Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the transportation industry or specific companies within it. Core Insights - The report indicates a potential surge in freight volumes from China to the US, driven by expected increases in imports at the Port of Los Angeles, with vessel traffic projected to rise by 6% and TEUs by 39% in the coming weeks [3][4][5] - Trade uncertainty remains high due to recent court involvement over tariffs, which could impact inflation, consumer spending, and global freight flows [2][7] - The report outlines three potential scenarios for trade dynamics in 2025, with a focus on the implications of a 90-day tariff pause with China [10][11][12] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact and Freight Trends - The report tracks high-frequency data to assess the ongoing impact of tariffs on global supply chains, noting that while there has been a recent decline in freight volumes from China, a rebound is anticipated [5][6][14] - Container rates have shown volatility, with a recent uptick followed by flattening, indicating potential shifts in demand and supply dynamics [15][38] Trade Volume Analysis - Year-over-year (YoY) comparisons show a significant drop in laden container vessels from China to the US, with a decrease of 37% YoY and TEUs down by 34% YoY [22][14] - The report estimates that April saw an increase of approximately $4 billion in imports compared to the previous year, while May experienced a decline of about $3 billion [4][61] Future Scenarios and Economic Implications - The report presents two broad scenarios for 2025: a pull-forward surge in activity or a continued slowdown due to uncertainty, impacting inventory levels and freight demand [7][11] - Potential outcomes include a strong second half of 2025 if consumer demand rebounds or a bear case scenario if economic conditions worsen [12][15] Company-Specific Insights - Companies such as FedEx, UPS, and freight forwarders like Expeditors International and C.H. Robinson are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of increased freight activity during periods of volatility [15][85] - The report notes that intermodal traffic has declined by 5% YoY, reflecting ongoing challenges in the transportation sector [47][15]

Investment Rating - The report reiterates a Buy rating on InPost with a price target of EUR 19.5, indicating a potential upside of approximately 33% [1]. Core Insights - InPost's share price has decreased by 12% year-to-date and 8% following the 1Q25 results, which were broadly in line with expectations. The management's cautious outlook on parcel volumes in Poland is attributed to weaker consumer sentiment and geopolitical uncertainties [1][15]. - Despite the cautious tone, there are indications of potential volume upside as Allegro anticipates a slight acceleration in GMV growth in 2Q, and April retail sales showed marked improvement compared to 1Q25 [1][15]. - Operationally, InPost has demonstrated strong execution, with a 10% year-over-year increase in volumes in Poland and an adjusted EBITDA margin expansion to 47.9% [2][16]. Financial Performance - InPost's revenue forecast for 2025 is PLN 14,893.6 million, with an expected EBITA of PLN 2,688.2 million and EPS of PLN 3.22 [4][12]. - The company is trading at an EV/EBITDA of 8x for the next 12 months, which is about a 20% discount compared to its three-year average [3][9]. - The adjusted EBITDA margin in the Eurozone improved to 13.5%, driven by a 29% year-over-year increase in B2C volumes and a 70 percentage point surge in APM usage [2][16]. Market Dynamics - InPost's performance in Poland remains resilient, with a 10% volume growth year-over-year, supported by an 18% increase in SME volumes [2][16]. - The Eurozone is experiencing a shift towards B2C, with volumes growing by 11% year-over-year, indicating a positive trend in the market [2][16]. - The integration of Yodel is a key focus for InPost in the UK, with early results showing a pro forma volume increase of 4x year-over-year and significant improvements in cost-to-serve [2][16]. Strategic Initiatives - InPost is well-positioned to unlock synergies from the Yodel integration and expand its APM reach in underserved rural areas, which is expected to enhance both volumes and margins in the second half of 2025 and beyond [15][16]. - The company is deepening its cross-border and merchant ecosystem, with cross-border sales now accounting for 20% of Eurozone volume [16][17]. Consumer Trends - Recent data indicates that real retail sales in Poland grew by 6.4% in April, suggesting a recovery in consumer sentiment [18][21]. - E-commerce sales in Poland also showed growth, with an 8.2% year-over-year increase in April, driven by order growth and an increase in average order value [22][23].

Company Actions - United Parcel Service (UPS) announced it will cut approximately 20,000 jobs, representing about 4% of its workforce, and close 73 facilities to reduce costs amid economic uncertainty and a potential decrease in business from its largest customer, Amazon [1][5] - UPS previously reached an agreement with Amazon to reduce shipping volume by 50% by the second half of 2026, with Amazon accounting for 11.8% of UPS' overall revenue in 2024 [5] Economic Context - A slowdown in global trade is expected to decrease the demand for shipping services, which could negatively impact parcel delivery companies [2] - UPS CEO Carol Tome highlighted that the current trade environment presents unprecedented challenges not seen in over a century [2] Financial Implications - UPS anticipates expenses between $400 million and $600 million related to separation benefits and lease-related cuts in 2025 following previous workforce reductions [6] - The company is also facing a decline in volume from e-commerce sellers linked to China, such as Temu and Shein, due to new tariffs on previously duty-free goods [9] Strategic Initiatives - To assist customers with tariff and trade policy changes, UPS launched a website providing updates and expert connections [9] - UPS introduced a new Global Checkout service that displays customs fees and duties on international purchases at checkout [10]

Core Insights - UPS plans to cut 20,000 jobs by 2025 as part of a cost-cutting initiative due to soft demand from major customers [1] - The company aims to save $3.5 billion in 2025 through these job cuts and the closure of 73 facilities by the end of June [1] - UPS reported a slight revenue decline to $21.5 billion in Q1 2025, down 0.7% year-over-year, while adjusted operating profit increased by 0.9% to $1.7 billion [2] - The company has withdrawn its financial guidance for the year due to uncertainties related to the impact of tariffs [2][3] Company Actions - Job cuts of 20,000 and closure of 73 facilities are part of a strategy to enhance operational efficiency [1] - The CEO stated that these actions will position UPS as a stronger and more agile company [1] Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was reported at $21.5 billion, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous year [2] - Adjusted operating profit for the same period was $1.7 billion, showing a modest increase [2] Market Outlook - The company has refrained from providing a full-year financial outlook due to macroeconomic uncertainties and tariff impacts [3]