smaller regional banks are more selective [28] Question: Cash balance increase - Management attributed the increase in cash balance to timing of repayments and the expectation of new loan originations [31] Question: NIM compression outlook - Management believes they are at the trough of NIM compression and expects to identify appropriate transactions for better returns [35]

Labor Market Analysis - Haver Analytics estimates weekly jobless claims at 217,000 for the week of October 11th, compared to the government's 228,000 [1] - Continuing claims are estimated to be up at 1.942 million versus 1.92 million [2] - The economy is characterized as a relatively low fire, low hire environment, with no significant changes since the government stopped publishing data [4] - Goldman Sachs reports similar jobless claim numbers [5] Financial Market Conditions - Secured Overnight Funding Rate (SOFR) is at one-month highs, indicating a clamor for high-quality collateral and tightness in the financial market [11][12] - The rise in SOFR is reversing the effect of the Fed's rate cut on September 17th [13] - The fiscal year ended with 1.22 trillion to service the debt [16] Monetary Policy and Market Outlook - There's a divergence between jobless claims data and the Fed's concerns about the labor market [8] - The relationship between stocks and treasury yields is influenced by a "flight to good collateral" [9] - The current situation is not comparable to the great credit crisis [10] - Chairman Powell mentioned the possibility of ending quantitative tightening in the coming months due to some tightening in financial markets [17]

Core Viewpoint - Powell's primary motivation for halting the balance sheet reduction is to prevent a liquidity crisis in the financial markets [4][19][21]. Group 1: Primary Motivation - Powell observed signs indicating that liquidity conditions are tightening, including a general rise in repo rates and specific temporary pressures on certain dates [4][19]. - The plan aims to avoid a situation similar to the liquidity crunch experienced in September 2019, where the SOFR spiked dramatically due to a sudden drop in bank reserves [18][20]. - The Federal Reserve's long-term strategy is to stop reducing the balance sheet when bank reserves are slightly above what is considered "adequate" [21][22]. Group 2: Secondary Motivation - Powell noted an increase in downside risks to employment and described the labor market as "slightly fatigued," suggesting that halting the balance sheet reduction could help stabilize the financial environment [23][24]. - This shift in policy is seen as a preventive measure to avoid exacerbating recession risks amid signs of economic fatigue [24]. - Powell emphasized the importance of clear communication to allow market participants to adjust their portfolios in response to the anticipated policy changes [26].

Core Insights - Figure Certificate Company is launching its SEC-registered security token YLDS on the Sui blockchain, providing regulated yield and direct USD access without traditional crypto exchanges [1][2] - YLDS offers a yield of SOFR minus 35 basis points, backed by short-term treasury securities, distinguishing it from unregulated stablecoins [4][2] - The integration of YLDS with Sui's blockchain enables instant peer-to-peer transfers while adhering to regulatory frameworks [5][6] Company Overview - Figure Certificate Company is registered with the SEC as a face-amount certificate company under the Investment Company Act of 1940, ensuring regulatory oversight for YLDS [2] - The company has submitted letters to the SEC regarding YLDS trading pairs as a settlement mechanism for non-security crypto assets, indicating proactive regulatory engagement [7] Industry Context - The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) serves as the benchmark interest rate for dollar-denominated loans and derivatives, having replaced LIBOR in 2023 [3] - YLDS provides a yield-bearing alternative to traditional stablecoins, which typically maintain a fixed one-dollar peg without yielding returns [4][6] - The collaboration between Figure and Mysten Labs aims to connect regulated financial products with blockchain technology, reflecting a trend towards integrating traditional finance with digital assets [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the Money Market Fund (MMF) industry in the United States, with total MMF assets under management (AUM) projected to approach $8 trillion by year-end 2025, driven by strong institutional inflows and seasonal trends [2][8][11]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Current AUM Status**: As of July 17, 2025, total MMF AUM is $7.439 trillion, slightly below the record high of $7.463 trillion reached on July 1, 2025. The AUM is expected to climb towards $8 trillion in the second half of the year due to seasonal inflows [11][20]. - **Inflows and Demand**: Year-to-date inflows into MMFs have reached $266 billion, accounting for approximately 30% of total inflows from 2024. Retail funds have been the primary driver of this increase, constituting 38% of total AUM but accounting for 66% of total inflows [12][17]. - **Institutional Inflows**: Institutional inflows have been volatile but have picked up since the April tax date, making up 34% of total year-to-date inflows, amounting to $89 billion [14]. - **Market Dynamics**: The MMF industry is experiencing a shift back to Treasury bills (T-bills) following the resolution of the debt limit, with an aggregate demand of $700 billion for bills anticipated in the second half of 2025 [2][8][20]. - **Risks to Supply**: There are concerns regarding the adequacy of bill supply due to lower financing needs, which may lead to insufficient net bill issuance to meet demand [8][20]. Additional Important Insights - **Macro Environment**: Factors contributing to a more uncertain macro environment include tariff rhetoric, changing global geopolitics, and concerns about the US growth outlook, which have made cash allocations more appealing to both institutional and retail investors [21][22]. - **Corporate Cash Management**: A survey indicated that 84% of organizations reported an increase or stability in cash balances over the past year, with 79% expecting similar trends in the near term. Safety and liquidity are prioritized over yield in cash investment policies [25][28]. - **Repo Market Dynamics**: The allocation to repo has increased significantly, with total repo outside of the RRP reaching a multi-year high of $2.71 trillion. This reflects the growing demand for repo financing amid attractive private market rates [55][56]. - **T-bill Holdings**: MMF holdings of T-bills have decreased, with a notable decline in the 30-60 day maturity bucket, indicating caution around potential x-date concerns [39][36]. Conclusion - The MMF industry is poised for growth towards $8 trillion in AUM, driven by strong inflows and a shift back to T-bills. However, risks related to supply and macroeconomic uncertainties remain significant. The focus on safety and liquidity in corporate cash management reflects broader market sentiments.